I'm not sure why it's blasphemous to talk about hypotheticals.
But to answer the question, no. I think Jax and Barr each get more first place votes, but it's probably still like 46 first place votes for Mesenbrink, 14 for Jax and 11 for Barr at best for the others.
If Mesenbrink had lost a close one and Jax had MD'd Davino, I think it gets a lot more interesting.