fishbane

Crookham already redshirted during the 2022-2023 season. He wouldn't just need a medical, he'd also need a 6th year waiver. The second part was routinely denied in the past, but are much more common now. The average medical redshirt situation would be a wrestler who has never redshirted in the past that gets injured less than halfway through the season. Logan Stieber's freshman year would be an example. I don't know that you get granted a 6th year waiver in advance though. He might have to wait until his 5th year to get granted the 6th. Even if it now can be granted in advance, I doubt there would be any clarity on that front by March. I'd expect it to some down to how Crookham feels and if he's ready to compete. He'd be weighing the chance of winning this year in whatever state of health he is in vs the chance of being granted a 6th year. In any event, there isn't really any need to make a decision now unless Stanich or someone else pulling a redshirt would be his replacement. In that case you'd want that person in the lineup asap to try and get enough matches to get an AQ for the conference.

Anyone remember the Nebraska-PSU student announcers from years ago? They had no clue what they were watching. So many stallmates and illegal leg trips. Were these recent broadcasts as bad as this? I doubt it. https://youtu.be/7E7TQMFXYHA?si=SCVz5pSve_9cRqK8 https://youtu.be/f8zKqv8drxQ?si=gAeY5pFve82F4mpU

It nearly happened with the Stieners and Hugheses at Iowa and PSU, respectively, in the early 1990s. I think Troy Stiener beat John Hughes in a dual in the 1992 season whilst Russ Hughes redshirted. The next reason Terry Stiener beat Russ Hughes in the dual, but John Hughes redshirted. After that both Stieners graduated.

This topic was discussed on FRL today in the questions segment. It sounded like the consensus was they would not quite be a top 10 team, but would qualify 10 guys. The lineup they considered featured both Nagao and Facundo. Sounds like it was roughly as I've laid out below, though they didn't discuss every weight. They seemed to think Nagao, Facundo, and Ryder could place. The Mirasolas they thought maybe not quite be there and Sealey they thought possibly could AA, but that was solely based on Sanderson's paise. The average 10th place team over the past 25 years had 51.25 team points and 3.11 AAs. The minimum number of team points was 40.5 in 2012. The fewest AAs by a 10 place team was 2 which has happened 3x over that timespan. Every time the 10th place team only had 2 AAs one was a champion. 125 Kurt McHenry 133 Aaron Nagao 141 Cael Nasedo 149 David Evans 157 Joe Sealey 165 Alex Facundo 174 Matt Lee 184 Zack Ryder 197 Connor Mirasola 285 Cole Mirasola https://www.youtube.com/live/hGGuXTmNNL8?si=jKHH0Z4_e29QZQjD&t=4122

Is the last column WrestleStat? I'm only seeing three top 33 wrestlers for Purdue at WrestleStat.

I thought Navy was the closer match and I based it on their dual performance last year. This time last year Navy was undefeated, WS had them ranked #16 and there was a case for them as a top ten dual team. I recall thinking at the time a top ten dual team without a top ten wrestler in the lineup. Wouldn't that be interesting? A team that is greater than the sum of its parts. The case for them to be considered a top ten dual team was pretty straightforward. They had beaten Pittsburgh by a fair margin and Pittsburgh had beaten Ohio State who was ranked #3 by WS at the time. So Navy>Pitt>Ohio State. Navy had also defeated Illinois, so Pitt wasn't their only significant win. They probably had 6 wrestlers in the top 30 at the time. Ultimately it ended up not working out. Navy dropped a series of duals late in the season and David Key finished 8th at NCAAs. So they had a top ten wrestler and weren't a top ten dual team. On the tournament side if you take Navy's 2024 NCAA points (13) and add Parker Keckeisen's 2024 points (26) to it you get very close to UNI's 2024 NCAA point total (39.5). UNI is better this year than last, but Keckeisen may score fewer points this year too. I also think this could be the high water mark for UNI in the WS rankings. The Nebraska win was a great result, but we may look at Nebraska a little differently after Big Ten duals. They made a lot of lineup changes and the rankings still have lingering effects of the wrestlers performance at their old weights. On the other side UNI is likely to take a loss or two in Big 12 duals. It's possible. I think UNI without Keckeisen would probably be pretty close to the average UNI team under Schwab. 8-6 dual record, 1 AA, ranked in the 10-20 range with about 7 NCAA qualifiers. They would have a big win over a top ten team, but also lose to an unranked team. UNI the past 2-4 years would be below that average without him. I was wrong about Schwab at UNI - they had a top ten team in 2014. They were 13-0 with 7 NQ and 3 AAs. WS had them ranked #10 in duals. Their AAs were Colon (3rd), Labor (6th), and Peters (6th). Ryan Loder was also on that team. He had placed at NCAAs the year before. Moore was also seeded 10th at NCAAs. For some reason UNI had their finish at 15th for this year in their media guide so I missed it. It's better than I thought, still if the high mark now is a borderline top ten team and that's a landslide ahead of everyone else that isn't great. In the past multiple top 10 and top 5 finishes by miid tier program were possible. Now PSU might have a second team better than UNI. I get it, but things take time. Turnbull didn't have a top 10-15 team for his first 10 or so years. Things need to line up just right too and it's gotten a little harder to do recently. These recruits he's getting aren't top 10-15 guys. With 80 AA places each year distributed over 4-5 recruiting classes. Only the top 16-20 guys in a class are really projected to make the podium. Recently there have been more guys getting 6th and 7th years of eligibility. A recruit like Titus came along at exactly the wrong time. I think if you look at # of AAs and national champs per recruiting class there will be fewer in the class of 2021 and to a lesser extent subsequent years due to COVID. Conversely the class of 2020 will probably have a peak in AAs and champs that it doesn't really deserve. Things are finally starting to clear out and get back to normal. WVU nearly had a big win over ISU last night. All they needed to win was a healthy Watters to wrestle and beat Painero Johnson. Unfortunately, Watters is injured and out for the year. WVU will do well to equal their 2024 finish without him.

In the past doing the most with less could be Mike DeAnna at Edinboro, Bruce Baumgartner at Edinboro, Tim Flynn at Edinboro, Jack Spates at Cornell, Rob Koll at Cornell, Brian Smith at Missouri, or Kevin Dresser at Virginia Tech. These all produced top ten teams with multiple AAs and solid dual squads. Now a UNI that placed 14th last year with 1 AA is a landslide ahead of everyone else? That's a landslide or two behind what was previously possible. I didn't say nor imply that 2025 UNI would be akin to the 2024 Air Force Academy lineup - all one guy. They are better than that. Your comparison could have been close if Hendrickson had chosen a different branch of the service. UNI is like if you added Parker Keckeisen to the 2024 Navy lineup or maybe 2025 Army. Kolat and Kevin Ward do a good job with their programs but you have Schwab a landslide ahead of them at UNI. That landslide could be named Parker Keckeisen. I also think that you are underestimating the job Tim Flynn has done at WVU. Last year they finished 17th at NCAAs with was their best finish in 20 years. They had 2 AAs which is one more than UNI and the first time they had 2 AAs in a season since Greg Jones graduated. But it's not all about NCAAs. At Big 12s they were just 2.5 points back of Doug Schwab's landslide. When Flynn took over WVU had produced 4AA finishes by two wrestlers (Rader and Moisey) in the previous 13 years. Flynn has 5 AAs in 5 tournaments. He might have even had an NCAA champ had the 2020 tournament not been cancelled. This is Schwab's 15th season in Cedar Falls and he has coached 15AAs to date. Flynn coached 33 in 21 seasons in Edinboro.

It's really an indictment of the times if Schwab takes this by a landslide. All of UNI's AA finishes over the past 5 seasons have been by one wrestler Parker Keckeisen. Schwab's done a good job, but he's had 15 years to build things up and hasn't cracked the top 10 - maybe this will be the year? If Luke Smith gets 3 years out of Ferrari at Bakersfield he's probably ahead. From 3-33 over the past 3 years to possibly top 20? at NCAAs. Smith didn't even have an assistant at the start of the season.

I don't think the roster cap of 30 does anything for competitive balance in wrestling. Since NIL the scholarship limit doesn't do squat, but I have a hard time believing the big programs are paying NIL exceeding the cost of tuition more than 3 deep at each weight. I guess it is theoretically possible for a team to pay 50 guys just to hoard them from competitors, but that isn't really going to happen. The suggestion earlier in the thread that teams could enter multiple wrestlers per weight in the post season would harm competitive balance more than not having a roster limit. You'd see more top teams with 2nd teams that could win duals against the mid tier programs.

Why would you exclude walk-ons? With a scholarship limit of 9.9 it would seam like no teams would satisfy the criteria of 30 scholarship athletes.

My mistake.

I don't think he will. He's a blue chip, but since winning Cadet Worlds he really hasn't progressed at the rate of the other top PSU recruits. He lost convincingly at Who's Number One? to Ferrari and even though it was much closer the second time he wasn't really close to scoring on Ferrari. He also hasn't been all that close to making a Junior world team and PSU has a room full of guys 157lbs and up the have made junior world teams. Next year the PSU roster 157lbs and up will look like this 157: Kasak (NCAA 3rd, 2 years/1 redshirt left), Facundo (Made a junior world team, at least 2 years/0 redshirts left) 165: Mesenbrink (NCAA 2nd, Junior world champ, 2 years/0 redshirts left) 174: Levi Haines (NCAA Champ, lost to Mesenbrink in junior world trials finals, 1 year/1 redshirt left), 184: Zack Ryder (Junior world runner up, 4 years/0 redshirts left) 197: Josh Barr (Junior world runner up, 3 years/0 redshirts remaining), Connor Mirasola (Junior world 5th this year, qualified for the Olympic trials, 4 years/0 redshirts remaining) Sealey's best chance is probably at 157lbs, but I wouldn't bet that he could make that. Even in 2026-2027 I don't see how he makes the team. Levi Haines is gone, but there is either a very good wrestler coming up (Facundo or Mesenbrink) or a very good wrestler coming down (Ryder?). Josh Barr is a little undersized at 197 and purchased a cow in the offseason to try and bulk up. Maybe with Starocci gone he goes down to 184 if he considers that his best weight which in turn sends Ryder down. I'm sure a lot of people would like to see Connor Mirasola in the lineup at 197. He already has wins over NCAA Champs/AAs. There will also be some recruits from the class of 2025 coming off redshirt. PJ Duke (#2 Class of 2024, Junior World medalist) is likely a 157lber and William Henckel (#15 class of 2025, beat Sealey at junior world trials) could be a 174. Where does Sealey make the lineup?

I agree with this. Everyone seems to think that Ferrari was the one that pushed this, but it very well could have been Arnold. If indeed it was Arnold's desire to wrestle at his best weight that pushed Kennedy out then it wouldn't be out of the question that Ferrari still redshirts. Nelson Brands may move up to cover 184 if he loses to Arnold. With it taking 4 weeks for Arnold to drop we may not have clarity on this for some time. Ferrari still has a few competition dates remaining before he must decide on his redshirt. He could wrestle 184 in duals until Arnold drops and Brands/Arnold settle business at 184 after which the loser returns to 184 and Ferrari defers eligibility.

I don't think this is accurate. I think Ferrari would wrestle Starocci at 197lbs. I think he wants no part of wrestling Starocci or anyone else at 184lbs. Initially Starocci said he planning to go up to 197 at some point he changed that to 184lbs. To me at this point Starocci is more to blame for the match not happening than Ferrari. If Starocci offered the match at 197lbs then my opinion would change.

The speculation is to 174lbs.

Here are Sanderson's comments on Facundo from mid December. “He tweaked something,” Sanderson said. “It could be a few weeks to several weeks. I don’t think it’s [going to require] any kind of surgery or anything, but he probably won’t be on the mat for a couple weeks.”

Didn't Ferrari beat Sealey decisively at some high school event? I recall Flo elevating Ferrari to the #1 P4P recruit after this. In any event a lot seems to changed from high school for these two. They look to be two weight classes apart at the moment.

Including Sealey doesn't improve the Wrestlestat dual predictions for the second tier Nittany Lions. Wrestlestat doesn't have any data for Sealey. He's ranked #236 and 0-0. It actually makes them worse. Subbing Sealey for Dunbar makes the Purdue match 17-17 and ASU is also a tie at 20-20. Little Rock and Illinois remain unchanged. Ohio State gains a team point, but the dual result isn't impacted.

Yeah I forgot about him. Hasn't wrestled this season. Their best team 2 is likely 149 Evans 157 Facundo 165 Sealey

These are valid points. I wasn't sure of including Evans and Nagao since they haven't wrestled this season. Nagao's injury wasn't reported as season ending. I think Sanderson said he wasn't healthy to start the season, and I suspect that if he doesn't return angling for an injury year may be involved. If PSU needed him he'd be back for conferences. If Evan's weighed in for a dual then he likely ready to go. I have him at 149, but maybe he's a 157. I'll keep him where he's at. He might weigh in at 157 more because with Facundo sidelined PSU doesn't have another 157 whereas at 149 they have a couple of backup options. Facundo's injury did not sound serious. Sanderson said he "tweaked something" and have a timeline of a few to several weeks to return. Though if this dual took place today he likely wouldn't feature. Overall I think the lineup is pretty fair. I think all of these guys will compete at these weights at least once this year. If someone was out for the season I wouldn't include them, but I don't think that's the case with Nagao, Evans, or Funcundo. It might be skewed slightly in PSU's favour if they aren't all healthy at the same time, but if this team were entered at big Tens I'd bet they'd be available. If we were to try and make the best possible dual lineup for the second team, it might be Pierce at 149, Evans at 157 and Facundo up at 165, but that may be hard to simulate and Evans and Facundo may prefer to be down. When Askren returned for an episode of FRL a few weeks ago he said PSU has "a second team that's likely a top 10 NCAA tournament team." I thought that was an overstatement. OSU was 10th last year and they had 3AAs with 2 finalists. I'm not sure I see that coming from this group, but Askren may. Two of the backups are AWA guys he likely has them as high AAs if not national champs in his mind.

Recently PSU sent 9 wrestlers (all backups and redshirts) to the Southern Scuffle and they finished tied for 2nd in the team standings with Oklahoma and 6 points behind Army. PSU obviously didn't send their best 10 backups to the Scuffle. They didn't even enter a 157 and their backup 157 (Facundo) is pretty good and probably a top 10 guy. Still they finished level with Oklahoma (#19 in Internet's Dual Rankings) and 6 points behind Army (#24 in IM DR). How good are PSU's backups? Are they top 25? Top 20? Top 15? Top 10? For the purposes of this discussion lets have PSU's team 2 as following 125 Kurt McHenry (#39 Wrestlestat, 5th at the Scuffle) 133 Aaron Nago (#12 WS, 5th NCAA's 2023, R12 2024, 0-0 this season, not at Scuffle) 141 Cael Nasedo (#59 WS, 5-3 this season, won the Edinboro Open over the weekend, not at Scuffle) 149 David Evans (#22 WS, 12-3 last season, has not wrestled this season, not at Scuffle) 157 Alex Facundo (#25 WS, NQ 165 in 2023, 5-1 this season, not at Scuffle) 165 Aurelius Dunbar (#122 WS, 3-2 this season, 3-2 DNP at Scuffle) 174 Matt Lee (#48 WS, 2-0 this season, not at Scuffle) 184 Zack Ryder (#11 WS, 8-0 this season, won Scuffle) 197 Connor Mirasola (#31 WS, 8-1 this season, won Scuffle) 285 Cole Mirasola (#23 WS, 8-0 this season, won Scuffle) With this lineup they likely win the Scuffle. Nagao wasn't at the Scuffle and he probable outscores PSU's entry (Steen) who went 2-2. Nasedo wasn't there either and instead won the Edinobo Open last weekend. He probably would have been a points improvement over Levin. Evan's wasn't at the Scuffle, but PSU sent Pierce (#36 WS) who made the finals. Facundo likely would have placed at 157. At 174 PSU sent Kelly, but Lee would have been a better option. Lee beat the Army starter earlier this season and that guy was 5th at the Scuffle. I'd say PSU's optimal lineup of backups is a better team than either Oklahoma or Army and would have won the Scuffle against this year's field. I also did some dual simulations with this lineup on Wrestlestat. PSU T2 over #25 (Intermat Dual Ranking) Purdue 17-16 PSU T2 over #20 (IM DR) ASU 20-19 PSU T2 over #15 (IM DR) Little Rock 19-13 #10 (IM DR) Illinois over PSU T2 20-12 #5 (IM DR) Ohio State over PSU T2 25-9 (note - inserting Lucas Cochran at 197 makes this 22-12.)

Thats unclear. Maybe he was closer to beating Ramazanov than Lee was to besting Higuchi, but he'd still have to defeat Yazdani in the final. There is no guarantee Yazdani would get injured in this match.

Bellarmine head coach Ned Schuck belongs in this group too. He was at Iowa from 2000-2005 which was during Zalesky's term, but Brands was there as an assistant for some of it. I can't think of anyone that Brands coached during his time as a head coach that is/has been a D1 head coach.

Since that post Smith and Borrelli have retired. Penn announced a plan to transition from Reina to Valenti after this season. I apparently had the wrong Nate Carr and I missed a bunch of others. Roger Reina 1984 graduate of the University of Pennsylvania. Current Penn head coach - plans to retire April 1 2025. Kenny Monday 1984 graduate of OSU. 63 years old. Current Morgan State head coach. Mark Manning 1985 graduate of University of Nebraska-Omaha. Nebraska Lincoln head coach. Mark Cody 1985 graduate of University of Missouri. Head coach Presbyterian College. Kevin Dresser 1986 graduate of the University of Iowa. 62 years old. ISU head coach. Tim Flynn 1987 graduate of PSU. Current WVU head coach. Rob Koll 1988 graduate of UNC Chapel Hill. UNC head coach. Glen Lanham 1988 graduate of OSU. Duke head coach. Pat Santoro 1989 graduate of Pitt. Lehigh head coach. Joel Greenlee 1989 graduate of UNI. Ohio head coach Larry Jones 1990 graduate of ASU. 58 years old. ASU head coach. Jay Weiss 1990 graduate of F&M. Harvard head coach. Brian Smith 1990 graduate of Michigan State. Head coach Missouri. Tom Brands 1992 graduate of Iowa. 56 years old. Iowa head coach. Tom Ryan 1993 graduate of Iowa. Ohio State head coach. John Hangey 1993 graduate of Rider. Rider head coach. Sean Bormet 1994 graduate of Michigan. Michigan head coach. Brands isn't too old to coach at this level, though he may never win another national team title. On the mat his teams have done very well and a change isn't justified. Realistically he is unlikely to still be the coach 10 years from now. Coaching at a place like Iowa or OSU is a high pressure experience and most still aren't doing this at his age. He is currently 56. His predecessor, Zalesky was out in Iowa City at 46 years old. Gable retired early at 49 and his predecessor, Kurdelmeier, moved to a different position at 40 years of age. It is similar at OSU. Smith retired at age 58 after last season. His predecessor Joe Seay was only 52 when he found himself out of the job. His predecessor Tommy Chesbro got the axe at 45 years old. Myron Roderick had handed over the reigns to Chesbro when he was only 35.

Besik Kudukhov