There is no data to support this, though. He is beating on guys that he was beating on before when he was two weights down? Is there a measurable difference in the gap that has widened between him, Paddy, Hepner, etc? I have also seen videos of him training... most of us had, and that is why we are saying that we need to temper expectations.
We will all root for him to win, I don't know a soul that won't, but nobody in their right mind would pick him over Mesenbrink without actually seeing him take the mat against someone of some sort of merit at 165lbs.