Valencia’s freestyle résumé far outshines his folkstyle record. At 141 lbs, his folkstyle results aren’t exceptional: he dropped two razor-thin decisions to All-American–caliber opponents, and while he notched a 5-4 win over Rivera (Round of 16) and an 11-6 victory against Iowa’s JV Ryder Block, those wins alone don’t yet peg him as a title contender at that weight.
He’s only stepped above 143.3 lbs once in recent years - an outing at 157 lbs against HEW Ed Scott that ended in a 13-3 major-decision defeat. Still, I believe he has a tremendous amount of upside beyond his current #26 ranking at 141 lbs on Wrestlestat, which would translate to roughly #22 at 149 lbs.
Projecting to 149 lbs, I could see him matching up with the likes of Andrew Clark, Josh Edmond, and Jack Gioffre, which puts him in the Round-of-12/16 conversation. Back down at 141 lbs, similar R12/R16 matchups against Ryan Jack, Danny Pucino, and Julian Tagg seem realistic. Cracking the top 5–8 at 141 lbs feels slightly more attainable, especially since we haven’t yet seen how he adapts to 149 lbs. Stanich, Lemley, and Bailey seem more doable than McNeil, Stiles, and Williams.
One more question: could Valencia wrestle EJ Parco for the starting spot? I’d favor Valencia in that matchup - but would the coaches put Parco out, who if I understand correctly the coaching staff loves? Hell, after last season, I would prefer a lineup bump from 141 - 174. That puts Monteiro out, but I don't think Monteiro is the answer for them at 184lbs (I did last year, but felt proven wrong).
Ramblings of an old man... sorry.