1032004

If anything Hamiti probably has more incentive to duck the dual (although I’d be shocked if he did). If O’Toole wins the dual but loses at Big 12’s then Haines likely has an argument for the #1 seed

Seeding wise I don’t see the downside to O’Toole wrestling in the dual against Hamiti. If he wins B12’s he’s still likely the #1 seed

I believe Askren said on FRL that he was likely to redshirt regardless of Elam’s situation.

Obviously there are plenty of novice 106 pounders that were pulled out of the hallways, but on the whole they tend to be much more experienced and better technical wrestlers than 220’s/heavyweights. @BruceyB pretty much summed up what my response would have been:

Zain has always had a massive cut to get to 65, I think that’s more just about how big he is in general and there only being 6 Olympic weights vs having anything to do with the college weight. Has Henson said he plans on going 65kg at all? Mendez seemed to do fairly well at 65 though… That said, I’d be fine with changing 133/141/149 to 135/143/150 or something like that if you want 143 to be closer to 65 kg

Yeah other than the insults, I was most confused by the comments about upperweight wrestlers being enticed by NIL opportunities to play football. How exactly would making more upperweight classes in wrestling change this? It’s also not all that different than in the past, since with 85 scholarships and many more schools offering football scholarships, it has always been far easier to get a football scholarship than a wrestling scholarship.

Yeah I think we mostly agree. I did call out that we don’t know the ratio of total guys staying the same weight vs moving up. Are we really sure more guys stay the same vs going up? I have no idea. But if you wouldn’t count someone that bumped up in a previous year as having bumped up, then that would make the numbers even more in favor of the non-bumpers. To that point, I agree that I’d like to see which weights have the highest % of success when bumping up, but along the same lines it would have to be in context with the total number of guys making the jump. For example my hypothesis would be that 125 to 133 is the most common jump for guys to make, but would have the lowest success %, and 197 to heavyweight would have the highest %, but likely a lower number of total guys that made the jump.

What is your non-anecdotal evidence? Let’s look at Midlands as an example (and these numbers are not uncommon): 285: 25 entries 197: 21 entries 141: 31 entries 149: 34 entries Soldier Salute: 285: 20 entries 197: 19 entries 141: 21 entries 149: 28 entries If college closer aligned with international weights, that would mean combining 141 & 149, where we have among the highest participation, into one weight, and adding an additional weight where we have among the lowest. It doesn’t make sense. But again, I’m on board with increasing 184 and 197 to better align.

Yeah so you want an additional weight between 197 and heavyweight, and to lose a middleweight. What is your opinion about shifting 184 and 197 up?

I did it a few posts up for 2022-2024.

You also repeated the question you asked about national champs to me. But honestly looking at champs is probably a good start. And again, I agree that as a whole (so not just champs), many guys do just as good or better as they move up in weight, but many don’t (albeit generally not guys who were already champs). I still disagree that talking about what guys did in future years after the year being discussed is relevant though. Over the last 3 seasons, in the years they won, more often than not the champs had not yet moved up in weight during their career.

Thanks. True, forgot you were only looking at multiple time AA’s.

Thank you kind sir. Any way to see guys that went from 197 to heavyweight compared to other weight bumps?

I said “lol wut” because I was confused how you were trying to claim that 3 guys that won titles before moving up in weight somehow proves your point. Your argument has been that guys typically IMPROVE as they move up in weight. If they already won a title down a weight before moving up, that’s generally not really improving. And you were the one that first focused on champs. Here’s one of your earlier statements: “Lets take the NCs each year every year and see how they did as a Jr and Sr vs Fresh and Soph. Where do you think there's a bigger correlation? Their grade or the weight?” You were also the one that turned this into an overall moving up vs cutting or staying the same argument. Yes, plenty of guys do just as good or better when moving up. But plenty of guys struggle too. But for guys going from 197 to heavyweight, that struggle is pretty rare, and again, you continuing to try to use a guy that was undefeated going into NCAA’s as an example of that is pretty funny (Bastida has also only wrestled one NCAA tourney at heavyweight btw). Got any other examples? My overall point in posting originally was more in response to @bnwtwg and I think a couple others who have repeatedly claimed in other threads that there should be an ADDITIONAL weight in between 197 and heavyweight. I strongly disagree with that. I’m totally on board with shifting 184 and 197 up though. I would say 270+ would be “full sized” IMO. I do think it’s interesting that you’d consider 250 to be “full sized” after previously commenting about the “90 lb gap.”

That still gives 1 advancement point

Guessing stuff like this will start happening in wrestling if it hasn’t already - Tulsa football players claiming they never received NIL money that was promised. The QB interviewed Legas was apparently a 2x Utah state wrestling champ. https://www.fox23.com/news/tu-football-players-express-frustrations-over-not-receiving-nil-money-they-say-former-coach-promised/article_6a5f7da4-b11c-11ef-bd67-df089fe7c661.html

Looking at some of the favorites for this year between 133-197 133: could go either way, Crookham/Byrd/Bouzakis/Bailey career 133’s so far, Ayala/Davis up from 125 141: could go either way, Alirez and Bartlett down from 149 (yes I know Bartlett wasn’t a real 149 but also was never a 133), Mendez up from 133 149: Henson/Van Ness/Watters career 149’s, Parco only wrestled 141 as a redshirt. Lovett did do the rare 2 weight bump and AA’d at the higher weight after not AA’ing at the lower one 157: Shapiro career 157 so far, Kasak up from 149 165: Mesenbrink career 165 so far 174: O’Toole/Haines/Hamiti all up 184: Starocci up from 174, Keckeisen career 184 197: Buchanan/Cardenas/Ferrari/Little career 197’s so far, Barr up from 184 So in all likelihood we’ll see a career 165 win there, and someone bumping up win 174. 133, 149, 197 I’d lean towards a non-bumper 184 lean towards a bumper 141 and 157 tossups

Lol wut? For one, if your argument is guys doing BETTER as they move up, then technically you should not be including prior champs… But I was, although it only makes sense to focus on that particular year. But to help you out should probably exclude 125 and heavyweight since 125’s can’t move up and my argument is that 197’s do well moving up. So even doing that, of the remaining 8 weights, in the last 3 tournaments 14 had not wrestled at a lower weight previously and 10 had. Also was Parris really “full sized”? I thought he was about 250ish?

2022 125 - Suriano - down from 133 133 - RBY - same weight 141 - Lee - same weight 149 - Yianni - previously up from 141 157 - Deakin - previously up from 149 165 - O’Toole - same weight 174 - Starocci - same weight 184 - Brooks - same weight 197 - Dean - up from 184 285 - Gable - same weight So among champs, it certainly seems more common to stay at the same weight than move up. Just not sure of the index compared to total people that move up or stay the same.

2023 champs: 125 - Glory - same weight 133 - Vito - up from 125 141 - Alirez - previously down from 149 149 - Yianni - previously up from 141 157 - O’Connor - previously up from 149 165 - O’Toole - same weight 174 - Starocci - same weight 184 - Brooks - same weight 197 - Nino - previously up from 184 285 - Parris - same weight

Laird fits in with your pattern of “doing better as he got older,” but he’s not an example of bumping up to heavyweight from 197 and doing worse. Here let’s look at last year’s champs: 125 - Figueroa - same weight 133 - Vito - previously moved up from 125 141 - Mendez - up from 133 149 - Henson - same weight 157 - Haines - same weight 165 - O’Toole - same weight 174 - Starocci - same weight 184 - Keckeisen - same weight 197 - Brooks - up from 184 285 - Kerk - same weight So of last year’s champs, 7 of them were at the same weight they had been for their entire career. Of course 125’s don’t have the option of a lower weight and 3 of the others have since moved up for this season, but at least one of them will not be an NCAA champ this year.

To your first question, no that’s not what I was saying. I agree that guys tend to do better as they get older regardless of weight class. I just think that except for going from 197 to heavyweight, the improvement is probably better for guys that stay at the same weight or go down compared to guys that move up. And yes, going down isn’t very common. But staying at the same weight for 3 or 4 years is so was kinda just lumping in going down with that. I was not the one that brought up 125/133. Yes it was part of your larger point but you were the one that said “125’s often do better at 133” and I was just saying I think that’s probably the toughest jump for guys to make. Good call on McGee, I did not catch him. Looks like Scott Parker of Lehigh is another. Although you could also argue McGee was helped by transferring from ODU to ASU (he also redshirted after transfering and in between the move from 125 to 133). I would not say that Lamont is an argument in your favor, we don’t know how he would have done in 2020 but overall he was clearly better at 125 than 133 regardless of age. He went: 125 - 25-5, R12 133 - 15-7, tourney cancelled 125 - 13-3, 5th 125 - 12-6, R16 133 - 11-16, 0-2

Of active coaches (so not Gable or John Smith), I’d guess Rob Koll might have the biggest tree of head coaches if we include both former wrestlers and assistants: Grey - Cornell Nickerson - Northern Colorado Hahn - SDSU Leen - Brown Vinson - Buffalo

I’m not sure that I’m on board with the other poster’s argument that 197 is that much easier than 174 or 184. But heavyweight is absolutely easier than 197. Maybe @Wrestleknownothing could help but I’d be pretty confident in betting that outside of going from 197 to heavyweight, on the whole guys saw better place improvement if they stayed at the same weight or went down compared to moving up. I only mentioned that I was a lightweight to show that I’m not biased, as I would also bet that going from 125 to 133 has probably been the toughest jump for guys to make. If anything I was expecting someone to call 125 a child’s weight or something. Lots of examples of guys having success at 125 but not at 133 - Noto this year looks to be another example. Also Taylor Lamont, Rayvon Foley, Jack Mueller to name a few. Mueller is a great example as he went 125 - 6th, 133 - R12, 125 - 2nd. Again, the fact that you’re trying to use Bastida as an example of doing worse proves how tough it is to find a real example of someone going from 197 to heavyweight and doing worse. He is absolutely better as a heavyweight, but I’ll acknowledge that I’m sure some of that is due to him getting more folkstyle experience. Any other examples?

If we’re defining “prolific” as entertaining, then should probably add Ryder (tOSU) and Roman (Indiana) Rogotzke