1032004 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 I know we usually have a thread on this, don’t know if we’ve had one yet this year. Was discussed somewhat on Willie/Basch My rough estimates: 125 75% Lilledahl/Bouzakis 133 55% Byrd/Blaze/Davino 141 94% Mendez 149 55% SVN 157 60% Taylor/Duke/Cannon 165 95% Mesenbrink/Blaze/Caliendo 174 75% Haines/Minto/Kharchla 184 75% Welsh/McEnelly/Ferrari 197 70% Barr 285 50% Ferrari/Ghadiali/Feldman/Mirasola so using my percentages, that’s about 2%. Maybe not.
Jimmy Cinnabon Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Big 10 wins 7 of the 10 weights: 125 Byrd 141 Mendez 149 Young 157 Taylor 165 Mesenbrink 174 Haines 197 Barr Other conferences win: 133 Forrest 184 Sinclair HWT Bastida
PortaJohn Posted March 5 Posted March 5 (edited) 125 - I'd have Lilledahl on his own at 75%. Don't trust Bouzakis in the NCAA tourney 141- Mendez @ 99% 149 - SVN over 80% 157 - Bump Cannon out until he proves hes 100%. Shapiro alone at over 50% if he's actually healthy 165 - Mesenbrink alone at 99% 174- Haines alone at over 90% 184- Bump Ferrari until he proves he's 100%. Too high @75% 197 - Bump Barr up to over 80% Edited March 5 by PortaJohn I Don't Agree With What I Posted
nhs67 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 2 hours ago, 1032004 said: I know we usually have a thread on this, don’t know if we’ve had one yet this year. Was discussed somewhat on Willie/Basch My rough estimates: 125 75% Lilledahl/Bouzakis 133 55% Byrd/Blaze/Davino 141 94% Mendez 149 55% SVN 157 60% Taylor/Duke/Cannon 165 95% Mesenbrink/Blaze/Caliendo 174 75% Haines/Minto/Kharchla 184 75% Welsh/McEnelly/Ferrari 197 70% Barr 285 50% Ferrari/Ghadiali/Feldman/Mirasola so using my percentages, that’s about 2%. Maybe not. How is Mendez, who has two people in the bracket he has lost to in the past, a 94% and Monster Mitch with two others with him are 95%? "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
TNwrestling Posted March 5 Posted March 5 2 hours ago, PortaJohn said: 125 - Don't trust Bouzakis in the NCAA tourney I'm with you, except that this season hasn't been like past seasons. I'd say he carries a little more confidence than in previous years this month.. If Bo Bassett doesn't ever do anymore than AA two times I will delete my whole ass account.....WrestlingRash sucks
Fletcher Posted March 6 Posted March 6 5 hours ago, PortaJohn said: 125 - I'd have Lilledahl on his own at 75%. Don't trust Bouzakis in the NCAA tourney 141- Mendez @ 99% 149 - SVN over 80% 157 - Bump Cannon out until he proves hes 100%. Shapiro alone at over 50% if he's actually healthy 165 - Mesenbrink alone at 99% 174- Haines alone at over 90% 184- Bump Ferrari until he proves he's 100%. Too high @75% 197 - Bump Barr up to over 80% This is spot-on. Are we able to bet on this stuff on draftkings/fanduel? We gotta have more knowledge than the oddsetters. This isn't like the NFL or CFB where there's millions of fans setting the lines.
Tyler Perry Posted March 6 Posted March 6 5 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Big 10 wins 7 of the 10 weights: 125 Byrd 141 Mendez 149 Young 157 Taylor 165 Mesenbrink 174 Haines 197 Barr Other conferences win: 133 Forrest 184 Sinclair HWT Bastida 125 Byrd
1032004 Posted March 6 Author Posted March 6 3 hours ago, nhs67 said: How is Mendez, who has two people in the bracket he has lost to in the past, a 94% and Monster Mitch with two others with him are 95%? Well technically I was including Hardy in that number, guess I should have listed him. You’re not giving Ragusin (also in the B10 of course) a chance against Mendez are you? Overall I’d give Vega/Stanich/Ech just a little more chance than Lockett. I don’t like going over 95% so not sure if I’d make 165 higher, but I could maybe drop 141 slightly.
nhs67 Posted March 6 Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, 1032004 said: Well technically I was including Hardy in that number, guess I should have listed him. You’re not giving Ragusin (also in the B10 of course) a chance against Mendez are you? Overall I’d give Vega/Stanich/Ech just a little more chance than Lockett. I don’t like going over 95% so not sure if I’d make 165 higher, but I could maybe drop 141 slightly. No, unfortunately. Also, I give Monster Mitch >99.9% chance. He is about as big a lock as we have ever seen. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
BruceyB Posted March 6 Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, 1032004 said: Well technically I was including Hardy in that number, guess I should have listed him. You’re not giving Ragusin (also in the B10 of course) a chance against Mendez are you? Overall I’d give Vega/Stanich/Ech just a little more chance than Lockett. I don’t like going over 95% so not sure if I’d make 165 higher, but I could maybe drop 141 slightly. 125: I think VRob, Spratley, and Ventresca can all knock off Lilledahl. Depending on B10s and how the NCAA bracket turns out, he could have an arduous path to the title. Lilledahl's vulnerability is that he isn't a lock for a takedown in regulation, and there are several guys at the weight that are patient enough to stall their way to UTB. I think he's the best guy at the weight, but I also wouldn't be too surprised to see him get "Seymour'd" again. 133: As of now, I would give Seidel is very real chance of beating anyone in the big 10, and obviously Jax as well. I'd say 50/50 Big10 or another conference here. 141: I don't think anyone's touching Jesse, but the biggest competitors at this point are probably Vega and Stanich. 149: I'm predicting SVN does not win and the winner of this weight will come from another conference. 157: If the winner comes from B10, I'm calling Cannon. But I'm predicting a non-B10 guy wins (Meyer or Robideau). 165: Mesenbrink. 174: Levi, but I think there is a small chance that Simon Ruiz could pull a Hamiti and win a 1 TD match. 184: I'm picking Aoeden. 197: I'm taking Barr over Merrill in a competitive match. 285: I think the lack of competition this season gets the better of Bastida and Trumble both. Big10 gets a champ here.
Jimmy Cinnabon Posted March 6 Posted March 6 125. Seymour beat Lilledahl last year and could do it again.
RawDog Posted March 6 Posted March 6 1 hour ago, nhs67 said: No, unfortunately. Also, I give Monster Mitch >99.9% chance. He is about as big a lock as we have ever seen. That's what everyone was saying about Gable last year.
nhs67 Posted March 6 Posted March 6 8 hours ago, RawDog said: That's what everyone was saying about Gable last year. Your comparisons are not 1:1. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
1032004 Posted March 6 Author Posted March 6 54 minutes ago, nhs67 said: Your comparisons are not 1:1. Spencer Lee might be though
PortaJohn Posted March 6 Posted March 6 28 minutes ago, 1032004 said: Spencer Lee might be though Mesenbrink has been battling a knee injury all year? I Don't Agree With What I Posted
nhs67 Posted March 6 Posted March 6 7 hours ago, PortaJohn said: Mesenbrink has been battling a knee injury all year? All life* "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me
Paul158 Posted March 7 Posted March 7 On 3/5/2026 at 12:25 PM, Rassling said: nope - Big12 wins 133 If Blaze wins Big Ten's and Forrest wins Big 12's who do you think should get the Number one seed in the NCAA Tournament? Who do think will actually get the number one seed?
Rassling Posted March 7 Posted March 7 1 minute ago, Paul158 said: If Blaze wins Big Ten's and Forrest wins Big 12's who do you think should get the Number one seed in the NCAA Tournament? Who do think will actually get the number one seed? If forest blows through the finals like he has been doing throughout the tournament I believe he earns the #1 seed. Regardless of a Blaze big10 championship win - which will be close, the NCAA goes with Jax and his Mendez-like dominance @ #1.
Paul158 Posted March 7 Posted March 7 39 minutes ago, Rassling said: If forest blows through the finals like he has been doing throughout the tournament I believe he earns the #1 seed. Regardless of a Blaze big10 championship win - which will be close, the NCAA goes with Jax and his Mendez-like dominance @ #1. The 133 pound weight class will be worth its weight in Gold this year.
red viking Posted March 7 Posted March 7 On 3/5/2026 at 2:19 PM, 1032004 said: I know we usually have a thread on this, don’t know if we’ve had one yet this year. Was discussed somewhat on Willie/Basch My rough estimates: 125 75% Lilledahl/Bouzakis 133 55% Byrd/Blaze/Davino 141 94% Mendez 149 55% SVN 157 60% Taylor/Duke/Cannon 165 95% Mesenbrink/Blaze/Caliendo 174 75% Haines/Minto/Kharchla 184 75% Welsh/McEnelly/Ferrari 197 70% Barr 285 50% Ferrari/Ghadiali/Feldman/Mirasola so using my percentages, that’s about 2%. Maybe not. Those percentages are generally too high. Fighting the Good Fight Against Non-Stop Winger Lies and Hypocrisy
Jackson Lininger Northern York, Pennsylvania Class of 2027 Committed to Slippery Rock Projected Weight: 149
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