Early NCAA Championship Probabilities

[Pablo]

The Pablo update this week is going to be early version NCAA championship probabilities.  Obviously there are going to be effects of bracketing etc, but this should give an idea of who Pablo thinks is in the running.  What I have done to get these is to take the top 16 ranked wrestlers in Pablo and bracketed them up and used a Markov-chain approach to calculate their round-by-round win probabilities based on their Pablo ratings.

If you want to know about someone else, assume they are lower than the lowest one on the list.  I am using 9 matches as my cutoff so that Jax Forrest is eligible.

[Pablo]

1	125:Ohio State_Nic Bouzakis	27.1%
2	125:Penn State_Luke Lilledahl	25.6%
3	125:Indiana_Jacob Moran	7.4%
4	125:Oklahoma State_Troy Spratley	6.9%
5	125:Lehigh_Sheldon Seymour	5.5%
6	125:Virginia Tech_Eddie Ventresca	5.0%
7	125:Iowa State_Stevo Poulin	3.5%
8	125:Illinois_Spencer Moore	2.9%
9	125:Iowa_Dean Peterson	2.9%
10	125:NC State_Vincent Robinson	2.7%
11	125:Princeton_MarcAnthony McGowan	2.4%
12	125:Oregon State_Maximo Renteria	2.2%
13	125:Stanford_Nico Provo	2.2%
14	125:Oklahoma_Sebastian Degennaro	1.8%
15	125:Rider_Tyler Klinsky	1.2%
16	125:Minnesota_Jore Volk	0.9%

[Pablo]

1	133:Oklahoma State_Jax Forrest	51.4%
2	133:Virginia Tech_Aaron Seidel	28.7%
3	133:Penn State_Marcus Blaze	6.2%
4	133:Ohio State_Ben Davino	4.5%
5	133:Iowa State_Evan Frost	3.8%
6	133:Iowa_Drake Ayala	1.6%
7	133:Arizona State_Kyler Larkin	0.8%
8	133:Gardner-Webb_T.K. Davis	0.6%
9	133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano	0.4%
10	133:West Virginia_Gunner Andrick	0.4%
11	133:Stanford_Tyler Knox	0.4%
12	133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd	0.3%
13	133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee	0.3%
14	133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt	0.2%
15	133:Pennsylvania_Evan Mougalian	0.2%
16	133:Virginia Tech_Dillon Campbell	0.1%

[Pablo]

1	141:Ohio State_Jesse Mendez	51.4%
2	141:Oklahoma State_Sergio Vega	12.4%
3	141:Lehigh_Luke Stanich	9.4%
4	141:Nebraska_Brock Hardy	6.3%
5	141:Iowa State_Anthony Echemendia	4.9%
6	141:Cornell_Vince Cornella	3.4%
7	141:Rutgers_Joey Olivieri	3.0%
8	141:Minnesota_Vance Vombaur	1.8%
9	141:Lock Haven_Wyatt Henson	1.5%
10	141:Penn State_Braeden Davis	1.2%
11	141:Iowa_Nasir Bailey	1.1%
12	141:NC State_Ryan Jack	0.9%
13	141:Arizona State_Pierson Manville	0.8%
14	141:Pennsylvania_CJ Composto	0.7%
15	141:South Dakota State_Julian Tagg	0.6%
16	141:Stanford_Jack Consiglio	0.4%

[Pablo]

1	149:Penn State_Shayne Van Ness	32.9%
2	149:Cornell_Jaxon Joy	12.6%
3	149:Missouri_Seth Mendoza	8.7%
4	149:Arizona State_Kaleb Larkin	7.7%
5	149:Utah Valley_David Evans	4.6%
6	149:NC State_Koy Buesgens	4.1%
7	149:Stanford_Aden Valencia	3.8%
8	149:Pennsylvania_Cross Wasilewski	3.4%
9	149:Oklahoma State_Casey Swiderski	3.4%
10	149:Maryland_Carter Young	3.2%
11	149:Penn State_Connor Pierce	3.0%
12	149:Virginia Tech_Collin Gaj	2.9%
13	149:Nebraska_Chance Lamer	2.8%
14	149:Ohio State_Ethan Stiles	2.7%
15	149:Michigan_Sergio Lemley	2.5%
16	149:Iowa_Ryder Block	1.8%

 

(if I drop the cutoff to 7, Bo Bassett goes to 52% and Van Ness is like 16)

[Pablo]

1	157:Ohio State_Brandon Cannon	18.2%
2	157:Cornell_Meyer Shapiro	18.1%
3	157:Penn State_PJ Duke	10.4%
4	157:Oklahoma State_Landon Robideau	9.4%
5	157:Stanford_Daniel Cardenas	9.1%
6	157:Nebraska_Antrell Taylor	8.8%
7	157:Illinois_Kannon Webster	7.6%
8	157:Iowa State_Vinny Zerban	4.7%
9	157:West Virginia_Ty Watters	4.4%
10	157:Penn State_Joe Sealey	1.8%
11	157:Pennsylvania_Jude Swisher	1.7%
12	157:NC State_Jackson Arrington	1.5%
13	157:Missouri_Teague Travis	1.4%
14	157:Minnesota_Charlie Millard	1.2%
15	157:Pittsburgh_Dylan Evans	0.8%
16	157:Michigan_Cameron Catrabone	0.7%

 

(wow, that's tight!  Very competitive)

[Pablo]

1	165:Penn State_Mitchell Mesenbrink	53.1%
2	165:Iowa_Mikey Caliendo	13.7%
3	165:Purdue_Joey Blaze	7.3%
4	165:Lehigh_Max Brignola	5.6%
5	165:Oklahoma State_LaDarion Lockett	5.2%
6	165:Arizona State_Nicco Ruiz	3.3%
7	165:Illinois_Braeden Scoles	2.3%
8	165:Nebraska_LJ Araujo	1.5%
9	165:Northern Iowa_Ryder Downey	1.3%
10	165:Ohio State_Paddy Gallagher	1.3%
11	165:Iowa State_Connor Euton	1.2%
12	165:Minnesota_Andrew Sparks	1.0%
13	165:NC State_Will Denny	0.9%
14	165:Missouri_Maxx Mayfield	0.9%
15	165:Little Rock_Matty Bianchi	0.8%
16	165:Princeton_Ty Whalen	0.6%

[Pablo]

1	174:Penn State_Levi Haines	38.8%
2	174:Ohio State_Carson Kharchla	13.1%
3	174:Iowa_Patrick Kennedy	11.0%
4	174:Nebraska_Christopher Minto	6.6%
5	174:Cornell_Simon Ruiz	5.9%
6	174:Oklahoma State_Alex Facundo	4.8%
7	174:Michigan_Beau Mantanona	4.5%
8	174:Missouri_Cam Steed	3.1%
9	174:Navy_Danny Wask	2.1%
10	174:NC State_Matty Singleton	1.9%
11	174:Columbia_Nick Fine	1.7%
12	174:Bucknell_Myles Takats	1.5%
13	174:Iowa State_MJ Gaitan	1.4%
14	174:Northern Iowa_Jared Simma	1.3%
15	174:Oregon State_Daschle Lamer	1.2%
16	174:Penn State_Will Henckel	0.9%

[Pablo]

1	184:Missouri_Aeoden Sinclair	19.3%
2	184:Penn State_Rocco Welsh	18.9%
3	184:Minnesota_Max McEnelly	15.6%
4	184:Iowa_Angelo Ferrari	8.9%
5	184:Franklin & Marshall_James Conway	7.6%
6	184:Ohio State_Dylan Fishback	6.8%
7	184:Iowa_Gabe Arnold	4.5%
8	184:Nebraska_Silas Allred	4.2%
9	184:Michigan_Brock Mantanona	3.8%
10	184:Wyoming_Eddie Neitenbach	2.3%
11	184:Rutgers_Shane CartagenaWalsh	1.6%
12	184:Oklahoma_Brian Soldano	1.5%
13	184:Oklahoma State_Zack Ryder	1.5%
14	184:Illinois_Chris Moore	1.2%
15	184:American_Caleb Campos	1.1%
16	184:Edinboro_Jared McGill	1.1%

 

another tight one (I realize there are 2 Iowegians, but I'm not going to worry)

[Pablo]

1	197:Penn State_Josh Barr	49.9%
2	197:Iowa State_Rocky Elam	9.2%
3	197:Wyoming_Joey Novak	8.2%
4	197:Oregon State_Justin Rademacher	3.8%
5	197:Oklahoma_DJ Parker	3.5%
6	197:Nebraska_Camden McDanel	3.4%
7	197:Stanford_Angelo Posada	3.4%
8	197:Rider_Brock Zurawski	2.6%
9	197:Pittsburgh_Mac Stout	2.5%
10	197:Oklahoma State_Cody Merrill	2.5%
11	197:Little Rock_Stephen Little	2.5%
12	197:Ohio State_Luke Geog	2.3%
13	197:Maryland_Branson John	1.9%
14	197:South Dakota State_Bennett Berge	1.8%
15	197:Missouri_Evan Bates	1.5%
16	197:Rutgers_Remy Cotton	1.0%

[Pablo]

1	285:Iowa State_Yonger Bastida	28.0%
2	285:NC State_Isaac Trumble	14.4%
3	285:Michigan_Taye Ghadiali	10.4%
4	285:Oklahoma State_Konner Doucet	7.1%
5	285:Ohio State_Nick Feldman	6.7%
6	285:Nebraska_AJ Ferrari	6.3%
7	285:Penn State_Lucas Cochran	4.8%
8	285:Nebraska_Cade Ziola	4.2%
9	285:Penn State_Cole Mirasola	3.6%
10	285:Wyoming_Christian Carroll	3.5%
11	285:Wisconsin_Braxton Amos	3.0%
12	285:Virginia Tech_Jimmy Mullen	2.3%
13	285:Iowa_Ben Kueter	1.7%
14	285:Pittsburgh_Dayton Pitzer	1.5%
15	285:Army West Point_Brady Colbert	1.4%
16	285:Lehigh_Nathan Taylor	1.1%

[russ1847]

32 minutes ago, Pablo said:

1	133:Oklahoma State_Jax Forrest	51.4%
2	133:Virginia Tech_Aaron Seidel	28.7%
3	133:Penn State_Marcus Blaze	6.2%
4	133:Ohio State_Ben Davino	4.5%
5	133:Iowa State_Evan Frost	3.8%
6	133:Iowa_Drake Ayala	1.6%
7	133:Arizona State_Kyler Larkin	0.8%
8	133:Gardner-Webb_T.K. Davis	0.6%
9	133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano	0.4%
10	133:West Virginia_Gunner Andrick	0.4%
11	133:Stanford_Tyler Knox	0.4%
12	133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd	0.3%
13	133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee	0.3%
14	133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt	0.2%
15	133:Pennsylvania_Evan Mougalian	0.2%
16	133:Virginia Tech_Dillon Campbell	0.1%

I'll gladly take Byrd at 300-1

[romeo07]

Will Denny at 0.9% is insane. I could see him in the finals.

[MMR52000]

I know this is all data derived outcomes, but Jax having almost the same probability of winning as Mendez and MM is wild.

[Gene Mills Fan]

Math is mathing but Pablo sees domination and barely squeaking by as equal.

Don't get me wrong there is great info and great work but some hidden variables.

Do not Stop great data set and base for discussion.

[ionel]

51 minutes ago, russ1847 said:

I'll gladly take Byrd at 300-1

What kind've money can I get on byrd for thyrd? 

[Paul158]

2 hours ago, Pablo said:

1	133:Oklahoma State_Jax Forrest	51.4%
2	133:Virginia Tech_Aaron Seidel	28.7%
3	133:Penn State_Marcus Blaze	6.2%
4	133:Ohio State_Ben Davino	4.5%
5	133:Iowa State_Evan Frost	3.8%
6	133:Iowa_Drake Ayala	1.6%
7	133:Arizona State_Kyler Larkin	0.8%
8	133:Gardner-Webb_T.K. Davis	0.6%
9	133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano	0.4%
10	133:West Virginia_Gunner Andrick	0.4%
11	133:Stanford_Tyler Knox	0.4%
12	133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd	0.3%
13	133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee	0.3%
14	133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt	0.2%
15	133:Pennsylvania_Evan Mougalian	0.2%
16	133:Virginia Tech_Dillon Campbell	0.1%

I think the prediction is a little off. Byrd has beaten Ayala twice this year and is undefeated. Jax first isn't d, but he has only wrestled 9 matches. Seidel has only wrestled one top 6 guy. If I ran a betting site I would be really nervous on the odds for Blaze and Davino on how much money I would lose.

[Paul158]

2 hours ago, Pablo said:

1	157:Ohio State_Brandon Cannon	18.2%
2	157:Cornell_Meyer Shapiro	18.1%
3	157:Penn State_PJ Duke	10.4%
4	157:Oklahoma State_Landon Robideau	9.4%
5	157:Stanford_Daniel Cardenas	9.1%
6	157:Nebraska_Antrell Taylor	8.8%
7	157:Illinois_Kannon Webster	7.6%
8	157:Iowa State_Vinny Zerban	4.7%
9	157:West Virginia_Ty Watters	4.4%
10	157:Penn State_Joe Sealey	1.8%
11	157:Pennsylvania_Jude Swisher	1.7%
12	157:NC State_Jackson Arrington	1.5%
13	157:Missouri_Teague Travis	1.4%
14	157:Minnesota_Charlie Millard	1.2%
15	157:Pittsburgh_Dylan Evans	0.8%
16	157:Michigan_Cameron Catrabone	0.7%

 

(wow, that's tight!  Very competitive)

I don't think Joe Sealey has any chance of winning being he is not wrestling at all.

[ionel]

8 minutes ago, Paul158 said:

I don't think Joe Sealey has any chance of winning being he is not wrestling at all.

So kind've like same odds as Messenbrink? 

[GimJustafan]

 

[gimpeltf]

If we're really talking early NCAA predictions, I say Oklahoma State with 4 champs and a second out of 7 weights!

[Doublehalf]

Pretty crazy the disparity between Marcus blaze with the guys above him. I’d definitely lower Jax and Seidel a few points and slide them over to blaze. Would be a good bet at the current probability.

[Spladle]

On 2/27/2026 at 10:04 AM, romeo07 said:

Will Denny at 0.9% is insane. I could see him in the finals.

Can I have some of what you are having plz 

[bnwtwg]

On 2/27/2026 at 12:14 PM, Paul158 said:

I don't think Joe Sealey has any chance of winning being he is not wrestling at all.

Pablo's odds low

[jackwebster]

2 hours ago, gimpeltf said:

If we're really talking early NCAA predictions, I say Oklahoma State with 4 champs and a second out of 7 weights!

What kinda NCAA performance would derail your hopes for dethroning PSU by 5+ years?