Pablo

USABracketing Dashboard not dashboarding

If anyone knows how to do the interpretation, it's possible to compare these with Pablo probabilities now. I know Pablo has a different look for 133

165 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Mitchell Mesenbrink 0.999 0.973 0.964 0.923 0.830 Mikey Caliendo 0.988 0.919 0.755 0.559 0.107 Max Brignola 0.799 0.679 0.397 0.156 0.015 Joey Blaze 0.944 0.656 0.386 0.145 0.013 174 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Levi Haines 0.995 0.951 0.837 0.669 0.573 Carson Kharchla 0.894 0.786 0.537 0.176 0.116 Christopher Minto 0.960 0.853 0.673 0.422 0.122 Simon Ruiz 0.876 0.576 0.362 0.197 0.048 Cam Steed 0.746 0.526 0.281 0.144 0.032 184 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Rocco Welsh 0.932 0.793 0.617 0.456 0.210 Brock Mantanona 0.897 0.524 0.351 0.150 0.042 Silas Allred 0.870 0.621 0.228 0.121 0.031 Dylan Fishback 0.822 0.422 0.272 0.109 0.028 Aeoden Sinclair 0.995 0.937 0.756 0.463 0.328 Max McEnelly 0.980 0.917 0.780 0.416 0.282 197 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Josh Barr 0.999 0.991 0.973 0.941 0.894 Rocky Elam 0.923 0.792 0.553 0.387 0.044 Cody Merrill 0.811 0.615 0.290 0.173 0.013 Camden McDanel 0.741 0.466 0.302 0.142 0.010 285 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Yonger Bastida 0.992 0.875 0.773 0.619 0.440 AJ Ferrari 0.950 0.675 0.380 0.122 0.053 Nick Feldman 0.933 0.653 0.374 0.122 0.054 Isaac Trumble 0.964 0.812 0.598 0.395 0.194 Taye Ghadiali 0.962 0.827 0.659 0.349 0.151 Konner Doucet 0.839 0.617 0.250 0.127 0.043

Let's look more. Here are the wrestlers who have a 10% chance of making the final. Not winning, but making it to the final. I've broken them by bracket side. 125 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Luke Lilledahl 0.946 0.872 0.761 0.576 0.415 Troy Spratley 0.903 0.679 0.399 0.157 0.083 Sheldon Seymour 0.910 0.574 0.313 0.114 0.056 Nic Bouzakis 0.918 0.663 0.527 0.421 0.225 Eddie Ventresca 0.805 0.519 0.332 0.127 0.039 Jacob Moran 0.799 0.291 0.188 0.122 0.045 Jore Volk 0.860 0.548 0.174 0.099 0.029 133 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jax Forrest 1.000 0.990 0.986 0.646 0.599 Aaron Seidel 0.994 0.975 0.939 0.352 0.305 Ben Davino 0.985 0.837 0.771 0.477 0.056 Marcus Blaze 0.967 0.890 0.633 0.343 0.033 Drake Ayala 0.942 0.787 0.315 0.127 0.006 141 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jesse Mendez 0.999 0.983 0.952 0.865 0.783 Brock Hardy 0.965 0.829 0.650 0.406 0.072 Sergio Vega 0.953 0.792 0.638 0.369 0.061 149 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Shayne Van Ness 0.980 0.866 0.715 0.590 0.414 Jaxon Joy 0.924 0.778 0.610 0.492 0.280 Lachlan McNeil 0.812 0.622 0.382 0.138 0.045 Aden Valencia 0.751 0.487 0.172 0.104 0.037 Cross Wasilewski 0.699 0.499 0.295 0.104 0.033 157 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner PJ Duke 0.998 0.962 0.721 0.542 0.377 Kaleb Larkin 0.918 0.811 0.437 0.144 0.065 Landon Robideau 0.903 0.640 0.388 0.141 0.069 Kannon Webster 0.955 0.849 0.541 0.325 0.152 Meyer Shapiro 0.935 0.834 0.596 0.324 0.147 Antrell Taylor 0.981 0.811 0.390 0.204 0.080

285 Prelim Mason Rebuck 0.379 Emmanuel Ulrich 0.621 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Yonger Bastida 0.992 0.875 0.773 0.619 0.440 Emmanuel Ulrich 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 Vincent Mueller 0.262 0.013 0.004 0.001 0.000 Jimmy Mullen 0.738 0.110 0.062 0.026 0.008 Cole Mirasola 0.813 0.512 0.098 0.042 0.013 Connor Barket 0.187 0.057 0.003 0.000 0.000 Alex Semenenko 0.173 0.031 0.001 0.000 0.000 Ben Kueter 0.827 0.399 0.059 0.021 0.005 Nick Feldman 0.933 0.653 0.374 0.122 0.054 Jarrett Stoner 0.067 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.000 Juan Mora 0.337 0.082 0.023 0.003 0.000 Braxton Amos 0.663 0.253 0.107 0.023 0.007 Spencer Lanosga 0.376 0.095 0.027 0.004 0.001 Dayton Pitzer 0.624 0.222 0.088 0.017 0.005 Luke Rasmussen 0.050 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 AJ Ferrari 0.950 0.675 0.380 0.122 0.053 Taye Ghadiali 0.962 0.827 0.659 0.349 0.151 Jack Forbes 0.038 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000 Nate Schon 0.425 0.059 0.022 0.003 0.000 Koy Hopke 0.575 0.105 0.046 0.009 0.001 Devon Dawson 0.288 0.082 0.011 0.001 0.000 Trevor Tinker 0.712 0.350 0.096 0.023 0.004 Hunter Catka 0.335 0.154 0.031 0.005 0.001 Nathan Taylor 0.665 0.414 0.134 0.039 0.009 Konner Doucet 0.839 0.617 0.250 0.127 0.043 Luke Luffman 0.161 0.061 0.008 0.001 0.000 Stephan Monchery 0.177 0.021 0.001 0.000 0.000 David Szuba 0.823 0.302 0.073 0.024 0.005 Brady Colbert 0.357 0.045 0.013 0.003 0.000 Christian Carroll 0.643 0.135 0.056 0.019 0.004 Brenan Morgan 0.036 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 Isaac Trumble 0.964 0.812 0.598 0.395 0.194 Again 3 in the mix. Pablo has liked Bastida all season, and has Ghadiali and Trumble with a chance.

197 Prelim Karson Tompkins 0.532 Blake Schaffer 0.468 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Josh Barr 0.999 0.991 0.973 0.941 0.894 Karson Tompkins 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Dillon Bechtold 0.382 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 Branson John 0.618 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.000 Angelo Posada 0.558 0.288 0.007 0.003 0.001 Brock Zurawski 0.442 0.203 0.004 0.001 0.000 Evan Bates 0.293 0.105 0.001 0.000 0.000 DJ Parker 0.707 0.404 0.012 0.006 0.002 Joey Novak 0.894 0.553 0.394 0.026 0.013 Kael Wisler 0.106 0.020 0.005 0.000 0.000 Rune Lawrence 0.235 0.056 0.021 0.000 0.000 Luke Geog 0.765 0.371 0.244 0.012 0.006 Bennett Berge 0.510 0.266 0.088 0.002 0.001 Wyatt Ingham 0.490 0.251 0.081 0.002 0.001 Colton Hawks 0.222 0.057 0.008 0.000 0.000 Sonny Sasso 0.778 0.426 0.158 0.005 0.002 Stephen Little 0.761 0.472 0.233 0.093 0.005 Kade Rule 0.239 0.082 0.020 0.004 0.000 Zayne Lehman 0.399 0.155 0.050 0.012 0.000 Gabe Sollars 0.601 0.291 0.121 0.039 0.002 Camden McDanel 0.741 0.466 0.302 0.142 0.010 Devin Wasley 0.259 0.100 0.040 0.010 0.000 Gabe Arnold 0.281 0.080 0.029 0.006 0.000 Justin Rademacher 0.719 0.354 0.205 0.083 0.005 Cody Merrill 0.811 0.615 0.290 0.173 0.013 Ben Vanadia 0.189 0.083 0.016 0.004 0.000 Mikey Squires 0.269 0.045 0.006 0.001 0.000 Mac Stout 0.731 0.256 0.072 0.027 0.001 Remy Cotton 0.462 0.078 0.023 0.007 0.000 Andrew Reall 0.538 0.103 0.034 0.011 0.000 Kael Bennie 0.077 0.028 0.006 0.001 0.000 Rocky Elam 0.923 0.792 0.553 0.387 0.044 Would be a huge upset if Barr doesn't win. Heck, this is on the level of Steveson last year.

184 Prelim Sam Goin 0.676 Caleb Uhlenhopp 0.324 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Rocco Welsh 0.932 0.793 0.617 0.456 0.210 Sam Goin 0.068 0.023 0.006 0.001 0.000 Ian Bush 0.575 0.117 0.051 0.020 0.003 Rylan Rogers 0.425 0.068 0.025 0.008 0.001 Chris Moore 0.603 0.227 0.051 0.018 0.002 Joe Curtis 0.397 0.115 0.019 0.005 0.000 Malachi DuVall 0.130 0.038 0.003 0.001 0.000 Silas Allred 0.870 0.621 0.228 0.121 0.031 Brock Mantanona 0.897 0.524 0.351 0.150 0.042 Abraham Wojcikiewicz 0.103 0.017 0.004 0.000 0.000 Tomas Brooker 0.178 0.036 0.011 0.002 0.000 Dylan Fishback 0.822 0.422 0.272 0.109 0.028 Isaac Dean 0.461 0.151 0.035 0.006 0.001 Brian Soldano 0.539 0.195 0.051 0.010 0.001 Nick Fox 0.177 0.064 0.010 0.001 0.000 James Conway 0.823 0.590 0.266 0.094 0.021 Max McEnelly 0.980 0.917 0.780 0.416 0.282 Tyler Bienus 0.020 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 Jared McGill 0.607 0.055 0.020 0.002 0.000 Jaden Bullock 0.393 0.022 0.006 0.000 0.000 Shane Cartagena-Walsh 0.477 0.198 0.029 0.004 0.001 Zack Ryder 0.523 0.227 0.036 0.005 0.001 Aidan Brenot 0.158 0.041 0.002 0.000 0.000 Eddie Neitenbach 0.842 0.535 0.126 0.029 0.010 Angelo Ferrari 0.885 0.711 0.201 0.074 0.034 Chase Kranitz 0.115 0.043 0.002 0.000 0.000 Ceasar Garza 0.383 0.075 0.005 0.001 0.000 Caleb Campos 0.617 0.171 0.018 0.003 0.001 Sal Perrine 0.497 0.030 0.008 0.001 0.000 Jake Dailey 0.503 0.031 0.009 0.001 0.000 Mahonri Rushton 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 Aeoden Sinclair 0.995 0.937 0.756 0.463 0.328 Pablo has this as really even. Welsh, McEnnelly, Sinclair (most likely to win) are really close.

174 Prelim Grant O`Dell 0.289 Luke Condon 0.711 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Levi Haines 0.995 0.951 0.837 0.669 0.573 Luke Condon 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 Jared Simma 0.355 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 Nick Fine 0.645 0.038 0.013 0.003 0.001 Beau Mantanona 0.853 0.460 0.069 0.027 0.013 Garrett Thompson 0.147 0.028 0.001 0.000 0.000 Sergio Desiante 0.179 0.045 0.002 0.000 0.000 Alex Facundo 0.821 0.468 0.075 0.031 0.015 Patrick Kennedy 0.894 0.710 0.342 0.083 0.047 Holden Garcia 0.106 0.036 0.005 0.000 0.000 Lenny Pinto 0.354 0.066 0.011 0.001 0.000 Carter Schubert 0.646 0.187 0.047 0.005 0.001 Carter Baer 0.416 0.057 0.013 0.001 0.000 Daschle Lamer 0.584 0.107 0.032 0.003 0.001 Avery Bassett 0.106 0.050 0.012 0.001 0.000 Carson Kharchla 0.894 0.786 0.537 0.176 0.116 Christopher Minto 0.960 0.853 0.673 0.422 0.122 Riley Davis 0.040 0.012 0.002 0.000 0.000 Logan Messer 0.396 0.042 0.012 0.002 0.000 Moses Espinoza-Owens 0.604 0.093 0.036 0.008 0.000 MJ Gaitan 0.751 0.458 0.146 0.054 0.007 Brody Baumann 0.249 0.089 0.013 0.002 0.000 Collin Carrigan 0.203 0.045 0.004 0.000 0.000 Matty Singleton 0.797 0.408 0.113 0.037 0.004 Cam Steed 0.746 0.526 0.281 0.144 0.032 Derek Gilcher 0.254 0.117 0.034 0.010 0.001 Luca Augustine 0.296 0.068 0.014 0.003 0.000 Myles Takats 0.704 0.289 0.111 0.041 0.005 Danny Wask 0.670 0.299 0.157 0.070 0.012 Colin Kelly 0.330 0.096 0.035 0.010 0.001 Cael Valencia 0.124 0.029 0.006 0.001 0.000 Simon Ruiz 0.876 0.576 0.362 0.197 0.048 Haines, Kharchla, Minto

165 Prelim Ryan Vigil 0.317 Cody Walsh 0.683 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Mitchell Mesenbrink 0.999 0.973 0.964 0.923 0.830 Cody Walsh 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Braeden Scoles 0.465 0.011 0.007 0.003 0.001 Paddy Gallagher 0.535 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.001 Bryce Hepner 0.532 0.236 0.003 0.001 0.000 Sean Seefeldt 0.468 0.193 0.002 0.001 0.000 Mac Church 0.298 0.127 0.001 0.000 0.000 Matty Bianchi 0.702 0.445 0.011 0.004 0.001 LaDarion Lockett 0.935 0.743 0.451 0.035 0.014 Cody Goebel 0.065 0.016 0.002 0.000 0.000 Brock Woodcock 0.634 0.174 0.059 0.002 0.000 Cesar Alvan 0.366 0.066 0.015 0.000 0.000 Andrew Sparks 0.656 0.291 0.128 0.006 0.002 Ty Whalen 0.344 0.103 0.031 0.001 0.000 Ryan Burgos 0.059 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 Nicco Ruiz 0.941 0.599 0.313 0.020 0.007 Mikey Caliendo 0.988 0.919 0.755 0.559 0.107 Thomas Snipes 0.012 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 Noah Mulvaney 0.399 0.023 0.006 0.001 0.000 Andrew Barbosa 0.601 0.055 0.018 0.005 0.000 Ryder Downey 0.624 0.296 0.061 0.023 0.001 Matthew Olguin 0.376 0.135 0.018 0.005 0.000 EJ Parco 0.148 0.035 0.002 0.000 0.000 LJ Araujo 0.852 0.533 0.139 0.064 0.004 Max Brignola 0.799 0.679 0.397 0.156 0.015 Tyler Lillard 0.201 0.117 0.032 0.005 0.000 Chris Earnest 0.422 0.073 0.013 0.001 0.000 Will Denny 0.578 0.130 0.031 0.004 0.000 Connor Euton 0.638 0.242 0.109 0.027 0.001 Gunner Filipowicz 0.362 0.095 0.031 0.005 0.000 Jared Keslar 0.056 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 Joey Blaze 0.944 0.656 0.386 0.145 0.013 Mesinbrink clearly on his own here. Maybe Calliendo, but that would be a big surprise.

157 Prelim Yannis Charles 0.482 Jeb Prechtel 0.518 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner PJ Duke 0.998 0.962 0.721 0.542 0.377 Jeb Prechtel 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Luke Mechler 0.459 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 Cael Swensen 0.541 0.023 0.003 0.001 0.000 Daniel Cardenas 0.952 0.577 0.173 0.093 0.044 Jaivon Jones 0.048 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 Mason Shrader 0.114 0.013 0.001 0.000 0.000 Brandon Cannon 0.886 0.405 0.100 0.048 0.020 Landon Robideau 0.903 0.640 0.388 0.141 0.069 Gavin Drexler 0.097 0.023 0.004 0.000 0.000 Charlie Millard 0.310 0.071 0.021 0.002 0.000 Vinny Zerban 0.690 0.266 0.122 0.028 0.009 Derek Raike 0.593 0.103 0.017 0.001 0.000 Jimmy Harrington 0.407 0.051 0.006 0.000 0.000 Bryce Lowery 0.082 0.035 0.004 0.000 0.000 Kaleb Larkin 0.918 0.811 0.437 0.144 0.065 Meyer Shapiro 0.935 0.834 0.596 0.324 0.147 Laird Root 0.065 0.026 0.005 0.000 0.000 Kai Owen 0.389 0.042 0.009 0.001 0.000 Ethen Miller 0.611 0.098 0.029 0.005 0.001 Ty Watters 0.891 0.570 0.234 0.089 0.027 Colton Washleski 0.109 0.022 0.002 0.000 0.000 Dylan Evans 0.303 0.086 0.017 0.003 0.000 Jude Swisher 0.697 0.323 0.109 0.033 0.008 Kannon Webster 0.955 0.849 0.541 0.325 0.152 Jonathan Ley 0.045 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 Kaleb Burgess 0.249 0.014 0.001 0.000 0.000 Logan Rozynski 0.751 0.121 0.030 0.007 0.001 Cameron Catrabone 0.645 0.141 0.030 0.007 0.001 DJ McGee 0.355 0.046 0.006 0.001 0.000 Garrett McChesney 0.019 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 Antrell Taylor 0.981 0.811 0.390 0.204 0.080 This is more competive. Pablo likes Duke, Shapiro and Webster. Webster here is a little surprise, but Pablo literally has him ranked 2nd, a tad ahead of Shapiro. Will be interesting.

149 Prelim Austin McBurney 0.536 Clayton Jones 0.464 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Shayne Van Ness 0.980 0.866 0.715 0.590 0.414 Austin McBurney 0.020 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 Lucas Kapusta 0.269 0.016 0.004 0.001 0.000 Jacob Frost 0.731 0.115 0.053 0.024 0.008 David Evans 0.775 0.363 0.075 0.036 0.012 Andrew Clark 0.225 0.048 0.003 0.001 0.000 Michael Gioffre 0.225 0.083 0.009 0.002 0.000 Casey Swiderski 0.775 0.506 0.140 0.080 0.034 Koy Buesgens 0.758 0.439 0.255 0.076 0.031 Kade Brown 0.242 0.077 0.024 0.003 0.001 Gabe Willochell 0.235 0.066 0.020 0.002 0.000 Carter Young 0.765 0.417 0.236 0.067 0.026 Joseph Zargo 0.525 0.213 0.084 0.016 0.004 Chance Lamer 0.475 0.182 0.068 0.012 0.003 Kaden Cassidy 0.081 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 Collin Gaj 0.919 0.593 0.312 0.089 0.035 Cross Wasilewski 0.699 0.499 0.295 0.104 0.033 Dylan Layton 0.301 0.156 0.062 0.012 0.002 Brock Herman 0.447 0.142 0.051 0.008 0.001 Caleb Rathjen 0.553 0.203 0.082 0.016 0.003 Lachlan McNeil 0.812 0.622 0.382 0.138 0.045 Eligh Rivera 0.188 0.084 0.024 0.003 0.000 Andre Gonzales 0.304 0.057 0.012 0.001 0.000 Caleb Tyus 0.696 0.238 0.093 0.017 0.003 Ethan Stiles 0.858 0.395 0.106 0.053 0.014 Anderson Heap 0.142 0.019 0.001 0.000 0.000 Max Petersen 0.249 0.099 0.016 0.006 0.001 Aden Valencia 0.751 0.487 0.172 0.104 0.037 Ryder Block 0.710 0.164 0.078 0.040 0.011 Eugene Harney 0.290 0.032 0.009 0.003 0.000 Ryan Michaels 0.076 0.027 0.007 0.002 0.000 Jaxon Joy 0.924 0.778 0.610 0.492 0.280 Van Ness and Joy clearly separated

141 Prelim Aldo Hernandez 0.502 Matthew Martino 0.498 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jesse Mendez 0.999 0.983 0.952 0.865 0.783 Aldo Hernandez 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Caedyn Ricciardi 0.435 0.006 0.002 0.000 0.000 Ryan Jack 0.565 0.011 0.005 0.001 0.000 Joey Olivieri 0.702 0.315 0.010 0.003 0.001 Nash Singleton 0.298 0.079 0.001 0.000 0.000 Tom Crook 0.183 0.060 0.001 0.000 0.000 Vance Vombaur 0.817 0.545 0.030 0.011 0.004 Luke Stanich 0.878 0.776 0.529 0.081 0.047 Pierson Manville 0.122 0.063 0.017 0.000 0.000 Tyler Wells 0.453 0.066 0.016 0.000 0.000 Luke Simcox 0.547 0.095 0.026 0.001 0.000 Wyatt Henson 0.545 0.177 0.052 0.002 0.001 Julian Tagg 0.455 0.131 0.034 0.001 0.000 Jordan Titus 0.109 0.030 0.004 0.000 0.000 Anthony Echemendia 0.891 0.661 0.324 0.034 0.016 Brock Hardy 0.965 0.829 0.650 0.406 0.072 Dario Lemus 0.035 0.008 0.002 0.000 0.000 Haiden Drury 0.373 0.045 0.015 0.003 0.000 Braeden Davis 0.627 0.118 0.053 0.015 0.001 CJ Composto 0.696 0.255 0.052 0.013 0.000 Lorenzo Frezza 0.304 0.062 0.006 0.001 0.000 Gable Porter 0.209 0.094 0.013 0.002 0.000 Vince Cornella 0.791 0.589 0.210 0.089 0.007 Nasir Bailey 0.782 0.490 0.155 0.050 0.003 Braden Basile 0.218 0.072 0.009 0.001 0.000 Dylan Chappell 0.318 0.101 0.014 0.002 0.000 Jack Consiglio 0.682 0.336 0.087 0.023 0.001 Elijah Griffin 0.657 0.151 0.078 0.022 0.001 Carter Nogle 0.343 0.046 0.017 0.003 0.000 Billy DeKraker 0.047 0.011 0.003 0.000 0.000 Sergio Vega 0.953 0.792 0.638 0.369 0.061 Mendez the clear favorite here. Hardy and Vega are the likely opponent.

133 Prelim Carter Schmidt 0.556 Andrew Austin 0.444 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jax Forrest 1.000 0.990 0.986 0.646 0.599 Carter Schmidt 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 T.K. Davis 0.574 0.007 0.004 0.000 0.000 Zan Fugitt 0.426 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.000 Dominick Serrano 0.813 0.557 0.006 0.000 0.000 Blake Boarman 0.187 0.066 0.000 0.000 0.000 Will Betancourt 0.302 0.077 0.000 0.000 0.000 Markel Baker 0.698 0.300 0.002 0.000 0.000 Kyler Larkin 0.594 0.503 0.034 0.001 0.000 Garrett Grice 0.406 0.318 0.014 0.000 0.000 Sean Spidle 0.397 0.055 0.000 0.000 0.000 Evan Mougalian 0.603 0.124 0.002 0.000 0.000 Jacob Van Dee 0.564 0.015 0.006 0.000 0.000 Julian Farber 0.436 0.008 0.003 0.000 0.000 Luke Willochell 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 Aaron Seidel 0.994 0.975 0.939 0.352 0.305 Marcus Blaze 0.967 0.890 0.633 0.343 0.033 Gabe Whisenhunt 0.033 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.000 Gage Walker 0.540 0.057 0.014 0.002 0.000 Ethan Berginc 0.460 0.042 0.009 0.001 0.000 Tyler Ferrara 0.451 0.081 0.010 0.001 0.000 Zach Redding 0.549 0.116 0.017 0.003 0.000 Marcel Lopez 0.058 0.016 0.001 0.000 0.000 Drake Ayala 0.942 0.787 0.315 0.127 0.006 Lucas Byrd 0.693 0.465 0.078 0.016 0.000 Dylan Shawver 0.307 0.146 0.011 0.001 0.000 Braxton Brown 0.541 0.220 0.020 0.002 0.000 Maximilian Leete 0.459 0.169 0.013 0.001 0.000 Tyler Knox 0.550 0.096 0.065 0.017 0.000 Gunner Andrick 0.450 0.065 0.041 0.009 0.000 Gable Strickland 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 Ben Davino 0.985 0.837 0.771 0.477 0.056 Forrest and Seidel are the favorites. Should be exciting.

125 Prelim Jace Schafer 0.307 Mack Mauger 0.693 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Luke Lilledahl 0.946 0.872 0.761 0.576 0.415 Mack Mauger 0.054 0.023 0.008 0.001 0.000 Jett Strickenberger 0.514 0.056 0.023 0.006 0.001 Ezekiel Witt 0.486 0.050 0.020 0.005 0.001 Maximo Renteria 0.702 0.283 0.040 0.010 0.003 Ayden Smith 0.298 0.068 0.005 0.001 0.000 Kael Lauridsen 0.174 0.063 0.004 0.001 0.000 Dean Peterson 0.826 0.586 0.138 0.056 0.021 Troy Spratley 0.903 0.679 0.399 0.157 0.083 Andrew Binni 0.097 0.028 0.004 0.000 0.000 Conrad Hendriksen 0.245 0.036 0.006 0.001 0.000 Vincent Robinson 0.755 0.256 0.097 0.022 0.007 Stevo Poulin 0.692 0.322 0.152 0.046 0.020 Diego Sotelo 0.308 0.089 0.026 0.005 0.001 Tyler Chappell 0.090 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 Sheldon Seymour 0.910 0.574 0.313 0.114 0.056 Nic Bouzakis 0.918 0.663 0.527 0.421 0.225 Sulayman Bah 0.082 0.019 0.006 0.002 0.000 Kysen Terukina 0.201 0.027 0.009 0.003 0.000 Jacob Moran 0.799 0.291 0.188 0.122 0.045 Tyler Klinsky 0.682 0.321 0.081 0.039 0.009 Davis Motyka 0.318 0.096 0.013 0.004 0.000 Brady Roark 0.140 0.034 0.002 0.000 0.000 Jore Volk 0.860 0.548 0.174 0.099 0.029 Nico Provo 0.735 0.424 0.206 0.063 0.015 Cooper Flynn 0.265 0.089 0.023 0.003 0.000 Nicolar Rivera 0.351 0.138 0.044 0.008 0.001 Marc-Anthony McGowan 0.649 0.349 0.161 0.046 0.010 Koda Holeman 0.307 0.090 0.032 0.005 0.001 Spencer Moore 0.693 0.328 0.182 0.055 0.013 Desmond Pleasant 0.195 0.063 0.020 0.003 0.000 Eddie Ventresca 0.805 0.519 0.332 0.127 0.039 This is relatively more competitive than the other weight classes, we will see. But still it's Lilledahl and Bouzakis as the favorites. Pablo is not big on Ventresca.

As I've noted, one of the great things about Pablo rankings (ratings) is that they are predictive in terms of outcomes. I recently posted examples of how Pablo ratings work in terms of predicting outcomes, and, basically, the bigger the rating difference between wrestlers, the more likely the higher rated wrestler is to win, and there is an analytical relationship that we can use to determine the probability of each wrestler winning. With that background, I have done an analysis of the NCAA championship brackets to determine the probability of each wrestler advancing to the next round. For the first round, this is easy, because it's just the chance of winning that opening round match, but for the subsequent rounds, you have to take into account the probability of the guy getting out of the previous round and who is opponent is going to be, which depends on all their probabilities of advancing. Don't worry, the math to do this is pretty straightforward, albeit tedious, but I have done it. A couple of things to note 1) I've included the Pablo probabilities for the preliminary match, but in order to simplify the calculation, I only considered the (Pablo) favorite. Assume that the advancement probabilities for the other wrestler are lower (maybe by about half) 2) This only considers advancement through the championship bracket. It is way too hard to do the consolation bracket 3) From my perspective, I usually consider a probability of 0.15 or greater to be "not a surprising outcome." Basically, it's like rolling a 6 sided die. Yeah, it's unlikely that you will roll a 4, but are you surprised if a 4 shows up? Not at all. So that's how I interpret the result. Also, if you look at it in terms of rounds and weightclasses, you got 50 outcomes total, so it wouldn't be crazy to see at least one wrestler with a less than 5% chance of making it to a given round making it. Of course, what round and what weight class that will happen is completely unknown, so you can't say who is going to do it, but don't be surprised if a highly unlikely outcome occurs. 4) I know that some don't like the formatting, but I have included all 33 wrestlers and all 5 rounds in the same post. Sorry, it would be a mess otherwise.

You claimed he "obviously didn't wrestle up to his ability at Big 12s." That was what I was referring to. I even quoted it in my response, so that you could see what I was asking about. I don't know what that has to do with his record against NCAA qualifiers or his overall winning percentage. Let me re-state my question: on what basis do you conclude that Teague did not wrestle up to his ability in the Big 12 championships? Did he lose to anyone he wasn't expected to? Maybe he underperformed in the matches he did win? I don't know, I didn't pay attention. But presumably you did, and that's why you said he "obviously" did not perform up to his ability. To be honest, I don't care about Travis Teague, and until probably 2 days ago, I had never heard of him. Just another wrestler. What I do care about is assessing wrestler performance, and if someone claims there was some "obvious" thing that I could not identify I'd want to know about it. My position is that losing to wrestlers you are expected to lose to is not "underperforming." Now, you could claim that he shouldn't be expected to lose to those wrestlers, but given his performance over the course of the season, I see no reason to say that, either. As you note, he has not shown an ability to beat any top 10 wrestlers over the course of the season, so I don't know why you'd think he should start doing it at the Big 12s, and why failure to beat top 10 wrestlers at Big 12s is somehow underperforming.

Who did he lose to that he should have beaten? Weren't the two guys who beat him ranked pretty high?

So looking at the 2025 tournament, here is the 2-and-out breakdown by conference. Overall, I got 23% of the wrestlers were 2-and-out (because that prelim match throws a wrinkle into the mix) This is the fraction of wrestlers from each conference that went 0-2 in the tournament ACC 24% B12 18% B1G 16% EIWA 32% IVY 17% MAC 36% P12 20% SoCon 53% Remember, a high value here doesn't mean they don't belong. We all agree that conference champs deserve a spot. So the SoCon has to have 10 wrestlers in the tournament. The bigger question is the outcome for the other 7. I don't have the bandwidth to dig into that now for all the conferences, but I don't think it will be as bad as I fear. Maybe if I get around to it.

While B1G wrestlers are overrepresented at the top, they are under-represented in the 2-and-outs. Note that 24% of wrestlers leave the NCAA tournament after two matches. By a quick count last year, I had only 13% of B1G wrestlers going 0-2. When you think about who deserves to be in the tournament, going 0-2 does not necessarily mean that you don't belong, but winning a match is a good indication that you DO belong. Hard to say someone didn't deserve to be in the tournament if they win a match. Man, here's a project for ya. What is the conference breakdown for the wrestlers going 0-2? Damn rabbit hole....

OK, so this is silly. "They earned 2nd place points." Maybe, but they didn't finish second. It doesn't matter how it's scored. They lost the wrestleback for 2nd place, which means they were the third best wrestler in the tournament. The name itself says it, the TRUE 2nd place. This is what wrestlebacks are for, to recognize that a single elimination tournament itself is not sufficient to rank the wrestlers due to issues of matchups. Why did they have to "wrestle off for the allocation"? Because they made the finals despite not being the 2nd best wrestler. Wrestling is really good about using the wrestleback to find the "true 2nd" when they need it. Iowa does this in their districts all the time, because the top two advance to state. As such, it really matters who is #2, so if the matchups warrant it, they will do the wrestleback.

He satisfies the criteria, yes, but the question is whether he is as good of a wrestler as other guys who didn't get selected?

174 Pounds 19 Avery Bassett, Lock Haven 22 Jared Simma, Northern Iowa 27 Luca Augustine, Pittsburgh 29 Holden Garcia, Princeton Yep, those are all fine 184 Pounds 38 Tyler Bienus, Bucknell 25 Sam Goin, Indiana 31 Nick Fox, Northern Iowa 18 Brian Soldano, Oklahoma 30 Gautreau of Lock Haven Given the head-to-head, it's undestandable, although there could be better options. 197 Pounds 23 Evan Bates, Missouri 13 Brock Zurawski, Rider 34 Kael Bennie, Utah Valley 24 Rune Lawrence, West Virginia 31 Zyan Hall of NAVY 30 Jack Wehmeyer of Columbia over Kael Bennie. Those three are all very close. 285 Pounds 48 Emmanuel Ulrich, American 28 Connor Barket, Duke 43 Jack Forbes, Utah Valley 14 Christian Carroll, Wyoming Forbes (39 Stoner and 49 Rasmussen). Lost to 60 Buhk ...placed 2nd in the MAC (Lost in the True 2nd match (see above - isn't that 3rd place?)) 41 Ashton Davis

Let's make this a post by itself. 165 Pounds 56 Ryan Burgos, Edinboro 23 Tyler Lillard, Indiana 13 Matty Bianchi, Little Rock 51 Jared Keslar, Pittsburgh 55 Thomas Snipes, The Citadel Yeah, a couple of obvious ones, and then... Snipes (9 Sparks (v good) & 82 Vigil (not so much)) Burgos (31 Church 51 Keslar) 57 Brett Smith of Northern Illinois took 2nd in MAC (Lost true 2nd) (Q: If he lost the "true 2nd" wrestleback, doesn't that mean he finished 3rd?) 35 Parco Of the guys listed, Parco is the best option, but there has to be better ones. Here's the Pablo list from 21 - 40. Of those eligible (either because there isn't someone else from their team in their place or not auto qualified), who would be the options? 21. 165:Oregon State_Matthew Olguin 22. 165:Missouri_Maxx Mayfield 23. 165:Indiana_Tyler Lillard 24. 165:Rutgers_Andrew Barbosa 25. 165:North Carolina_Bryce Hepner 26. 165:NC State_Will Denny 27. 165:Pennsylvania_Sean Seefeldt 28. 165:Columbia_Cesar Alvan 29. 165:South Dakota State_Jacob Herm 30. 165:Bucknell_Noah Mulvaney 31. 165:Virginia Tech_Mac Church 32. 165:Kent State_Chris Earnest 33. 165:Pittsburgh_Dylan Evans 34. 165:South Dakota State_Marcus EspinozaOwens 35. 165:Stanford_EJ Parco 36. 165:California Baptist_Gabriel Schumm 37. 165:Indiana_Chris Crawford 38. 165:Michigan_Dylan Gilcher 39. 165:Wyoming_Sloan Swan 40. 165:Cornell_Benny Rogers

Let me provide some additional information. Pablo ratings for people mentioned 125 Pounds 30 Desmond Pleasant, Drexel 26 Mack Mauger, Missouri 41 Brady Roark, South Dakota State 22 Nicolar Rivera, Wisconsin 25 Sulayman Bah, Columbia Roark is the only questionable from this perspective but it's not egregious. The others are certainly legit. Just so you know, I'm not going to dig through all the non-automatic qualifiers to see who is more deserving, though, although I can anyone up if you have suggestions. 133 Pounds 28 Braxton Brown, Maryland 13 Dominick Serrano, Northern Colorado (ya think?) 30 Dylan Shawver, Rutgers 50 Marcel Lopez, SIU Edwardsville 23 Luke Willochell Wyoming Lopez is pushing it here. 141 Pounds 20 Pierson Manville, Arizona State 33 Braden Basile, Army West Point 40 Billy DeKraker, Northwestern 50 Matthew Martino, Princeton 58 AJ Rallo 41 Ragusin Princeton got a gift here. Ragusin is closer, but Pablo doesn't think Rallo is in the discussion. 149 Pounds 70 Kaden Cassidy, George Mason 19 Chance Lamer, Nebraska 23 Max Petersen, North Dakota State 35 Eligh Rivera, Princeton 32 Edmond Yeah, swap Edmond for Cassidy. 157 Pounds 29 Mason Shrader, Central Michigan 10 Vinny Zerban, Iowa State 35 Jonathan Ley, Navy 18 Dylan Evans, Pittsburgh 19 Teague Travis (7 Larkin, 9 Watters, 4 Robideau, 10 Zerban, and 15 Jordan Williams; 28 Laird Root). That's a tough schedule. Based on those outcomes, it looks like Pablo has him in the right position, below Williams and ahead of Root. But Pablo likes good losses a lot more than RPI does. None of the 4 at-larges here are bad, but Travis is probably a better wrestler than a couple of them.

Thanks. The challenge is that the dataset is so massive and the calculation takes so long to do that I really can't do regular testing that I'd like to do. But I had two weeks before the conference tournaments to get things clean and in order. It will also be great for getting match pairs to use to analyze predictablity of outcomes.