Seidel vs Forrest 2/15

[creek chub]

2 hours ago, Coastal said:

There's so many things screwed up about the matrix they use.  RPI uses win percentage as a factor then the matrix also uses it.  The Socon or MAC champ gets more placement points than whomever places 2nd in the BIG to Mesenbrink or Mendez.

It leads to things like ducks all over.  Patrick Kennedy sat against Levi Haines because a loss to Haines probably puts him at at least three losses and possibly behind Singleton in the seedings.   Thanks to beating Kharchla, he's probably the three seed instead of the four or five if he finishes second at BIGs.

You'll also see some MFFs at conference tournamentss since the six seed is better than the four or five at weights with a clear cut number one like 141, 165, 174 and 197.

In dealing with a unique case like Forrest, the artificial 15 match requirement for RPI makes things even more asinine.  Yes, picking up three wins over small program backups at an open is more important to his seed than wrestling a top ten opponent.   I think it would be funny if everyone backed out of 133 at that open so he didn't get any countable matches or even funnier if Seidel went to that open instead of the dual.

Ha! You made some great points!!

[creek chub]

Someone posted in the VT forum that Forrest is now a probable for the VT dual. Not sure how accurate that is but at least there’s a glimmer of hope now

[JWC]

Pokes can run three probables out though. RR, Jax, Fig. It makes sense to get Jax more matches in an open.  
 

The “unattached” rule in itself is as sensible as a screen door on a battleship.

[creek chub]

1 minute ago, JWC said:

Pokes can run three probables out though. RR, Jax, Fig. It makes sense to get Jax more matches in an open.  
 

The “unattached” rule in itself is as sensible as a screen door on a battleship.

One open and the conference tourney at most will net 10 matches. Throw in byes and mffs and he likely doesn’t get his 15 match count. 

[BarSeries]

 

[nhs67]

7 hours ago, creek chub said:

One open and the conference tourney at most will net 10 matches. Throw in byes and mffs and he likely doesn’t get his 15 match count. 

That is why they are sending him to an Open this weekend.  On the off chance he 'only' get two matches, he can hit an open next weekend as well.

For reference: Brignola of Lehigh got four matches there last season, however only three counted towards his RPI/record.

Edited February 11 by nhs67

[creek chub]

31 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

That is why they are sending him to an Open this weekend.  On the off chance he 'only' get two matches, he can hit an open next weekend as well.

For reference: Brignola of Lehigh got four matches there last season, however only three counted towards his RPI/record.

There is a post on the VT board that Forrest is now probable against VT. As chaotic as 133 is, it really doesn’t matter too much if he gets an rpi, he just needs to snag a slot at the conference tournament. 

[happyvalet]

37 minutes ago, creek chub said:

There is a post on the VT board that Forrest is now probable against VT. As chaotic as 133 is, it really doesn’t matter too much if he gets an rpi, he just needs to snag a slot at the conference tournament. 

He and Ramirez were both on the probables list for this weekend. Going to an open is still the most likely outcome 

[bnwtwg]

@ionel any inside info where Forest is going undefeated this weekend? 
 

 

[happyvalet]

9 hours ago, creek chub said:

One open and the conference tourney at most will net 10 matches. Throw in byes and mffs and he likely doesn’t get his 15 match count. 

He's at 7 now. Add Iowa and that's 8. So he needs 7 more matches between the open and conferences. He has an 85% chance to get 4 matches at B12 and a 15% chance to get 3. 

So if he gets 4 matches at the open, he's a lock to hit 15. If he gets 3 matches at the open, he has an 85% chance to hit 15. 

Or as @nhs67 pointed out, he could hit another open next weekend and guarantee 15 matches. 

[BigRedFan]

40 minutes ago, happyvalet said:

He's at 7 now. Add Iowa and that's 8. So he needs 7 more matches between the open and conferences. He has an 85% chance to get 4 matches at B12 and a 15% chance to get 3. 

So if he gets 4 matches at the open, he's a lock to hit 15. If he gets 3 matches at the open, he has an 85% chance to hit 15. 

Or as @nhs67 pointed out, he could hit another open next weekend and guarantee 15 matches. 

Or he could just win his way into the NCAA tournament and not really care about his seed.  Does his seed really matter?

[creek chub]

27 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

Or he could just win his way into the NCAA tournament and not really care about his seed.  Does his seed really matter?

No seeds don’t matter that much but especially for him. 

[Dogbone]

Intermat currently has Jax ranked 10th. 

His remaining schedule he could face, Seidel (6), Ayala (8), Frost (3) in the Big 12 tournament. 

If he skips the Seidel match and assuming Seidel wins ACC, its tough to see how he could be seeded above him.    No matter what he does he is most likely behind the B1G champ and possibly the B1G runner up who might only have 1 lost to the B1G champ (Blaze, LL, Byrd all undefeated). 

So if he goes to this open, he might be maxed out in the 4/5 slots.   If he is the undefeated Big 12 champ with a win over the 1 loss ACC Champ he has a better argument to be on the bottom side with a 2 or 3 seed. 

For seeding purposes, he might be better off wrestling Seidel and going to an open the week of the Iowa dual. 

 

Edited February 11 by Dogbone

[creek chub]

17 minutes ago, Coastal said:

No, but getting to 15 and an RPI is important if he were injured and forced to MFF out of the Big 12 and missed a qualifier spot and had to rely on an at-large.

 

Understood but my my response was about seeding irrelevance not qualifying for the NCAA tournament 

[happyvalet]

12 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

Intermat currently has Jax ranked 10th. 

His remaining schedule he could face, Seidel (6), Ayala (8), Frost (3) in the Big 12 tournament. 

If he skips the Seidel match and assuming Seidel wins ACC, its tough to see how he could be seeded above him.    No matter what he does he is most likely behind the B1G champ and possibly the B1G runner up who might only have 1 lost to the B1G champ (Blaze, LL, Byrd all undefeated). 

So if he goes to this open, he might be maxed out in the 4/5 slots.   If he is the undefeated Big 12 champ with a win over the 1 loss ACC Champ he has a better argument to be on the bottom side with a 2 or 3 seed. 

For seeding purposes, he might be better off wrestling Seidel and going to an open the week of the Iowa dual. 

Assuming they each win out, Jax would have wins over #5 Larkin and #3 Frost, which would be better than Seidel's best wins against #19 Redding and #6 Knox.

If he also has 15 matches, that would probably earn the 2 seed behind the B1G winner assuming it's an undefeated wrestler. 

Edited February 11 by happyvalet

[Dogbone]

6 minutes ago, happyvalet said:

Assuming they each win out, Jax would have wins over #5 Larkin and #3 Frost, which would be better than Seidel's best wins against #19 Redding and #6 Knox.

If he also has 15 matches, that would probably earn the 2 seed behind the B1G winner assuming it's an undefeated wrestler. 

You can't move Jax above Seidel when Seidel shows up to the dual that Jax misses.  I know Jax isn't ducking but putting Jax above Seidel would only encourage more ducking.   

I am not an expert on the seeding formula but that doesn't feel right to me at all.  

[happyvalet]

2 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

You can't move Jax above Seidel when Seidel shows up to the dual that Jax misses.  I know Jax isn't ducking but putting Jax above Seidel would only encourage more ducking.   

I am not an expert on the seeding formula but that doesn't feel right to me at all.  

You can if he has a better resume. Frost is still above Jax after missing the dual. Watters stayed above Robideau after missing the dual. I understand and sympathize with your point though. Ducking and strength of schedule should matter a lot more than it currently does 

[Dogbone]

17 minutes ago, Coastal said:

What opens are you suggesting?   There just aren't many this late.

You don't need many, just one.   It was suggested earlier in this thread that if he receives too many FF this weekend he could need another open to get to 15, but if you have done your research and are telling us there isn't one at all then I would believe you.

[Dogbone]

8 minutes ago, happyvalet said:

You can if he has a better resume. Frost is still above Jax after missing the dual. Watters stayed above Robideau after missing the dual. I understand and sympathize with your point though. Ducking and strength of schedule should matter a lot more than it currently does 

Wouldn't your examples help Seidel? if he never takes a lose he stays above the guys below him.   Robideau had a better resume but remained behind Watters. 

[creek chub]

9 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

You don't need many, just one.   It was suggested earlier in this thread that if he receives too many FF this weekend he could need another open to get to 15, but if you have done your research and are telling us there isn't one at all then I would believe you.

The patriot open is after the VT dual. Jax has opportunities to wrestle Seidel and an open. The question is will it happen 

[bnwtwg]

Wrestling world: "How many matches are you going to get? Your seed is very important if you want to achieve your goals! You need to be very worried about how you can balance the #6 college wrestler and a JV tournament!"
 

Jax Forrest: "Do you know what I was doing September 13-14, 2025 at the age of 18 without your precious seed?"

[ionel]

2 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

@ionel any inside info where Forest is going undefeated this weekend? 
 

 

No inside intel.  I still say he should go to VT that the 15 doesn't really help him he should easily reach the q level in B12.  Its a bit of a crap shoot going open if get a bye, someone withdraws on you etc, same thing in B12 tourney.  Couple folks suggested what if Seidel ducked the dual.  Well that'd be silly, who do we thing VT fans are showing up to see?  Think reported some where on here that VT board suggesting Jax might do the dual.  But no I have no inside ionel intel ... I could phone a friend but ... 

[happyvalet]

1 hour ago, Dogbone said:

Wouldn't your examples help Seidel? if he never takes a lose he stays above the guys below him.   Robideau had a better resume but remained behind Watters. 

Watters ranking was based on getting 4th in his previous NCAAs and Robideau's best win (Cardenas) was ranked behind both of them. 

In the scenario of Jax and Seidel both going undefeated through conferences, Jax will have beaten two guys ranked ahead of Seidel. 

[bnwtwg]

1 hour ago, ionel said:

No inside intel.  I still say he should go to VT that the 15 doesn't really help him he should easily reach the q level in B12.  Its a bit of a crap shoot going open if get a bye, someone withdraws on you etc, same thing in B12 tourney.  Couple folks suggested what if Seidel ducked the dual.  Well that'd be silly, who do we thing VT fans are showing up to see?  Think reported some where on here that VT board suggesting Jax might do the dual.  But no I have no inside ionel intel ... I could phone a friend but ... 

I think you're missing the Forest for the trees

[ionel]

6 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

I think you're missing the Forest for the trees

This is a year when most folks want to miss the forrest!