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Expected Points: Post NDI Edition

PortaJohn

By PortaJohn
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PortaJohn Big Brain

PortaJohn

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Posted

@Wrestleknownothing might of left us but who's to say we can't hijack his great posts elsewhere.....

The National Duals Invitational was good enough to provide us with a ton of results in a short period of time.

Even better is there were a ton of upsets leading to a ton of movement.

Isn't that a ton of fun?

Team Expected Points

The headline is that things got tighter at the top. At least on the surface they did. While much was learned about Ohio State, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and others, much still needs to be learned about Penn State. Flo does not yet have PJ Duke in their top 33 at 157 and no one knows what to make of Cole Mirasola yet. Combined that with their low expectations for Aaron Nagao and Penn State has some guaranteed (Duke) built in upside and some suspected (Mirasola, Nagao).

11-18-25-Expected-Points.png

Cha-Cha-Changes
Time may change seeds, but....

There has been a fair amount of movement in the team race. Some of that is due to highly ranked wrestlers in the pre-season going the redshirt (or second semester only) route and some due to results.

The most upwardly mobile team has been Oklahoma State gaining nearly 31 expected points since the pre-season, a cool 56% jump.

Nebraska has had the opposite experience. But after last March are you prepared to write them off so soon?

11-17-25-Biggest-Expected-Points-Change-Team.png

Is It a Team Sport? Or an Individual Sport?

That debate has not been louder in recent years than it is now that the NDI has concluded. So let's look at the individual movers and shakers that are contributing the most to those team numbers.

Backing out wrestlers who were backed out of lineups below are the 15 largest improvements and the 15 largest room for improvements.

There are a lot of big names on that list, but it is amazing that Oklahoma State has the three biggest upwardly mobile wrestlers and one of the opposite.

11-17-25-Biggest-Expected-Points-Change-Wrestler.png

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

Pinnacle Big Brain

Pinnacle

Posted
Posted

I am trying to figure out how Penn State expected points fell 9.8 pts. On Intermat , four weight classes improved, 157 remains at 0, and 184 dropped from 2 to 4. 

nhs67 Big Brain

nhs67

Posted
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

I am trying to figure out how Penn State expected points fell 9.8 pts. On Intermat , four weight classes improved, 157 remains at 0, and 184 dropped from 2 to 4. 

Were Nagao and Mirasola higher ranked?

Edit: NVM.  I think they Lilledahl to 1 from 3 would offset the Welsh from 2 to 4, but I am not sure what they did at 133lbs in their last rankings.  I imagine they lost some points there?

Edited by nhs67

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

MPhillips Big Brain

MPhillips

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Did WKN give you permission to post his work here?

He's said/written many times that his work is for everyone. He has no issue with the sharing of his information...:classic_dry:

 

.

PortaJohn Big Brain

PortaJohn

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  • Author
Posted
9 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

He's said/written many times that his work is for everyone. He has no issue with the sharing of his information...:classic_dry:

 

🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 🚬 

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

ionel Big Brain

ionel

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

He's said/written many times that his work is for everyone. He has no issue with the sharing of his information...:classic_dry:

 

Think he said share it with anyone but Jimmy.  

.

PortaJohn Big Brain

PortaJohn

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Posted
7 minutes ago, ionel said:

Think he said share it with anyone but Jimmy.  

Because of health and safety issues.  Concerned it could make his brain bleed

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

PortaJohn Big Brain

PortaJohn

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Posted
3 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

Thanks PortaJohn for keeping this spirit alive.  WKN would be proud.  I emailed a little with him back and forth and he says hello to all!

See if you can get him over to 247.  I'll look for him over there

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

MPhillips Big Brain

MPhillips

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Because of health and safety issues.  Concerned it could make his brain bleed

He's got a little hero worshipper who will take care of him...

.

ionel Big Brain

ionel

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

See if you can get him over to 247.  I'll look for him over there

He hasn't drowned ... he shows up in other places.  🏊‍♂️ 

.

Pinnacle Big Brain

Pinnacle

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Were Nagao and Mirasola higher ranked?

Edit: NVM.  I think they Lilledahl to 1 from 3 would offset the Welsh from 2 to 4, but I am not sure what they did at 133lbs in their last rankings.  I imagine they lost some points there?

125, 133, and 141 all improved. 133 was unranked and is now something like 14. 

nhs67 Big Brain

nhs67

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

125, 133, and 141 all improved. 133 was unranked and is now something like 14. 

Did they have Davis in there and have him higher ranked, like 5 or 6 or 7?

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

Nak21 College Starter

Nak21

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Pinnacle said:

I am trying to figure out how Penn State expected points fell 9.8 pts. On Intermat , four weight classes improved, 157 remains at 0, and 184 dropped from 2 to 4. 

It’s preseason to present, so maybe it’s the net of Kasak being pulled out (due to RS) and Duke being put in (but not ranked yet due to various sites ranking freshman rules/Duke hasn’t competed yet) coupled with the small movements at other weights, that leads to the net -9.8 difference??

This year and next it’s all likely academic, come March I think you see a large number of placement pts scored and sprinkle in the usual PSU trend of an extra 3rd place finisher worth of bonus to boot. The race is for 2nd this year and next.

Pinnacle Big Brain

Pinnacle

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Nak21 said:

It’s preseason to present, so maybe it’s the net of Kasak being pulled out (due to RS) and Duke being put in (but not ranked yet due to various sites ranking freshman rules/Duke hasn’t competed yet) coupled with the small movements at other weights, that leads to the net -9.8 difference??

 

I think you may be onto it.

Obviously, once we get to Big Ten schedule the cumulative results for Blaze and Duke will have them at or near the top.

bnwtwg Big Brain

bnwtwg

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

@Wrestleknownothing might of left us but who's to say we can't hijack his great posts elsewhere.....

Not right. It's like raising a child, sometimes you have to let them make a mistake so they can learn a lesson.

WKN raised valid points that have been shared by many others for a long time. WKN made a statement akin to "I don't like the direction this forum is moving any further, and I bring value, at the cost of my own time and energy bill dime, that I do not wish to share at this forum anymore."

Respect WKN's autonomy. Who are we to plagiarize his work and share against his wishes?

i am an idiot on the internet

PortaJohn Big Brain

PortaJohn

Posted
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Not right. It's like raising a child, sometimes you have to let them make a mistake so they can learn a lesson.

WKN raised valid points that have been shared by many others for a long time. WKN made a statement akin to "I don't like the direction this forum is moving any further, and I bring value, at the cost of my own time and energy bill dime, that I do not wish to share at this forum anymore."

Respect WKN's autonomy. Who are we to plagiarize his work and share against his wishes?

He's been very clear he wants his work shared with all.  If anything, I'm honoring his legacy.  Also, plagiarizing would be me claiming it as my own.  The source is noted.

Edited by PortaJohn

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

bnwtwg Big Brain

bnwtwg

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PortaJohn said:

He's been very clear he wants his work shared with all.  If anything, I'm honoring his legacy.  Also, plagiarizing would be me claiming it as my own.  The source is noted.

I respect that. Of course, he could always be extended an olive branch to make a return which would be an ideal situation for all involved.

i am an idiot on the internet

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