Hodge Winners By Dominance

[PortaJohn]

  On 4/1/2025 at 7:07 PM, ionel said:

... i heard he didnt even take a shot at the fairway.  

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You could metaphorically argue that but the ball did go off the tee and missed the fairway by a wide margin.  It went out of play

[ionel]

  On 4/1/2025 at 7:11 PM, PortaJohn said:

You could metaphorically argue that but the ball did go off the tee and missed the fairway by a wide margin.  It went out of play

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heard he took a penalty for that ... pain in the as* er hip. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 4/1/2025 at 6:34 PM, jross said:

Since we’re on the subject of Askren, I’m basically an NCAA champ by proxy. My junior year in high school, I beat a kid who took down Shawn Silvis back in the day, and Silvis, as a college senior, punked freshman Askren at some open tournament. So, by the glorious transitive law of mat supremacy, me, the 20 dudes who flattened me in high school, and my sister, who laid me out cold before I hit double digits, are all strutting around.

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This tracks.

[Wrasslin]

  On 4/1/2025 at 6:34 PM, jross said:

Since we’re on the subject of Askren, I’m basically an NCAA champ by proxy. My junior year in high school, I beat a kid who took down Shawn Silvis back in the day, and Silvis, as a college senior, punked freshman Askren at some open tournament. So, by the glorious transitive law of mat supremacy, me, the 20 dudes who flattened me in high school, and my sister, who laid me out cold before I hit double digits, are all strutting around.

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OMG- we need a trophy emoji for stuff like this . . . "and my sister, who laid me out cold before I hit double digits" . . . I can't emphasize enough how much I love this post! 

[jross]

@Wrestleknownothing
 

2007 Askren - Unaccounted for match update

• February 14, 2007: vs. Old Dominion
  • Missed with the flu
• February 18, 2007: vs. Tennessee-Chattanooga (not on MU schedule online but is in the paper)
  • Major Decision vs. Lloyd Rogers (Tennessee-Chattanooga): 10-1

An article on March 11th says 70 wins in a row.  45 from 2006 and we can infer 35 in 2007 as of March 11th (after Big 12).  This aligns with my confirmed matches, if we accept the unaccounted for 6 matches in the early season.

An article on March 13th says 34-0 heading into the NCAAs. (clearly missing the Feb 18 match)

An article on March 14th says 36-0. (was he gifted the Old Dominion match that he didn't participate in)

The papers do not agree.  

I still can't figure out where he wrestled 6 extra matches compared to his team before the season opener against Ohio State.

[jammen]

Jason Ness- 31-0 with 19 pins.  Career 73 pins: 15,20,19,19

 

[ionel]

  On 4/1/2025 at 10:39 PM, jammen said:

Jason Ness- 31-0 with 19 pins.  Career 73 pins: 15,20,19,19

 

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... kid just couldn't go 7 minutes.  

[Scouts Honor]

  On 4/1/2025 at 4:28 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Take the exact rankings with a grain of salt. Also consider this a cry for help.

I cannot find TF, or MD stats for 1999 Stephen Neal, 2001 Nick Ackerman, 2004 Emmett Wilson, 2007 Ben Askren, or 2010 Jayson Ness. Their dominance scores are higher than what I have hear, as a result. Any help with filling in the missing pieces would be appreciated.

I also need breakdowns between TF and MD for 1995 TJ Jaworsky, 1998 Mark Ironside, and 2013 Kyle Dake. For these I know how many combined TF/MD they had, but not the split between TF and MD. I just used a 50/50 split.

The net result is that Stephen Neal, and 2007 Ben Askren will be at or near the top if the data can be found.

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what if we defined dominance by the number of wrestlers who vacate a weight?

IE... how many guys moved weights when cael announced he was going 197

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 4/1/2025 at 10:39 PM, jammen said:

Jason Ness- 31-0 with 19 pins.  Career 73 pins: 15,20,19,19

 

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Any idea how many TF and MD in 2010?

[MidniteToka]

  On 4/1/2025 at 6:34 PM, jross said:

Since we’re on the subject of Askren, I’m basically an NCAA champ by proxy. My junior year in high school, I beat a kid who took down Shawn Silvis back in the day, and Silvis, as a college senior, punked freshman Askren at some open tournament. So, by the glorious transitive law of mat supremacy, me, the 20 dudes who flattened me in high school, and my sister, who laid me out cold before I hit double digits, are all strutting around.

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I had one of those sisters too, 8 yrs older.  By the time I was getting ready to hold my own against her, she up and left home got married.  20 years later, I still can't whup up on her because her husband has about 5 in and 75 lbs on me.  

[jross]

  On 4/1/2025 at 10:37 PM, jross said:

@Wrestleknownothing

2007 Askren - Unaccounted for match update

• February 14, 2007: vs. Old Dominion
  • Missed with the flu
• February 18, 2007: vs. Tennessee-Chattanooga (not on MU schedule online but is in the paper)
  • Major Decision vs. Lloyd Rogers (Tennessee-Chattanooga): 10-1

An article on March 11th says 70 wins in a row.  45 from 2006 and we can infer 35 in 2007 as of March 11th (after Big 12).  This aligns with my confirmed matches, if we accept the unaccounted for 6 matches in the early season.

An article on March 13th says 34-0 heading into the NCAAs. (clearly missing the Feb 18 match)

An article on March 14th says 36-0. (was he gifted the Old Dominion match that he didn't participate in)

The papers do not agree.  

I still can't figure out where he wrestled 6 extra matches compared to his team before the season opener against Ohio State.

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The six unaccounted for matches in the early season are identified  @Wrestleknownothing

Central Missouri State University Open Tournament (not on Missouri schedule and no brackets to be found...)

November 12, 2006

1. Fall vs. unknown
2. Fall vs. unknown
3. Fall vs. unknown
4. Fall vs. unknown
5. Major Decision vs. Jeff James (Oklahoma-unattached): 17-7
6. Fall vs. Joey Garrity (Orion, Ill.): 36 

https://mutigers.com/news/2006/11/13/Missouri_Wrestlers_Earn_CMSU_Open_Titles
 

Wrestling unattached, two Missouri grapplers, senior returning National Champion Ben Askren (Hartland, Wis.) ... 

Three-time All-American Askren added five pins to his previous Missouri record-setting mark of 62. Securing six victories on the day with only one, a semifinal bout with Jeff James (Oklahoma-unattached) decided by major decision (17-7), Askren met with Garrity in title match to wrap up the day. Garrity advanced through his side of the 174-pound bracket tallying three decisions and a technical fall victory over Tom Edwards (McKendree College) in 5:33, before squaring off with Askren. In the end, Askren came out the victor (fall, 36 seconds), handing Garrity a runner-up finish.

 

2007 Ben Askren

Reported

• 42-0
  • 29 Pins (23 first period) - 69.1%

Confirmed (updated)

• 41-0
  • 29 Falls by Pin (70.7%)
  • 2 Technical Falls
  • 6 Major Decisions
• 4 Decisions (9.8%)

This leaves one match unaccounted for late in the season.  One can infer it was not a pin because the confirmed pins matches the reported pins.  One can confirm it was not the scheduled Old Dominion match that he missed from being sick, because his back up lost. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 4/2/2025 at 12:09 PM, jross said:

The six unaccounted for matches in the early season are identified  @Wrestleknownothing

Central Missouri State University Open Tournament (not on Missouri schedule and no brackets to be found...)

November 12, 2006

1. Fall vs. unknown
2. Fall vs. unknown
3. Fall vs. unknown
4. Fall vs. unknown
5. Major Decision vs. Jeff James (Oklahoma-unattached): 17-7
6. Fall vs. Joey Garrity (Orion, Ill.): 36 

https://mutigers.com/news/2006/11/13/Missouri_Wrestlers_Earn_CMSU_Open_Titles
 

Wrestling unattached, two Missouri grapplers, senior returning National Champion Ben Askren (Hartland, Wis.) ... 

Three-time All-American Askren added five pins to his previous Missouri record-setting mark of 62. Securing six victories on the day with only one, a semifinal bout with Jeff James (Oklahoma-unattached) decided by major decision (17-7), Askren met with Garrity in title match to wrap up the day. Garrity advanced through his side of the 174-pound bracket tallying three decisions and a technical fall victory over Tom Edwards (McKendree College) in 5:33, before squaring off with Askren. In the end, Askren came out the victor (fall, 36 seconds), handing Garrity a runner-up finish.

 

2007 Ben Askren

Reported

• 42-0
  • 29 Pins (23 first period) - 69.1%

Confirmed (updated)

• 41-0
  • 29 Falls by Pin (70.7%)
  • 2 Technical Falls
  • 6 Major Decisions
• 4 Decisions (9.8%)

This leaves one match unaccounted for late in the season.  One can infer it was not a pin because the confirmed pins matches the reported pins.  One can confirm it was not the scheduled Old Dominion match that he missed from being sick, because his back up lost. 

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Impressive sleuthing, j. Thanks for this.

I remember Askren on FRL a while back talking about going to opens with lesser competition on his own so he could fatten up his PF totals.

[headshuck]

  On 4/1/2025 at 10:39 PM, jammen said:

Jason Ness- 31-0 with 19 pins.  Career 73 pins: 15,20,19,19
 

He should buy me lunch for vigorously defending his Hodge for months.

[jross]

WIN article on Ness explains why Pindrickson won the Hodge this year.

  Quote

 

Ness pinned 19 of 31 opponents for a stingy pinning percentage of 61 percent, including 13 of his first 14 opponents. Sixteen of the 19 pins came in the first period for the Bloomington, Minnesota native.

The two runner-ups for this year’s Hodge Trophy were Iowa State’s Jake Varner and Iowa’s Jay Borschel, champs at 197 and 174 respectively. Varner won his second straight national title, finishing 32-0. Borschel capped a perfect 37-0 season with his first NCAA crown.

But the reason Ness was selected over Varner and Borschel was the number of pins he had, nearly doubling both his counterparts. Varner and Borschel both finished the year with 10 apiece. Borschel’s pinning percentage was 27 percent, Varner’s 31 percent.

Varner has had better past credentials than Ness as a four-time finalist, but the award is a single-season award. Past credentials are used in tiebreaker situations where pin numbers, for example, are nearly equal.

Ness, a four-time All-American, capped off a career that saw previous finishes of fifth (2007), second (2008) and third (2009) at the NCAAs. He was at 125 his first two seasons.

When asked about his approach to pinning, Ness said it’s a matter of “imposing your will” on your opponent.

“In wrestling, both guys want to do something. Nobody wants to get pinned. To be able to put a guy there you really have to exert a lot of energy and effort. That’s something that J has always preached,” Ness said.

 

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https://www.win-magazine.com/win-awards/hodge-trophy/jayson-ness-2010-hodge-trophy-winner/

[jross]

  On 4/1/2025 at 4:28 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Take the exact rankings with a grain of salt. Also consider this a cry for help.

2010 Jayson Ness. 

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2010 Jayson Ness

31-0, 19 pins, 1 injury default, 11 decisions
 

Did not wrestle a stretch of duals between Jan 10 through the end of Jan.  Missed 6 matches.

https://gophersports.com/sports/wrestling/schedule/2009-10

https://gophersports.com/sports/2018/5/21/sports-m-wrestl-archive-minn-m-wrestl-2009-html

[jross]

  On 4/1/2025 at 4:28 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Take the exact rankings with a grain of salt. Also consider this a cry for help.

2013 Kyle Dake

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Looks like Cornel posts the recaps

• https://cornellbigred.com/sports/wrestling/schedule/2012-13

Example:

• https://cornellbigred.com/news/2013/1/1/WREST_0101134618.aspx

Southern Scuffle 165 - Kyle Dake
Champ. Round 1 - Kyle Dake (Cornell ) received a bye () (Bye)
Champ. Round 2 - Kyle Dake (Cornell ) won by pin over Marshal Willet (Ohio ) (Pin 1:23)
Champ. Round 3 - Kyle Dake (Cornell ) won by major decision over Paul Duggan (Campbell ) (Maj 13-1)
Quarterfinal - Kyle Dake (Cornell ) won by pin over Nijel Jones (North Carolina State) (Pin 3:50)

[Drew Newcomb]

When it comes to the Hodge Trophy there is "Dominance" score and bonus % that is referenced a lot when comparing wrestlers. I also wonder if a helpful stat of like Team Points/Mat Time (PPM-Points Per Minuet) to get an idea of how much wrestling a guy is actually doing to dominate. I am not saying that this stat should/shouldn't qualify a wrestler for Hodge or be the end-all-be-all of stats when deciding a winner, however I do believe it could be helpful data when the finalist are very close such as this year.

Team points would need to be scored as though they are dual team points, this way all matches can be scored evenly. Example pins are worth 6team points in a dual and at CKLV/Conference/NCAAs. Scoring this way would reward aggressive wrestling/dominance for all matches, which is something I believe a Hodge Trophy winner should be in the first place. PPM would reward pins (especially in the 1st period) & Tech Falls appropriately, would hurt guys who have to go to SV/TB to seal the win, and it would greatly punish losses.

This could be applied for multiple categories such as vs All Opponents, vs Non-NQ, vs NQ, vs R12, and vs AA. If there was a weighted scale (WPPM) based on the average number of matches past Hodge Trophy Winners vs each category have in the year they won. With the weighted scale it could put more importance on Wins/bonus point wins vs AA as those matches would be included in the vs NQ, vs R12, and vs AA. The weighted scale would also allow for bonus points wins (especially 1st round pins) vs Non-NQ. 

Example WPPM=(0.3*PPMvsNon-NQ)+(0.3*PPMvsNQ)+(0.2*PPMvsR12)+(0.2*PPMvsAA) 

(The weights {0.3 &0.2} in the formula above are just guesses, these would likely be adjusted to better reflect past Hodge winning seasons if that is what would be best for a baseline.)

This is just an idea that I have and am interested in seeing what the finalist for this year would be.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 4/4/2025 at 1:16 PM, Drew Newcomb said:

When it comes to the Hodge Trophy there is "Dominance" score and bonus % that is referenced a lot when comparing wrestlers. I also wonder if a helpful stat of like Team Points/Mat Time (PPM-Points Per Minuet) to get an idea of how much wrestling a guy is actually doing to dominate. I am not saying that this stat should/shouldn't qualify a wrestler for Hodge or be the end-all-be-all of stats when deciding a winner, however I do believe it could be helpful data when the finalist are very close such as this year.

Team points would need to be scored as though they are dual team points, this way all matches can be scored evenly. Example pins are worth 6team points in a dual and at CKLV/Conference/NCAAs. Scoring this way would reward aggressive wrestling/dominance for all matches, which is something I believe a Hodge Trophy winner should be in the first place. PPM would reward pins (especially in the 1st period) & Tech Falls appropriately, would hurt guys who have to go to SV/TB to seal the win, and it would greatly punish losses.

This could be applied for multiple categories such as vs All Opponents, vs Non-NQ, vs NQ, vs R12, and vs AA. If there was a weighted scale (WPPM) based on the average number of matches past Hodge Trophy Winners vs each category have in the year they won. With the weighted scale it could put more importance on Wins/bonus point wins vs AA as those matches would be included in the vs NQ, vs R12, and vs AA. The weighted scale would also allow for bonus points wins (especially 1st round pins) vs Non-NQ. 

Example WPPM=(0.3*PPMvsNon-NQ)+(0.3*PPMvsNQ)+(0.2*PPMvsR12)+(0.2*PPMvsAA) 

(The weights {0.3 &0.2} in the formula above are just guesses, these would likely be adjusted to better reflect past Hodge winning seasons if that is what would be best for a baseline.)

This is just an idea that I have and am interested in seeing what the finalist for this year would be.

 

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I like the general idea (I know someone on HVI does this, or did this in the past, for PSU wrestlers), but your instinct is right that the weights need to change. As stated you are giving non-NQ and NQ who not make the BR the same weight. Ditto for BR and AA.

Simplifying you equation gets (0.3(Non-NQ + NQ not in BR or better)) + (0.5(NQ in BR or better))

Alternatively, if you meant the categories to be non-overlapping (i.e. NQ who doesn't BR or better, NQ who loses in BR, NQ who AA's) then you are overweighting non-NQ and underweighting AAs. Something like 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 for successive categories would make more sense.

 

[ionel]

  On 4/2/2025 at 12:09 PM, jross said:

The six unaccounted for matches in the early season are identified  @Wrestleknownothing

Central Missouri State University Open Tournament (not on Missouri schedule and no brackets to be found...)

November 12, 2006

1. Fall vs. unknown
2. Fall vs. unknown
3. Fall vs. unknown
4. Fall vs. unknown
5. Major Decision vs. Jeff James (Oklahoma-unattached): 17-7
6. Fall vs. Joey Garrity (Orion, Ill.): 36 

https://mutigers.com/news/2006/11/13/Missouri_Wrestlers_Earn_CMSU_Open_Titles
 

Wrestling unattached, two Missouri grapplers, senior returning National Champion Ben Askren (Hartland, Wis.) ... 

Three-time All-American Askren added five pins to his previous Missouri record-setting mark of 62. Securing six victories on the day with only one, a semifinal bout with Jeff James (Oklahoma-unattached) decided by major decision (17-7), Askren met with Garrity in title match to wrap up the day. Garrity advanced through his side of the 174-pound bracket tallying three decisions and a technical fall victory over Tom Edwards (McKendree College) in 5:33, before squaring off with Askren. In the end, Askren came out the victor (fall, 36 seconds), handing Garrity a runner-up finish.

 

2007 Ben Askren

Reported

• 42-0
  • 29 Pins (23 first period) - 69.1%

Confirmed (updated)

• 41-0
  • 29 Falls by Pin (70.7%)
  • 2 Technical Falls
  • 6 Major Decisions
• 4 Decisions (9.8%)

This leaves one match unaccounted for late in the season.  One can infer it was not a pin because the confirmed pins matches the reported pins.  One can confirm it was not the scheduled Old Dominion match that he missed from being sick, because his back up lost. 

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And yet with that ~71% rate not a single mention of the mythical pinfall.

  On 4/2/2025 at 12:16 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Impressive sleuthing, j. Thanks for this.

I remember Askren on FRL a while back talking about going to opens with lesser competition on his own so he could fatten up his PF totals.

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Please provide a link to video where Askren ever speaks of this "pinfall" anomaly.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 4/4/2025 at 1:51 PM, ionel said:

And yet with that ~71% rate not a single mention of the mythical pinfall.

Please provide a link to video where Askren ever speaks of this "pinfall" anomaly.  

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That is an extra credit assignment for you. 

[ionel]

  On 4/4/2025 at 1:53 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

That is an extra credit assignment for you. 

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Even your intern knows that's wasted research effort.