Iowa at PSU Predictions - Fourth Annual

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Elevator said:

I will call upsets at 133 and 197, and with blue and white glasses Lions 34-0.   Starocci's praise of Barr's training intensity is enough for me at 197.

where are your bonus points coming from?

[TylerDurden]

On 1/28/2025 at 3:38 PM, 1032004 said:

 

 

Cael's real genius is his roster management. He loses two national champs and one runner-up and I'm over here wondering if next season's team will be better than this one. 

[CHROMEBIRD]

17 hours ago, Le duke said:

125: Lilledahl dec Cruz. 3-0. PSU. This could be an MD if Cruz is aggressive. If you try to turn it into a 7 minute match as opposed to a 30 second match with Luke Lilledahl, you're playing with fire. 

 

Cruz is a tough kid, but Lilledahl is going to throttle him. Luke will be wrestling with a chip on his shoulder after the Rutgers dual, and he'll be at home at his first Nit-Hawk (uh). And Cruz is more likely to push the action rather than wrestle a chess match, which will translate into a bunch of points of Lilledahl. I can't really see Terry coaching Cruz into suddenly being more selective with his attacks.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Since we appear to have hit a wall, I will post the "final" results.

Some Accounting

Turns out I am a bad accountant. I miscounted. There are only 49 entries. But I will let you keep the cash prize @Ragu for the 50th entry.

Here is what I have for each of the 49 entries. If anyone feels their entry is in error, please let me know.

There are 40 Intermat entries (an all time high), and 6 HVI and 1 HR (both all time lows), to go along with one from Twitter, and Willie's prediction.

 

Wisdom Of The Crowds

If you believe in that sort of stuff, the final score prediction is......

 

Spread 'Em

On HVI I saw someone say they saw a betting line of Iowa +21.5. With our WOTC Predicted spread of 17.5, maybe it is time to take Iowa and the points (not gambling advice).

The distribution of differences looks like this:

 

Who You Calling a Lier?

Nobody. I said outlier. Settle down.

As you can see there are a few outliers in the stack.

• @Mr. PeanutButter wins the Hawkeyed Cockeyed Optimist Award for greatest Iowa fan. But he is a singular bird of that feather. I am frankly shocked and disappointed at the practicality of the rest of Hawkeye nation. Two thirds of PBJ sees Iowa taking 6 of 10. Nobody else could talk themselves into even 5 wins for Brands' Boys.
• For goodness sake, even the greatest four three time champ in Hawk History (@Spencerlee) has the Nittany Lyings Lions winning by 14. For shame.
• On the flip side, who woulda thunk it? We have a Wolverine in Lions' clothing. At 37-0, @nhs67 exposes the lie. He can claim to be a Michigan fan all he wants. We know better. 
• Only baccafarmer (HVI, no duh), Kale_yeah (guess where), @Pish (who hides as psih69 on HVI), and your faithful author could also see PSU hitting the triple decade.

 

What Abouts The Bouts?

But enough about us. What about the wrestlers?

Glad you asked.

• Kerkvliet, Haines, and Bartlett are the only unanimous choices.
• Iowa is favored in 3 matches with Ayala the biggest favorite, followed by Buchanon and Teemer.
• Teemer v Kasak appears to be the most interesting match of the night at a near 50/50 split.
• But I feel like Buchanon v Barr should be given the 22 points in 1:19 onslaught we witnessed last week.
• But come on. Don't be stupid. It has to be the match that will end with a beheading, right? Two bold statements have been made. The first one turned out to be silly. But now we get a chance to see one of them actually backed up. Or sorta backed up. I do not expect an actual beheading.

 

He Shoots. He Scores.

From a scoring perspective things move around a bit.

• While Mikey Caliendo got one vote of confidence (we see you @RawDog) the expectation is that Mesenbrink will do more damage than a Lion in an aviary.
• And in a shocker, Beau "One Shot, Everyone Knows The Rules" Bartlett is the collective second favorite to take a second shot. Or maybe you guys just like him for the back points (aka near pinfall points)?
• At the other end of the spectrum is the one, if we are really being honest, we are tuning in to see. Two Brands. Two Team Point Deductions. Too bad Vegas doesn't offer a prop bet.

 

I have told the wife every night this week what I am planning to do on Friday night. Come join me. I think I will crack open some spirits for the big event. But if clean living is your thing, then God Bless.

[1032004]

Saw this come up on social media:

 

Man these guys have really went in opposite directions since then.  

Kasak is 25-3 since, beat Rathjen 8-1 at Big Tens, finished 3rd at NCAA’s and is 12-0 this season.

Rathjen is 11-6 since (11-7 counting a MFFL), went 1-2 at NCAA’s and is not a starter this season

 

[RawDog]

This is incredible! Thanks for this!