Why designating cartels as terrorist organizations or using the military to go after them in Mexico will fail

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

As a historian, I think we could focus primarily on disrupting the cartels' supply of contraband and means of production, while hopefully not being drawn into a guerilla war.  Take some of their military and personnel assets off the board, as well.

My biggest fear would be how dangerous the cartels would be to us domestically.  I have seen experts talk about two really bad scenarios if we were to go to war with cartels:

1) Cartels deliberately poison the drug supply (even more than it already is) and overloading the US healthcare system.

2) Cartel members and affiliates in every city in America who are well armed and have murderous intentions being given orders to create mass casualties

[Offthemat]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

And the best armed and trained forces in the world routinely lose service members in armed conflicts with lesser funded, poorer trained and significantly smaller organizations.

The cartels should not be underestimated.

https://www.cato.org/blog/idea-whose-time-should-never-come-using-special-forces-against-cartels-would-be-colossal


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And I would venture that the cartels wouldn’t stand up too well to those lesser funded, poorer trained forces.  

[Offthemat]

48 minutes ago, Le duke said:

 

No, I’m just a person with significantly more military experience than you, involving less sophisticated organizations that, despite being at significant technological disadvantages, managed to kill or maim a lot of people I care(d) about.

So, maybe you should just shut the ***duck** up, eh?


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Whoa there.  You haven’t earned that right.  

[PortaJohn]

39 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

As a historian, I think we could focus primarily on disrupting the cartels' supply of contraband and means of production, while hopefully not being drawn into a guerilla war.  Take some of their military and personnel assets off the board, as well.

My biggest fear would be how dangerous the cartels would be to us domestically.  I have seen experts talk about two really bad scenarios if we were to go to war with cartels:

1) Cartels deliberately poison the drug supply (even more than it already is) and overloading the US healthcare system.

2) Cartel members and affiliates in every city in America who are well armed and have murderous intentions being given orders to create mass casualties

Have read those fears and find them somewhat sensationalized.  What gains do the Cartels make by destabilizing their market.  It's far easier, more logical, and financially prudent to go into hiding.  The two things the Cartels can bank on is a) the addiction market in the US is going nowhere b) our Government half asses everything and our commitment to ending the cartels would merely be momentary 

[Offthemat]

45 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

As a historian, I think we could focus primarily on disrupting the cartels' supply of contraband and means of production, while hopefully not being drawn into a guerilla war.  Take some of their military and personnel assets off the board, as well.

My biggest fear would be how dangerous the cartels would be to us domestically.  I have seen experts talk about two really bad scenarios if we were to go to war with cartels:

1) Cartels deliberately poison the drug supply (even more than it already is) and overloading the US healthcare system.

2) Cartel members and affiliates in every city in America who are well armed and have murderous intentions being given orders to create mass casualties

The easy way to get at the cartels without shots being fired would be to go after their money.  Their banking.  Even their cash purchases.  But the reason they don’t do that is because of who is getting the money.  And I don’t mean the cartels or their leaders.  

[Caveira]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

 

No, I’m just a person with significantly more military experience than you, involving less sophisticated organizations that, despite being at significant technological disadvantages, managed to kill or maim a lot of people I care(d) about.

So, maybe you should just shut the ***duck** up, eh?


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I heard a rumor your nickname in the military was captain do nothing.   Joking of course I am. 
 

but did you check out the movie PCU?   It is delightful.  

[Bigbrog]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

 

No, I’m just a person with significantly more military experience than you, involving less sophisticated organizations that, despite being at significant technological disadvantages, managed to kill or maim a lot of people I care(d) about.

So, maybe you should just shut the ***duck** up, eh?


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 Post like this always crack me up...keep on with yo bad self Le allknowingeverythingmilitarysogofyourself

[Le duke]

 Post like this always crack me up...keep on with yo bad self Le allknowingeverythingmilitarysogofyourself

I don’t claim to know everything.

But something is more than nothing. And, I have experiences that he doesn’t.

He knows a lot more than I do about programming and coding. I stumbled my way through Python and R in grad school. Tip of the cap. If I make a dumbass statement about any programming language, and get dunked on, that’s what I get.


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[Caveira]

5 minutes ago, Le duke said:

I don’t claim to know everything.

But something is more than nothing. And, I have experiences that he doesn’t.

He knows a lot more than I do about programming and coding. I stumbled my way through Python and R in grad school. Tip of the cap. If I make a dumbass statement about any programming language, and get dunked on, that’s what I get.


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Save as file military_expert.py.   At the command line first pip install python.  Then run “python military_expert.py”

import random
import time
import math

for _ in range(50_000):  
    # Simulate some calculations
    mission_success_rate = random.uniform(85, 99.9)
    enemy_engagements = random.randint(5, 50)
    stealth_factor = round(math.log(random.randint(10, 1000)), 2)

    # Print statements about being a military expert in special operations
    print("Initializing special operations briefing...\n")
    
    print(f"As a military expert in special operations, precision and adaptability are key. "
          f"With a mission success rate of {mission_success_rate:.2f}%, every detail matters.")

    print(f"Over {enemy_engagements} engagements, experience has proven that strategy "
          f"and stealth ({stealth_factor} logarithmic factor) dictate the outcome.")

    print("Whether it’s direct action, reconnaissance, or unconventional warfare, success "
          "depends on training, intelligence, and split-second decision-making.")

    print("\nMission parameters updated. Stand by for further orders...\n")

    # Small delay to avoid overwhelming the console
    time.sleep(0.01)  
 

[uncle bernard]

4 hours ago, Bigbrog said:

I can't even believe that not only is one person claiming that the cartels could even remotely compete with the US Military, but there are a couple others claiming that too...have you people lost your freaking minds?!?! 

Our US Military could shut down every single cartel operation without even blinking an eye and with zero US casualties.

I love how committed you are to learning absolutely nothing about the last 40 years of US military history lol.

[uncle bernard]

The guys who say the "cartels [or insert any guerilla-type group] couldn't possibly compete with the US military" are usually the same guys who say we need the 2nd amendment to defend against government tyranny lol

[Bigbrog]

1 minute ago, uncle bernard said:

I love how committed you are to learning absolutely nothing about the last 40 years of US military history lol.

Prove anything I said as being wrong.  Here's a hint, you can't!  My statements have nothing to do with what has happened in the past, versus other terrorist organizations, etc.  

I'll say it again, our US Military could shut down every single known cartel operation without even blinking an eye and with zero US (I am adding this for clarification) military casualty.  Prove that incorrect...I'll wait for another comment with zero facts to back it up...

[Bigbrog]

2 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

The guys who say the "cartels [or insert any guerilla-type group] couldn't possibly compete with the US military" are usually the same guys who say we need the 2nd amendment to defend against government tyranny lol

The guys who say things like this are the same ones who support terrorist organizations lol

[uncle bernard]

Just now, Bigbrog said:

Prove anything I said as being wrong.  Here's a hint, you can't!  My statements have nothing to do with what has happened in the past, versus other terrorist organizations, etc.  

I'll say it again, our US Military could shut down every single known cartel operation without even blinking an eye and with zero US (I am adding this for clarification) military casualty.  Prove that incorrect...I'll wait for another comment with zero facts to back it up...

You're making an unfalsifiable claim. Can you prove to me I'm wrong?

What we can do is look at other similar examples from history. Did we wipe out the taliban instantly with no casualties? Al qaeda? ISIS? etc...

[Caveira]

45 minutes ago, Bigbrog said:

The guys who say things like this are the same ones who support terrorist organizations lol

I mean to point it out.  He literally said he supports and Would join a terrorist organization.    

[uncle bernard]

6 minutes ago, Caveira said:

I mean to point it out.  He literally said he supports and Would join a terrorist organization.    

lmao what?

[Caveira]

13 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

lmao what?

You weren’t the guy who said he would join Hamas?   This again ?

[wrestlingguy]

2 minutes ago, Caveira said:

You weren’t the guy who said he would join Hamas?   This again ?

I think that was @red viking

[Caveira]

2 minutes ago, wrestlingguy said:

I think that was @red viking

Well I owe an apology to @uncle bernard then.  My apologies sir.   Thanks for pointing that out.  

Edited Wednesday at 09:00 PM by Caveira

[mspart]

If the US military were able to conduct a real war, the cartels wouldn't stand a chance.   But that is not the lesson from the last 40 years as Mr UB likes to say.  

mspart

[Offthemat]

1 hour ago, mspart said:

If the US military were able to conduct a real war, the cartels wouldn't stand a chance.   But that is not the lesson from the last 40 years as Mr UB likes to say.  

mspart

You would likely see very different rules of engagement should Trump ever send troops on a mission. 

[Tripnsweep]

23 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

You would likely see very different rules of engagement should Trump ever send troops on a mission. 

No you wouldn't. 

[mspart]

6 minutes ago, Tripnsweep said:

No you wouldn't. 

I think I understand the reasoning that Trump would use different rules of engagement.   Why do you think he wouldn't?

mspart

[Offthemat]

He changed the RoE in Syria that allowed us to wipe out ISIS. 
 

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/raqqa-victory-means-trump-defeated-isis-in-months-after-years-of-excuses-from-obama/

[billyhoyle]

4 hours ago, mspart said:

If the US military were able to conduct a real war, the cartels wouldn't stand a chance.   But that is not the lesson from the last 40 years as Mr UB likes to say.  

mspart