Why designating cartels as terrorist organizations or using the military to go after them in Mexico will fail

[Tripnsweep]

First of all the title says it all. This is beyond stupid and ill conceived. 

Designating them terrorist organizations doesn't really do anything. It doesn't change how the Mexican authorities deal with them. The other problem is exactly what level of involvement would make somebody a member of the cartel? They are usually on pretty well compartmentalized, and use independent contractors to handle certain aspects of their business. Is the guy who handles transportation but nothing else a terrorist? There's no clear answer. 

The other problem is that if there is direct military action taken against them in Mexico, it isn't going to go the way people think. The cartels aren't stupid, they have military equipment and weapons. A fair number were also special forces in either the Mexican military or in other foreign armed forces. I'm not saying they're at the same level as the US as far as special forces training, but it wouldn't be as one sided as you might think. 

Even if the US succeeded in wiping out a good number of them, the guys who actually run the cartels and hold power are mostly insulated or live in places that any direct assault would be asking for something bad to happen. Guys like El Chapo are mid to upper level management. Even if they took guys out at that level, there's going to be guys who take their place. But taking out the top guys is next to impossible. But even if that succeeded, there's still going to be someone who replaced them.

So what should be done? Stopping the idiotic and wasteful "war on drugs". It has been an abject failure. If drug addiction was designated as a public health issue and treated as such, we would actually save money, decriminalization of small amounts, and redirect law enforcement to focus only on large scale trafficking, wholesalers, etc. We would save so much by doing that. Less people in prison, more money for drug counseling and in/outpatient treatment, and less barriers to being able to get your life back on track by not having a felony for possession on your record. 

But none of that is particularly exciting or doesn't sound like you'd be punishing drug addicts or people you don't like. 

[okokzach]

I think you're being too generous in assuming there is a plan to accomplish something here. It's just to make a show of something, just like the wall, to hype up the idiotic base of supporters, while they award themselves and their friends with massive tax cuts and government contracts

[WrestlingRasta]

But the real question is, do you know a guy……? 

[uncle bernard]

1 hour ago, okokzach said:

I think you're being too generous in assuming there is a plan to accomplish something here. It's just to make a show of something, just like the wall, to hype up the idiotic base of supporters, while they award themselves and their friends with massive tax cuts and government contracts

This applies to 90% of everything he does. He understands that he only needs to scratch the itch rhetorically. What actually happens materially doesn't matter to his supporters.

[PortaJohn]

2 hours ago, Tripnsweep said:

So what should be done? Stopping the idiotic and wasteful "war on drugs". It has been an abject failure. If drug addiction was designated as a public health issue and treated as such, we would actually save money, decriminalization of small amounts, and redirect law enforcement to focus only on large scale trafficking, wholesalers, etc. We would save so much by doing that. Less people in prison, more money for drug counseling and in/outpatient treatment, and less barriers to being able to get your life back on track by not having a felony for possession on your record. 

From most accounts hasn't the decriminalization of drugs been an utter failure in Oregon? 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

2 hours ago, Tripnsweep said:

 

The other problem is that if there is direct military action taken against them in Mexico, it isn't going to go the way people think. The cartels aren't stupid, they have military equipment and weapons. A fair number were also special forces in either the Mexican military or in other foreign armed forces. I'm not saying they're at the same level as the US as far as special forces training, but it wouldn't be as one sided as you might think. 

 

I'm not sure how I feel about action against the cartels.  I will leave that to people who are much more well-versed on this stuff than me.

This bolded section seems laughable.  Absolutely laughable.

Basically by being a a huge part of the Mexican economy, they are highly visible.  I seems very unlikely this could turn into much of a guerilla conflict, which has been the only type of conflict that we have struggled with in the past 60 years.

If they decide to hide in the mountains or jungles, then there could be problems... but that would make it difficult for them to make money off their illegal activities.

At least that is how it seems to me...

[Offthemat]

Our own Bagdad Bob. 

[Tripnsweep]

3 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

I'm not sure how I feel about action against the cartels.  I will leave that to people who are much more well-versed on this stuff than me.

This bolded section seems laughable.  Absolutely laughable.

Basically by being a a huge part of the Mexican economy, they are highly visible.  I seems very unlikely this could turn into much of a guerilla conflict, which has been the only type of conflict that we have struggled with in the past 60 years.

If they decide to hide in the mountains or jungles, then there could be problems... but that would make it difficult for them to make money off their illegal activities.

At least that is how it seems to me...

The idea of our special forces sweeping in and routing them won't happen. These guys have intelligence, not terribly sophisticated, but they will know what is coming and if we send our guys in there, we're going to be surprised by how many of our own get killed. 

The cartels aren't stupid. They have their own soldiers, they have the money to hire good people and to buy weapons that are a step above what most regular soldiers carry. 

And if the US did manage to push them into the jungles and mountains, then they'd have a different problem. Because the cartels would just operate from there. It would be a lot slower but they'd still do it. 

[mspart]

4 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

From most accounts hasn't the decriminalization of drugs been an utter failure in Oregon? 

And in Seattle.  Thousands dead from decriminalization. 

mspart

[Bigbrog]

1 hour ago, Tripnsweep said:

The idea of our special forces sweeping in and routing them won't happen. These guys have intelligence, not terribly sophisticated, but they will know what is coming and if we send our guys in there, we're going to be surprised by how many of our own get killed. 

The cartels aren't stupid. They have their own soldiers, they have the money to hire good people and to buy weapons that are a step above what most regular soldiers carry. 

And if the US did manage to push them into the jungles and mountains, then they'd have a different problem. Because the cartels would just operate from there. It would be a lot slower but they'd still do it. 

  Seriously...you think our Special Forces couldn't sweep and in and take out specific targets...how freakin delusional (or is it unintelligent) are you??  Oh wait...you have proven that you are over and over again.

I know you won't be able to, but I'll humor myself and ask...please provide any sort of evidence to back up the second bolded claim...heck, even just explain what weapons you speak of that they are going to have over what US Special Forces are going to have...heck I'll even say what US forces have ("weapons that are a step above what most regular soldiers carry")??

[Le duke]

  Seriously...you think our Special Forces couldn't sweep and in and take out specific targets...how freakin delusional (or is it unintelligent) are you??  Oh wait...you have proven that you are over and over again.
I know you won't be able to, but I'll humor myself and ask...please provide any sort of evidence to back up the second bolded claim...heck, even just explain what weapons you speak of that they are going to have over what US Special Forces are going to have...heck I'll even say what US forces have ("weapons that are a step above what most regular soldiers carry")??

They could “take out specific targets”, yes.

They would also face significant opposition, better armed, and with better intelligence services at their disposal, than any adversary we’ve faced in GWOT.

Simply put, there would be a cost, and it would be paid in US military blood.


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[Offthemat]

We should just sell them some pagers.