Hear me out Nebraska 15-0 at the break

[Truzzcat]

I know the likelihood of this is all but zero, however I was not quite aware of how competitive this dual could be at least on the mat through 157. I expect Penn state to win the majority of the matches, but I do think Nebraska could very much win any of the 5.

[ionel]

2 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I know the likelihood of this is all but zero, however I was not quite aware of how competitive this dual could be at least on the mat through 157. I expect Penn state to win the majority of the matches, but I do think Nebraska could very much win any of the 5.

... and yet the thread title ... 

[Truzzcat]

Just now, ionel said:

... and yet the thread title ... 

rage bait!

[ionel]

42 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Disappointment is my stock in trade

 

3 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

rage bait!

... or you and Wkn are trading in the same market? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

25 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I know the likelihood of this is all but zero, however I was not quite aware of how competitive this dual could be at least on the mat through 157. I expect Penn state to win the majority of the matches, but I do think Nebraska could very much win any of the 5.

No doubt.

125 - Smith has a higher rank than Lilledahl and 125 tends to be pretty chaotic during the season. Smith is slightly (?) favored at home

133 - Davis has to be the favorite over the 5 loss Van Dee, but...

141 - Hardy v Bartlett #6 v #3 feels likely a one TD match. Depends on who gets the one

149 - Lovett v Van Ness #4 vs #2 has to be the most anticipated of the 5. Expect more scoring here. And while Lovett's only lose this year is in SV to the defending champ, he did get smoked by Kasak last year.

157 - Taylor v Kasak #5 v #3 another two spot gap. Certainly could go either way, though Kasak is favored.

I am going to say PSU takes 3 of 5, but 5-0 Nebraska is remotely possible.

Edited 14 hours ago by Wrestleknownothing

[Pinnacle]

18 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I know the likelihood of this is all but zero, however I was not quite aware of how competitive this dual could be at least on the mat through 157. I expect Penn state to win the majority of the matches, but I do think Nebraska could very much win any of the 5.

Too much sugar in your diet on this one, Truzzcat.

[Pinnacle]

Caleb Smith is the bigger 125 and can match Lightening Luke's speed, so physical advantage to Smith. Luke has mad arsenal of attacks. Toss up.

Got to like Braeden Davis over Van Dee. As someone else noted, Van Dee has some L's already, so he can drop this one to Davis.

Hardy is one of the few current NCAA wrestlers with a win over Bartlett. This could be low scoring and still have the most action of all 5 front side matches. Toss up.

Van Ness power and pressure vs Lovett slickness and top game. I think Van Ness is a beast this year, so advantage SVN.

Kasak vs Taylor. Kasak is real good on top. Taylor is super quick. Could be a drag to a go behind one TD type of match. Toss up.

 

[666]

30 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I know the likelihood of this is all but zero, however I was not quite aware of how competitive this dual could be at least on the mat through 157. I expect Penn state to win the majority of the matches, but I do think Nebraska could very much win any of the 5.

I want some of what you are smoking.  I see PSU going 4-1 in those matches. 

[1032004]

A better question might be what’s the over under on how many of those Nebraska wins?  I feel like at 0.5 more people take Nebraska but at 1.5 more people probably take PSU

[Truzzcat]

Im not sure why I feel like Van dee gets this one against Davis. I like that he kind of forces exchanges to happen. A lot of guys allow Davis to dictate where the match goes. Now if he can't create good opportunities against Davis which is possible it could lead to bad shot entries and easy scores for Davis but I thought Van dee looked really good against Farber and Wells in his last two and does have the win over Ragusin who when healthy I would probably pick over Davis.

[Hammerlock3]

its definitely possible

[Wrestleknownothing]

If I were to order the outcomes from most likely to least likely I would go:

PSU 3 - Neb 2 = ~40%

PSU 4 - Neb 1 = ~35%

PSU 5 - Neb 0 = ~20%

PSU 2 - Neb 3 = ~4%

PSU 1 - Neb 4 = ~1%

PSU 0 - Neb 5 = ~0.1%

So, I'm sayin' there's a chance.

[Hammerlock3]

13 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If I were to order the outcomes from most likely to least likely I would go:

PSU 3 - Neb 2 = ~40%

PSU 4 - Neb 1 = ~35%

PSU 5 - Neb 0 = ~20%

PSU 2 - Neb 3 = ~4%

PSU 1 - Neb 4 = ~1%

PSU 0 - Neb 5 = ~0.1%

So, I'm sayin' there's a chance.

gotta ask for the receipts on these percentages....

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

gotta ask for the receipts on these percentages....

[666]

22 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If I were to order the outcomes from most likely to least likely I would go:

PSU 3 - Neb 2 = ~40%

PSU 4 - Neb 1 = ~35%

PSU 5 - Neb 0 = ~20%

PSU 2 - Neb 3 = ~4%

PSU 1 - Neb 4 = ~1%

PSU 0 - Neb 5 = ~0.1%

So, I'm sayin' there's a chance.

 

[Dogbone]

 

4 hours ago, 1032004 said:

A better question might be what’s the over under on how many of those Nebraska wins?  I feel like at 0.5 more people take Nebraska but at 1.5 more people probably take PSU

Yep, I think the correct line would be O/U 1 win.

Okay, lets say the ~0.1% happens and Nebraska is up 15-0.   How much will PSU win by ? My guess is would end 21-15 PSU.

[ionel]

5 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I know the likelihood of this ...

I'll bet 100M CB that its not 15-0 or better NE at the break.  Of course if you'd rather a sig bet, that would be fine. 

[BruceyB]

5 hours ago, 1032004 said:

A better question might be what’s the over under on how many of those Nebraska wins?  I feel like at 0.5 more people take Nebraska but at 1.5 more people probably take PSU

I'd take Nebraska and over 1.5

125 is hard to predict because we haven't seen Lilledahl against any ranked opponents outside of Seymour, and Caleb Smith is a bit of a wildcard with his consistency. But this match is toss-up and certainly winnable for Nebraska.

133 Davis is the favorite, but his only ranked match at 133 was a 1-0 win where Bailey chose neutral when he was down 1 in the third. Van Dee is 2-0 against Ragusin, and just beat a tough Tyler Wells, he has the potential to pull an upset.

141 It's crazy that these guys have only wrestled twice. In 2023 IIRC Hardy won a scramble where Beau ended up on his back to secure a 7-2 win. Last year, Bartlett won a 9-6 match. I would guess that Hardy will put the match in some scrambles that will determine the winner. I wouldn't say Beau is a significant favorite in this matchup.

149 SVN has been super dominant this season, but he did get outwrestled in the first period against Jordan Williams before bullying him to his back for the pin in the second, and that is his only notable matchup so far this season, excluding his demolishing of a now known, injured Ty Watters at the All-Star. I would probably lean towards Van Ness because of his power/arsenal on his feet, but it's another winnable match-up for Nebraska.

157 This will be the toughest opponent that Kasak has wrestled at 157 and I would call it a toss-up. 

2 toss-ups and 3 other matches that should be competitive, I'll take Nebraska getting two.

Tbh, I'm just joining Truzz and talking myself into believing these are all winnable matches for Nebraska. Penn State could very well win them all and we'll have another 10-0 shutout for the nits.

[Caveira]

6 hours ago, 666 said:

 

What about this makes wkn look dumb ?    I’m not seeing it 

[ionel]

16 minutes ago, Caveira said:

What about this makes wkn look dumb ?    I’m not seeing it 

Did you watch the video? 

[Caveira]

2 minutes ago, ionel said:

Did you watch the video? 

Hmmmm.  I saw the movie.   Not in a place I can watch the vid though.  Paraphrase?   Do I owe 666 an apology or what?   
 

damnit.   (Edit).  Is it the are you saying there is a chance scene.   If so.  Sorry 666

Edited 7 hours ago by Caveira

[ionel]

1 minute ago, Caveira said:

Hmmmm.  I saw the movie.   Not in a place I can watch the vid though.  Paraphrase?   Do I owe 666 an apology or what?   

there's a chance

[PortaJohn]

1 hour ago, BruceyB said:

133 Davis is the favorite, but his only ranked match at 133 was a 1-0 win where Bailey chose neutral when he was down 1 in the third. Van Dee is 2-0 against Ragusin, and just beat a tough Tyler Wells, he has the potential to pull an upset.

Davis took a loss to Crookham in the Lehigh dual

[Caveira]

14 minutes ago, ionel said:

there's a chance

So I’ll say twice.  Apologies 666 

bazoom 

[wjd]

Happy hour started early for someone in Nebraska.