Who Is The Greatest 3-Timer Of The Wrestlestat Era - Gable Steveson Edition

[Wrestleknownothing]

I created this graphic aboutr a year ago, but figured it was time to up date it for the presumption that Gable Steveson would become a three timer.

Since I used wrestlestat data for things like the average time for a techfall or pinfall and the rank of defeated wrestlers, I limited the analysis to 2014 - present.

With the exception of Alex Dieringer, whose career began in 2013. For him I dug around to get win and bonus totals, but used the 2014 - 2016 wrestlestat data for time and rank. So, perhaps those are a little better than they should be.

For Steveson I assumed he would run the table, but maintain his historic bonus rates and finish with 23.5 NCAA points (he had 24.5 and 22.5 in his two title years).

 

Reducing that number salad to rankings per category we can get a better idea of relative career ranks.

Using these metrics Steveson ranks third best, behind Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal, but just ahead of Zain Retherford.

Of course this ignores gold medals won while still having college eligibility remaining. Reasonable minds might not want to do that.

[headshuck]

I appreciate the work but it’s just numbers. Spencer Lee will go down in history as one of the worst 3-timers in history with this approach.

But to play along, you could add more data, say a 1st period tech fall count. Points given up? Bonus losses? Hodge award count. Strength of competition?

[BAC]

12 minutes ago, headshuck said:

I appreciate the work but it’s just numbers. Spencer Lee will go down in history as one of the worst 3-timers in history with this approach.

What's wrong with that?  It sounds like you're asking WKN to goose the numbers with in a way that somehow helps Lee so that his ranking matches your perceptions. That's sort of the opposite of a data driven approach.

Who do you think he should be ranked higher than, and why?

[headshuck]

You said it yourself. Perception. If Lee hadn’t melted down and finished wrestling he would probably finish 1,1,1,3 in dominating fashion. Every guy on the list probably has a similar whatif.

Gable hasn’t even wrestled his final season so we could revisit this in March, no? Kerk could beat him.

[JeanGuy]

35 minutes ago, headshuck said:

You said it yourself. Perception. If Lee hadn’t melted down and finished wrestling he would probably finish 1,1,1,3 in dominating fashion. Every guy on the list probably has a similar whatif.

Gable hasn’t even wrestled his final season so we could revisit this in March, no? Kerk could beat him.

I can't count the Hodge as a real factor. It is so subjective. Is Jason Nolf a lesser wrestler because he never won a Hodge?

It is interesting looking at the data.

I am not sure where I would rank Lee using my own eye test. As dominant as he was, he is also a guy that was caught staring at the lights multiple times.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, headshuck said:

I appreciate the work but it’s just numbers. Spencer Lee will go down in history as one of the worst 3-timers in history with this approach.

But to play along, you could add more data, say a 1st period tech fall count. Points given up? Bonus losses? Hodge award count. Strength of competition?

The first period TF is already captured by the average time to tech fall.

Bonus losses would hurt Spencer Lee the most.

Strength of competition is already captured by the average rank stats.

And I am pretty sure the Spencer Lee / Gable Steveson Hodge tie was as a direct result of Bo Nickal winning the Hodge over Jason Nolf.

[wrestle87]

3 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I created this graphic aboutr a year ago, but figured it was time to up date it for the presumption that Gable Steveson would become a three timer.

Since I used wrestlestat data for things like the average time for a techfall or pinfall and the rank of defeated wrestlers, I limited the analysis to 2014 - present.

With the exception of Alex Dieringer, whose career began in 2013. For him I dug around to get win and bonus totals, but used the 2014 - 2016 wrestlestat data for time and rank. So, perhaps those are a little better than they should be.

For Steveson I assumed he would run the table, but maintain his historic bonus rates and finish with 23.5 NCAA points (he had 24.5 and 22.5 in his two title years).

 

Reducing that number salad to rankings per category we can get a better idea of relative career ranks.

Using these metrics Steveson ranks third best, behind Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal, but just ahead of Zain Retherford.

Of course this ignores gold medals won while still having college eligibility remaining. Reasonable minds might not want to do that.

I'd just like to say, not everyone will appreciate the level of excel-ing that's going on here.  But I see you.  Much respect for your sheet enthusiasm.

[headshuck]

The first period TF is already captured by the average time to tech fall.
Bonus losses would hurt Spencer Lee the most.
Strength of competition is already captured by the average rank stats.
And I am pretty sure the Spencer Lee / Gable Steveson Hodge tie was as a direct result of Bo Nickal winning the Hodge over Jason Nolf.

Well I guess you pretty much have the data covered. I’d still take Gable to war with me though. I’d get matching tattoos.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, headshuck said:

Well I guess you pretty much have the data covered. I’d still take Gable to war with me though. I’d get matching tattoos.

Nothing wrong with that.

[Idaho]

 When a wrestler takes a redshirt is a factor. Gable’s losses were as a true freshman having not taken a redshirt. Nolf and Nickal had redshirt true freshman losses that are not part of this data. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Idaho

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Idaho said:

 When a wrestler takes a redshirt is a factor. Gable’s losses were as a true freshman having not taken a redshirt. Nolf and Nickal had redshirt true freshman losses that are not part of this data. 

Agreed. On the flipside, if Steveson wins this year, as I have assumed, he will do it in his seventh year out of high school where Nolf and Nickal did it in their fifth year out of high school. At this level it is safe to assume that the athletic peak occurs later. So do you penalize Steveson for winning at an older age?

[headshuck]

Sure. Are you going to add the redshirt losses in the model? Or did Idaho get that wrong?

[scourge165]

1 hour ago, Idaho said:

 When a wrestler takes a redshirt is a factor. Gable’s losses were as a true freshman having not taken a redshirt. Nolf and Nickal had redshirt true freshman losses that are not part of this data. 

Good point. I wonder if Cael wins it at a True Freshmen? I'd guess he'd have been at 177. Does he beat Mitch Clark? Does he get to him?

He's not an undefeated 4X Champ. He's "just another 4X Champ!" I'm kidding obviously, 4 is 4, but...that really would take away from Cael's legacy. It's the 159-0 that's elevates what he did. If he's 158-1...

It's all just shades of greatness at that point.