2024 UWW Senior World Championships...

[BigRedFan]

33 minutes ago, juniorvarsity said:

I've been thinking about this since trials - what do we think of Vito's defense. He is so so good offensively. And he keeps people away from his legs with his distance and movement. His tie ups are in and out. He doesn't really hang on. Do we see him defending shots very often?

Not often, because he is so quick that it is very difficult to get to his legs before he leaps out of the way.

[Irani]

In case anyone care, here are the team standings

 

[Irani]

1 hour ago, AZSC160 said:

What was up with Ghasempour not shaking Taylor’s hand? Did he do something to upset him or was he just being a sore loser? Anti-American sentiment?

I have no idea, but I think you can rule out anti-American sentiment based on how they hugged each other at the beginning of the match.

I did see Ghassempour complain to the referee about something when the first half ended, pointing to DT, but they shook hands again at the beginning of the second period.

[wrestlingshoe]

I'm guess it was just difficult to swallow, no medal. Looked like DT had a nice exchange with the coach afterwards. If you lined the final six wrestlers up in order of actual ability, it would be Sad, DT, Ghas, then the others.  Wish they would go back to the old top 3 double elim for worlds. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

3 hours ago, fishbane said:

I don't think so regarding 145.  

I don't know if there is an age difference between 57kg and the other weights that it is due to accumulated wear and tear/loss of speed and athleticism any more than at heavier weights or that there is no weight class below it.  It would be interesting to look and see if there was a significant change in the average age of competitors at 57kg/55kg back when there were lower weights like 52kg and 48kg compared with now that it's the lowest weight.

First of all... Cejudo is rumored to be seeking a fight at 145.

Next, I would suggest not just looking at the "average age" of 57 and 61 kg guys.  I would suggest looking at dominance over an extended period... which is where I started this conversation.  How many guys at 57 and 61 have medalled consistently over 2+ quads?  Not a lot.  But you see it quite a bit with big guys.  Saduleev, Snyder, Taylor, Geno, Taha, Baumgartner, Medved, Karelin, etc, etc, etc.  Which of the light guys consistently put it all together for multiple quads? Jordanov?  Not Heiguchi... serious issues in 2021 for instance.  Mirrors other combat sports with guys like Jones, Fury, Couture, etc.in UFC.

[BAC]

1 hour ago, Irani said:

I have no idea, but I think you can rule out anti-American sentiment based on how they hugged each other at the beginning of the match.

I did see Ghassempour complain to the referee about something when the first half ended, pointing to DT, but they shook hands again at the beginning of the second period.

My take was that Ghasempour misinterpreted what Taylor was doing when he went over to sort of yank him up with 2 seconds left.  The camera cut off the interaction, but I think Ghas took it as "get your a** back in the middle," when actually it was just an attempt to give a hand which came off a bit awkward with all of Taylor's emotion.  Whatever, these guys are champions, and I don't see any disrespect.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 hour ago, BAC said:

My take was that Ghasempour misinterpreted what Taylor was doing when he went over to sort of yank him up with 2 seconds left.  The camera cut off the interaction, but I think Ghas took it as "get your a** back in the middle," when actually it was just an attempt to give a hand which came off a bit awkward with all of Taylor's emotion.  Whatever, these guys are champions, and I don't see any disrespect.

Is it possible that DT thought the match was actually completed/

I enjoyed his moment with the Iranian coach.

[Irani]

Ono asks to Swap singlet with DT

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1257132718761185?fs=e&mibextid=0NULKw&fs=e&s=TIeQ9V

[D3 for LU]

10 hours ago, Irani said:

Ono asks to Swap singlet with DT

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1257132718761185?fs=e&mibextid=0NULKw&fs=e&s=TIeQ9V

That is definitely, one COOL gesture from both of them... there should be MORE moments like that!

D3

[fishbane]

17 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

First of all... Cejudo is rumored to be seeking a fight at 145.

Interesting, but I'm not sure what that has to do with the price of tea in China.

17 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Next, I would suggest not just looking at the "average age" of 57 and 61 kg guys.  I would suggest looking at dominance over an extended period... which is where I started this conversation.  How many guys at 57 and 61 have medalled consistently over 2+ quads?  Not a lot.  But you see it quite a bit with big guys.  Saduleev, Snyder, Taylor, Geno, Taha, Baumgartner, Medved, Karelin, etc, etc, etc.  Which of the light guys consistently put it all together for multiple quads? Jordanov? 

Recently there have been more dominant wrestlers at the heavier weights, but there are plenty of counter examples.  

Ebrahim Javadi - 4x champo at 48kg

Vladimir Yumin - 5x champ at 57kg/62kg

Anatoly Beloglasov - 4x champ 48/52/57kg

Yuji Takada - 5x champ at 52kg

Sergey Kornilayev - 4x champ at 48kg

Sergei  Beloglazov - 8x champ at 57/62kg

Valentine Yordanov - 8x champ at 52kg

John Smith - 6x champ at 62kg

Elbrus Tedeyev - 4x champ at 62/63kg

Mavlet Batirov - 3x champ including Olympic champ at 55/60kg

Besik Kudukhov - 4x champ at 55/60kg

In Greco roman there are plenty of recent examples

Hamid Sourian won 7 titles at 55/59kg between 2005 and 2014.

Armen Nazaryan won 5 titles at 52/55/60kg.  His first world medal came in 1993 and his last in 2005.

Eldaniz Azizli won 4 world titles at 55kg between 2018 and 2024.  

The 60kg Olympic champ Kenichiro Fumita has 3 world titles with his first coming in 2017.

If you look at women's freestyle, the most successful wrestlers have been at the lighter weights under 60kg.  But I think you've kind of moved the goalposts to dominance over an extended period/multiple quads.  Where I came into this discussion people were discussing who would be on the team in 2028 and some said Spencer Lee  would be 29 which is old for a lightweight. 

17 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Not Heiguchi... serious issues in 2021 for instance. 

He won a a silver in 2016 at 57kg at 20 years old.  What happened in 2020/2021? I thought he had beaten Otoguro and was going to the rep at 65kg.  Did he miss weight or fail to qualify at the Asia qualifier and get replaced or something?  Either way he won gold at 57kg 8 years after his initial silver, so that's multiple quads.

18 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Mirrors other combat sports with guys like Jones, Fury, Couture, etc.in UFC.

Not really.  Mighty Mouse was undefeated at Flyweight until losing that split decision to Cejudo. His 11 consecutive title defenses are the most in UFC history.  Heavyweight has had particularly high turnover at the top in the UFC.  It seems like whenever a guy looks set to dominate he takes a loss - Brock Lesnar, Cain Velazquez, Miocic, etc.  No fighter has more than 3 consecutive defenses at the division. Three is the fewest consecutive defenses at any division.t  The conventional wisdom I hear to explain thi is that heavyweights have more power and one punch can change the fight which adds randomness not seen at the lower weights.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

29 minutes ago, fishbane said:

29 minutes ago, fishbane said:

 

If you look at women's freestyle, the most successful wrestlers have been at the lighter weights under 60kg.

 

But I think you've kind of moved the goalposts to dominance over an extended period/multiple quads.

 

What does women's freestyle have to do with the price of tea anywhere?

I moved the goalposts? I said Vito was not "young" and questioned his ability to be our guy for the entire 2028 quad.  That was literally the original discussion.

Also, how many of your "dominant lightweights" had to make weight the day of competition?

And how OLD is Demtrious Johnson?

Edited November 1 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[fishbane]

4 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

I moved the goalposts? I said Vito was not "young" and questioned his ability to be our guy for the entire 2028 quad.  That was literally the original discussion.

Arujau and Lee are close to the same age and will both be 29 at the next Olympics.  Neither would be particularly young for a world champ.  I suspect the average age for a world champ is probably 26 with a standard deviation of around 3.  My concerns with them making the next Olympic team or next three world teams has less to do with their age.  For Lee it would be injury concerns.  He's torn 3 ACLs that we know of.  For Arujau don't think he can make 57kg.  If he stays at 61kg I think he can make the next three teams, but he may well move up in preparation for 2028.  If so it could take some time for him to adjust and he may never make the team as Diakomihalis has had his number in the past. 

This same topic came up after the Olympics and I had made this table of the oldest World/Olympics men's freestyle champions since the breakup of the USSR.  You'll notice that the oldest champions have been at 52-61kg. 

5 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

What does women's freestyle have to do with the price of tea anywhere?

...

Also, how many of your "dominant lightweights" had to make weight the day of competition?

I don't know, but I am sure that more had weigh ins on the day of competition than the MMA fighters you keep bringing up.  Also as I understand it, women have the same weigh in schedule as men in freestyle wrestling so I'd expect that to be perhaps more relevant to the discussion at hand.  Especially if you consider weigh in schedule to be a significant factor.  If there were a significant difference in the distribution of ages of women and men wrestling at the world championships that would be an interesting fact.  What could be the underlying cause?

I've calculated the average age of the 55/57, 60/61, 96/97, and 120/125kg world champs since 2002 inclusive.  It is a little lower for 57kg.  However the last 4 world champs at 57kg have been some of the oldest in the evaluation period at 27.4, 29.2, 27.5, and 28.6 years.

6 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

And how OLD is Demtrious Johnson?

He is 38.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

20 hours ago, fishbane said:

Arujau and Lee are close to the same age and will both be 29 at the next Olympics.  Neither would be particularly young for a world champ.  I suspect the average age for a world champ is probably 26 with a standard deviation of around 3.  My concerns with them making the next Olympic team or next three world teams has less to do with their age.  For Lee it would be injury concerns.  He's torn 3 ACLs that we know of.  For Arujau don't think he can make 57kg.  If he stays at 61kg I think he can make the next three teams, but he may well move up in preparation for 2028.  If so it could take some time for him to adjust and he may never make the team as Diakomihalis has had his number in the past. 

This same topic came up after the Olympics and I had made this table of the oldest World/Olympics men's freestyle champions since the breakup of the USSR.  You'll notice that the oldest champions have been at 52-61kg. 

I don't know, but I am sure that more had weigh ins on the day of competition than the MMA fighters you keep bringing up.  Also as I understand it, women have the same weigh in schedule as men in freestyle wrestling so I'd expect that to be perhaps more relevant to the discussion at hand.  Especially if you consider weigh in schedule to be a significant factor.  If there were a significant difference in the distribution of ages of women and men wrestling at the world championships that would be an interesting fact.  What could be the underlying cause?

I've calculated the average age of the 55/57, 60/61, 96/97, and 120/125kg world champs since 2002 inclusive.  It is a little lower for 57kg.  However the last 4 world champs at 57kg have been some of the oldest in the evaluation period at 27.4, 29.2, 27.5, and 28.6 years.

He is 38.

Women are irrelevant in this discussion because of hormonal/cultural differences.  They are fundamentally different from men for a variety of reasons. They are ready to compete at the world level at younger ages, and they may retire sooner for reproductive/cultural issues.  Apples and oranges.

MMA (and boxing) have been brought up because guys tend to stay around longer in the upper weights.  Amazing how it seems to be the same throughout combat sports.

Edited November 2 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[GrandOlm]

On 11/1/2024 at 12:38 PM, fishbane said:

Interesting, but I'm not sure what that has to do with the price of tea in China.

Recently there have been more dominant wrestlers at the heavier weights, but there are plenty of counter examples.  

Ebrahim Javadi - 4x champo at 48kg

Vladimir Yumin - 5x champ at 57kg/62kg

Anatoly Beloglasov - 4x champ 48/52/57kg

Yuji Takada - 5x champ at 52kg

Sergey Kornilayev - 4x champ at 48kg

Sergei  Beloglazov - 8x champ at 57/62kg

Valentine Yordanov - 8x champ at 52kg

John Smith - 6x champ at 62kg

Elbrus Tedeyev - 4x champ at 62/63kg

Mavlet Batirov - 3x champ including Olympic champ at 55/60kg

Besik Kudukhov - 4x champ at 55/60kg

In Greco roman there are plenty of recent examples

Hamid Sourian won 7 titles at 55/59kg between 2005 and 2014.

Armen Nazaryan won 5 titles at 52/55/60kg.  His first world medal came in 1993 and his last in 2005.

Eldaniz Azizli won 4 world titles at 55kg between 2018 and 2024.  

The 60kg Olympic champ Kenichiro Fumita has 3 world titles with his first coming in 2017.

Of the Greco Roman Wrestlers who have won more than 5 world level golds, only one was a light weight (Sourian). And the one light weight was the least dominant of that group by far. He never went more than a year or two without taking a loss. 

I checked the pre WW2 era (it get's more complicated because European championships were the real world championships while some of the "World Champions" were bogus with the host country sweeping the medals).  Carl Westergren was the stand out at the Olympics (eventually an upper weight), with Rudolf the runner up with 2x gold 1x sliver (an upper weight as well).

When looking at the Euros (de facto world championships of that time). Ivar Johansson (middle weight 79 kg)  and Kustaa (a light weight) were the standout medalists, but I think Olympics should be weighted heavier in that era. Travel and just having a day job were real impediments back before WW2. So even if the Euros were the strongest tournament in a given year they wouldn't have been important enough for a wrestler like Westergren to attend. a lot of the time. 

So no, upper eight are notably more dominant and have better longevity in Greco than light weights.

I also wouldn't call someone like Yordanov "dominant". His medals are the entire spectrum of colors. 

[fishbane]

18 hours ago, GrandOlm said:

Of the Greco Roman Wrestlers who have won more than 5 world level golds, only one was a light weight (Sourian). And the one light weight was the least dominant of that group by far. He never went more than a year or two without taking a loss. 

...

So no, upper eight are notably more dominant and have better longevity in Greco than light weights.

The number of wrestler with more than 5 world level golds in greco is only 5.  That's a small number.  You're right that there other 4 are upper eights.  So I think you can say the most dominant greco roman wrestlers have been disproportionately upper weights, but I don't think any stat you gave really leads to the conclusion that upper weights have better longevity.  Certainly outliers that have >5 World titles have good longevity, but a statement like "upper wights have better longevity in Greco than light weights." should be based on something more than a few extreme outliers.  The oldest world champ this year was of course Mijain Lopez, but the second oldest was at the lightest weight class, 55kg.  Furthermore if you expand the field from >5 greco world level titles to all wrestlers with 3 or more greco world level titles the distribution is far more even across weights.

18 hours ago, GrandOlm said:

I also wouldn't call someone like Yordanov "dominant". His medals are the entire spectrum of colors. 

He won 8 world level golds.  If that's not dominant enough you have an insanely high standard.  Pretty much all his piers had off years where they were not the best in the world.  Medved has a world bronze and silver too.  He also didn't win his first world title until he was 24.  Satiev only has gold medals, but DNP two years and did not make the Russian team two other times. Sadulaev has a silver and a 5th.  Fadzaev has a silver (up a weight) and DNPed at the 1996 Olympics.  Beloglasov only got a silver in 1979 and didn't make the Russian team until he was 22.

[fishbane]

On 11/2/2024 at 4:37 PM, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Women are irrelevant in this discussion because of hormonal/cultural differences.  They are fundamentally different from men for a variety of reasons. They are ready to compete at the world level at younger ages, and they may retire sooner for reproductive/cultural issues.  Apples and oranges.

MMA (and boxing) have been brought up because guys tend to stay around longer in the upper weights.  Amazing how it seems to be the same throughout combat sports.

You are picking the things that back your point of view and ignoring things that contradict it.  MMA has weigh in rules that are different.  There are also significant cultural differences at play in MMA.  Not many parents send their elementary school age kids to MMA class.  Athletes get into the sport later than wrestlers.  Winning a world title isn't an annual competition that anyone can enter.  Fighters have to work their way up a ladder fighting maybe a handful of times a year.  It takes years to get to the top.  Just look at how long it has taken Bo Nickal to still not have a meaningful fight. There is also a financial incentive for an MMA fighter to move up in weight that doesn't exist in freestyle wrestling.  None of that stops you from bringing MMA into the discussion.  Women's freestyle doesn't have any of those issues and I don't even know if there is data to back up your MMA claim that "guys tend to stay around longer in the upper weights."

Let's bring it back to the original discussion.  Which was if Spencer Lee and/or Vito Arujau would make the team in 2028.  They are going to be 29 and someone - maybe you - said that was old for 57kg.  Below is the list of our reps at the Olympics and World championships at 55 and 57kg since the weight classed changed in 2002.  Twenty nine is older than average, but far less than 1 standard deviation away.  Out of USA's last 8 men's freestyle Olympians below 60kg half have them have been older than 29. Three others defeated someone that was over 30 years of age in the trials final to make the team.

 

 

[MPhillips]

My piers...

 

[ionel]

42 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

My piers...

 

Was that ^^^ your before pic?

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

 

Let's bring it back to the original discussion.  Which was if Spencer Lee and/or Vito Arujau would make the team in 2028.  

 

 

 

This was my conversation and that was NOT at all what it was.  Please stop twisting things.   It is you who are moving goalposts.

Spencer was never mentioned.

It wasn't about who would make the team in 2028.

It was (Original Statement:) "Vito isn't that young! He is 25.  Does he have another entire cycle of him being the US rep left in him? "

That was the statement.  "ENTIRE cycle." It didn't say 2028 Olympics.  It doesn't mention Lee.  I was looking at Vito's weight and injury issues, as well as declining performance throughout NCAA and Worlds.  He has a bad neck for crying out loud!

Edited November 5 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

20 hours ago, GrandOlm said:

Of the Greco Roman Wrestlers who have won more than 5 world level golds, only one was a light weight (Sourian). And the one light weight was the least dominant of that group by far. He never went more than a year or two without taking a loss. 

So no, upper eight are notably more dominant and have better longevity in Greco than light weights.

I also wouldn't call someone like Yordanov "dominant". His medals are the entire spectrum of colors. 

Thank you.  Guy just won't give up and keeps moving goalposts!  Likely an angry lightweight sticking up for his piers.

[GrandOlm]

On 11/4/2024 at 4:43 PM, fishbane said:

The number of wrestler with more than 5 world level golds in greco is only 5.  That's a small number.  You're right that there other 4 are upper eights.  So I think you can say the most dominant greco roman wrestlers have been disproportionately upper weights, but I don't think any stat you gave really leads to the conclusion that upper weights have better longevity.  Certainly outliers that have >5 World titles have good longevity, but a statement like "upper wights have better longevity in Greco than light weights." should be based on something more than a few extreme outliers.  The oldest world champ this year was of course Mijain Lopez, but the second oldest was at the lightest weight class, 55kg.  Furthermore if you expand the field from >5 greco world level titles to all wrestlers with 3 or more greco world level titles the distribution is far more even across weights.

He won 8 world level golds.  If that's not dominant enough you have an insanely high standard.  Pretty much all his piers had off years where they were not the best in the world.  Medved has a world bronze and silver too.  He also didn't win his first world title until he was 24.  Satiev only has gold medals, but DNP two years and did not make the Russian team two other times. Sadulaev has a silver and a 5th.  Fadzaev has a silver (up a weight) and DNPed at the 1996 Olympics.  Beloglasov only got a silver in 1979 and didn't make the Russian team until he was 22.

Well this is sport ,not public policy. People are most invested in outliers anyway. And two, I'm not doing the research and work to track something like 70 years worth of 3 times medalists and their ages (even if it was very relevant). Too much effort for no real reward.  I don't think 3 world medals signal dominance and longevity anyway, so I disagree with the premise.  

Speaking of oldest olympic champs,  you know who the oldest olympic wrestling champ was before Lopez, Anatoly Roshcilin (at least I think he was unless you can find some older example ). A super heavyweight (what are the odds) who won at 40. 

You can win a lot of medals through a very long career, without being dominant. Kind of like Bruce Buamgertner.

Medved had only two international losses (and two domestic losses to a legend once his career really got going) and went undefeated for his last 7 years. Considering Medved probably only started wrestling when he was drafted to the army at 18 years old, it's not surprising it took him that long for his first medals. It's not like slavs had some ancient traditional link to wresting, Medved wouldn't have encountered wrestling in the 40s/50s in his ancestral village. Yordanov by comparison had about 8 international losses by my count (just judging by his medals, though draws were a thing and we don't have scores).

Saitiev is not an upper weight. Nor is Faedzaev, or Belgalzov.