2024 Olympics last chance qualifier

[CHROMEBIRD]

With OTT in the books and a little over 2 weeks before the final qualifier, how are folks feeling about Spencer and Zain's chances to qualify their weights? Top 3 punch their ticket to Paris. It looks like UWW already has a participants list going, but dunno how accurate it is (e.g., McKenna at 65):

https://uww.org/event/world-og-qualifier-0/participants

Who is Iran's 57kg rep?

[CHROMEBIRD]

Pretty wild to see that India, China, Poland, Bulgaria, and others with zero MFS weights qualified (if I'm looking at the list correctly). Aze with zero qualified in WM.

[Dogbone]

I feel pretty good about both, especially since there is a true 3rd place so the draw isn't as important. I assume true 3rd in internationally just means repechage with the two 3rd place guys wrestling?

If I had to rank, I am little more confident in Spencer but that is because we seem to be snake bit at 65kg and I don't know how big Zain is.  All of the other 70kg guys struggled but he seemed okay when he had to go the 2nd morning off the scale.  So the possibility of a bad cut and USA luck at 65 has me less confident than 57kg but I still think he gets it done. 

[Tripnsweep]

34 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

With OTT in the books and a little over 2 weeks before the final qualifier, how are folks feeling about Spencer and Zain's chances to qualify their weights? Top 3 punch their ticket to Paris. It looks like UWW already has a participants list going, but dunno how accurate it is (e.g., McKenna at 65):

https://uww.org/event/world-og-qualifier-0/participants

Who is Iran's 57kg rep?

Only a few of those guys look like they would be a threat to Lee. The dark horse in that group is North Korea. They usually don't send somebody who isn't good. Also cool to see some less represented countries going, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Hong Kong (I know it isn't a country). 

[PortaJohn]

56 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Who is Iran's 57kg rep?

Here is the list

INDIA - #6 Aman Aman (2022 U23 World gold)

IRAN - Ahmad Mohammadnezhadjavan (2022 U20 World bronze, 2021 U23 World bronze) OR Alireza Sarlak (2021 World silver)

CHINA - #7 Wanhao Zou (2022 World 5th)

TURKIYE - #10 Muhammet Karavus (2021 U20 World silver) OR Suleyman Atli (2019 World silver)

MONGOLIA - Munkh Erdene Batkhuyag (2023 U23 World bronze) OR Zandanbud Zanabazar (2022 World bronze) OR #18 Narankhuu Narmandakh (2022 61 kg World bronze)

NORTH KOREA - #17 Chongsong Han (2023 Asian Games silver)

KAZAKHSTAN - Meirambek Kartbay (2023 World 5th) OR Yerassyl Mukhtaruly (2023 U23 World 5th) OR Rakhat Kalzhan (2023 Asian bronze)

GEORGIA - Roberti Dingashvili (2024 Euro bronze)

GERMANY - Horst Lehr (2021 World bronze)

UKRAINE - Andrey Yatsekno (2017 World bronze)

 

65 kg

MONGOLIA - #4 Tulga Tumur-Ochir    (2021 World silver) OR Tsogbakrakh Tseveensuren (2022 World 9th)

UZBEKISTAN - Umidjon Jalolov (2022 U20 World gold)

ALBANIA - Islam Dudaev (2022 Yarygin bronze)

INDIA - Sujeet Sujeet (2022 U20 World bronze)

BULGARIA - Salim Naim (2023 Euro silver)

BAHRAIN - Alibeg Alibegov (2021 U20 World silver)

FRANCE - Timourovitch Arsamerzouev (2022 U20 World bronze)

TAJIKISTAN - Abdulmazhid Kudiev (2021 Russian Nationals bronze)

UKRAINE - Erik Arushanian (2022 U23 bronze)

GERMANY - Kizhan Clarke (UNC 2022 NCAA finalist)

CANADA - Lachlan McNeil (UNC 2X NCAA All-American)

KAZAKHSTAN - Maiis Aliyev (2022 U20 World 8th)

ARGENTINA - Agustin Destribats (2024 Pan Am silver)

BELARUS - Niurgun Skriabin (2020 Euro silver)

NORTH KOREA - K Kim (2024 Asian Qualifier 5th)

CHINA - Shaohua Yuan (2024 Asian Qualifier 5th)

Edited April 22 by PortaJohn

[Dark Energy]

Won’t happen but if Destribats blocks the US again, oh man.

I feel great about Spencer and Zain.  Limited number of studs I’m seeing in the lists and no super studs.  

[Truzzcat]

I think Aman Aman is the biggest threat at 57 and Ochir at 65 Ochir has a 4-1 win over Mckenna and a 10-3 win over Yianni the same year Yianni took silver as well as two very close losses to Amouzad. Zain can certainly beat him but probably not someone he wants to see shortly off the scale.

Edited April 22 by Truzzcat

[nhs67]

I think Lee has more roadblocks at 57 KG than 65 KG.

Zain has one true roadblock, providing he doesn't get a beast off the scale, he will be fine.  He will only have to weigh in once if he makes the finals (I don't think they wrestle the finals).

Lee on the other hand has a net tonne of landmines he will have to navigate.  Luckily I don't think he cuts much (any) weight to make 57 KG, so he won't have to worry off the scale like Gilman would have.  I also think his skill advantage against everyone in the field will be evident early in matches.  I just hope he can put them away and not trust his tank.  Tilts should work better for points against the international folks, so we'll see.

I am more confident in Retherford due to him being the 2nd best in the field, at worst.  Lee might be the best, but he has many more landmines to navigate.

[nhs67]

To be clear, I am not saying Ochir is better than Zain - Zain has a Worlds Gold.  I am saying Sujeet Sujeet might be better.  He has an extremely high ceiling, but is similarly inconsistent to Johnny D.  It really depends on which one shows up.

[Truzzcat]

15 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I think Lee has more roadblocks at 57 KG than 65 KG.

Zain has one true roadblock, providing he doesn't get a beast off the scale, he will be fine.  He will only have to weigh in once if he makes the finals (I don't think they wrestle the finals).

Lee on the other hand has a net tonne of landmines he will have to navigate.  Luckily I don't think he cuts much (any) weight to make 57 KG, so he won't have to worry off the scale like Gilman would have.  I also think his skill advantage against everyone in the field will be evident early in matches.  I just hope he can put them away and not trust his tank.  Tilts should work better for points against the international folks, so we'll see.

I am more confident in Retherford due to him being the 2nd best in the field, at worst.  Lee might be the best, but he has many more landmines to navigate.

I agree, I just wanted to add I was really impressed with spencer's cardio at trials. He seemed to be able to go all 6 and was actually nose breathing during the break in most of his matches including against Thomas so that is good to see. Aside from Aman and the Iranian rep I would be most concerned with Mongolia for spencer but his trials performance leaves me extremely confident.

[Gantry]

What happened to Bajrang for India?

[MPhillips]

13 minutes ago, Gantry said:

What happened to Bajrang for India?

Age, politics, fame...

[nhs67]

39 minutes ago, Gantry said:

What happened to Bajrang for India?

This...

25 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Age, politics, fame...

A pretty even blend of all three, even if the middle one is what folks want to emphasize.

[wrestle87]

19 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

GERMANY - Kizhan Clarke (UNC 2022 NCAA finalist)

Can somebody explain this one?

[Truzzcat]

Just now, wrestle87 said:

Can somebody explain this one?

Similar situation to Seabass to me. Likely never can win enough in a row to make a team here but can potentially draw his way into a medal (he's considerably better at free than folk).

[wrestle87]

19 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

Here is the list

INDIA - #6 Aman Aman (2022 U23 World gold)

IRAN - Ahmad Mohammadnezhadjavan (2022 U20 World bronze, 2021 U23 World bronze) OR Alireza Sarlak (2021 World silver)

CHINA - #7 Wanhao Zou (2022 World 5th)

TURKIYE - #10 Muhammet Karavus (2021 U20 World silver) OR Suleyman Atli (2019 World silver)

MONGOLIA - Munkh Erdene Batkhuyag (2023 U23 World bronze) OR Zandanbud Zanabazar (2022 World bronze) OR #18 Narankhuu Narmandakh (2022 61 kg World bronze)

NORTH KOREA - #17 Chongsong Han (2023 Asian Games silver)

KAZAKHSTAN - Meirambek Kartbay (2023 World 5th) OR Yerassyl Mukhtaruly (2023 U23 World 5th) OR Rakhat Kalzhan (2023 Asian bronze)

GEORGIA - Roberti Dingashvili (2024 Euro bronze)

GERMANY - Horst Lehr (2021 World bronze)

UKRAINE - Andrey Yatsekno (2017 World bronze)

 

65 kg

MONGOLIA - #4 Tulga Tumur-Ochir    (2021 World silver) OR Tsogbakrakh Tseveensuren (2022 World 9th)

UZBEKISTAN - Umidjon Jalolov (2022 U20 World gold)

ALBANIA - Islam Dudaev (2022 Yarygin bronze)

INDIA - Sujeet Sujeet (2022 U20 World bronze)

BULGARIA - Salim Naim (2023 Euro silver)

BAHRAIN - Alibeg Alibegov (2021 U20 World silver)

FRANCE - Timourovitch Arsamerzouev (2022 U20 World bronze)

TAJIKISTAN - Abdulmazhid Kudiev (2021 Russian Nationals bronze)

UKRAINE - Erik Arushanian (2022 U23 bronze)

GERMANY - Kizhan Clarke (UNC 2022 NCAA finalist)

CANADA - Lachlan McNeil (UNC 2X NCAA All-American)

KAZAKHSTAN - Maiis Aliyev (2022 U20 World 8th)

ARGENTINA - Agustin Destribats (2024 Pan Am silver)

BELARUS - Niurgun Skriabin (2020 Euro silver)

NORTH KOREA - K Kim (2024 Asian Qualifier 5th)

CHINA - Shaohua Yuan (2024 Asian Qualifier 5th)

I'm not worried about spencer so long as he doesn't put his knees in dumb positions.

He looked so motivated but unconcerned at OTT's, I think he rides that to an olympic medal pretty nicely.  He looks like he's mostly through his transformation from the "college dan gable" stage to the "olympic ass-beating dan gable" stage of his career.  

I'm hopeful for Zain, but I unfortunately would also not be surprised if somehow the weight caught up with him.  He has a rough track record at 65kg, and my heart hopes but my head is hesitant to trust just yet.   

[Truzzcat]

3 minutes ago, wrestle87 said:

I'm not worried about spencer so long as he doesn't put his knees in dumb positions.

He looked so motivated but unconcerned at OTT's, I think he rides that to an olympic medal pretty nicely.  He looks like he's mostly through his transformation from the "college dan gable" stage to the "olympic ass-beating dan gable" stage of his career.  

I'm hopeful for Zain, but I unfortunately would also not be surprised if somehow the weight caught up with him.  He has a rough track record at 65kg, and my heart hopes but my head is hesitant to trust just yet.   

I have terrible memories of JO at the LCQ (hes my favorite wrestler of all time being a PA guy) He was probably wrestling the best he has in his life and just happened to run into the guy who would win worlds later that year and was already a 2x world medalist, this tournament can be an absolute beast. Pyles mentioned on FRl what is beneficial is the new true 5th addition as well as 3 spots being available it makes this tournament slightly less full of monsters as well as allowing you to wrestle back. As long as he can win his first match off the scale, I think he will get better as the day goes on, he looked considerably better in the second match against Lee and very strong against Jesse.

[Winners Circle]

20 hours ago, Tripnsweep said:

Only a few of those guys look like they would be a threat to Lee. The dark horse in that group is North Korea. They usually don't send somebody who isn't good. Also cool to see some less represented countries going, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Hong Kong (I know it isn't a country). 

I'm sure there is a bit of fear incentive to win as well.

[gromit]

1 hour ago, wrestle87 said:

Can somebody explain this one?

https://aueagles.com/news/2020/7/16/wrestling-kizhan-clarke.aspx
 

Born in Germany . Mother is

[Gantry]

Thanks for sharing the article on Clarke, an impressive person indeed. 

[CHROMEBIRD]

7 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Lee on the other hand has a net tonne of landmines he will have to navigate.  Luckily I don't think he cuts much (any) weight to make 57 KG, so he won't have to worry off the scale like Gilman would have.  I also think his skill advantage against everyone in the field will be evident early in matches.  I just hope he can put them away and not trust his tank.  Tilts should work better for points against the international folks, so we'll see.

Agreed. Admittedly, I thought Vito would be our best rep at the Olympics, if he could handle the cut, but think Spencer is the more likely of the two to qualify the weight. Making weight for OTTs and then having to suck down again a couple of weeks later might've been rough for Vito or Gilman. Spencer, no prob.

[Tripnsweep]

5 hours ago, Winners Circle said:

I'm sure there is a bit of fear incentive to win as well.

I have always been fascinated by their wrestling. They barely attend other tournaments, and the wrestlers they do send tend to be really good. I just wonder what their training is structured like. 

[Winners Circle]

14 hours ago, Tripnsweep said:

I have always been fascinated by their wrestling. They barely attend other tournaments, and the wrestlers they do send tend to be really good. I just wonder what their training is structured like. 

I think it's like this for most sports for them. I can't remember who it was, I want to say John Smith in his competition days, but I remember someone said "They spend 4 years training, show up at the Olympics, then you won't see them again for 4 years. They're scary."

[Tripnsweep]

1 hour ago, Winners Circle said:

I think it's like this for most sports for them. I can't remember who it was, I want to say John Smith in his competition days, but I remember someone said "They spend 4 years training, show up at the Olympics, then you won't see them again for 4 years. They're scary."

Might have been Zeke Jones, since he lost in the Olympic finals to a North Korean. 

[Spladle08]

On 4/23/2024 at 8:06 AM, nhs67 said:

To be clear, I am not saying Ochir is better than Zain - Zain has a Worlds Gold.  I am saying Sujeet Sujeet might be better.  He has an extremely high ceiling, but is similarly inconsistent to Johnny D.  It really depends on which one shows up.

I like Ochir vs all of our guys currently, I think he has brain farts every major tournament but man he is just so damn complete. 

I don't agree with everyone that Lee has a ton more landmines, but he does have a few more guys that could put him out early, especially with nerves and such but 
65kg is still a  bear
All these guys can beat Zain if he just has a bad match early it could be hasta. Ochir, Dudaev, Sujeet, Kudiev, Skirabin,  and we've seen Destribats get lucky (not saying he will again 65kg is just talent rich so anyone could pull a D-bats....  

I'm nervous, I dont think we will qualify one of the 2