Could Ohio state be the dark horse

[Wrestlingfan937]

Ohio state is looking tough, they have some people on there rosters that could make a deep run in march and make it under the lights. The question is will all of them live up to it? could the be a NCAA threat this year??

 

[1032004]

For 2nd place, sure

[wrestle87]

Consistency is a problem for that crew, and they do have some good guys, all of their best guys on the may could just as easily get bounced before the blood round.  They are very heavy with underclassmen, which would potentially be good, but their past couple cohorts of kids have bad trouble cracking that top top tier.  Obviously, Sasso is a G, but he came in at that level seemingly.  Development trajectory for Ohio State athletes hasn’t been groundbreaking in recent years.  

Being in a back and forth with Rutgers doesn’t put you at the top of the heap.  They can certainly be in the running for a team trophy of some sort maybe, but, in spite of a recent dual victory against Michigan, which I think will be their peak performance for the year, I put all of the following teams ahead of them rather comfortably:

In no particular order, NC State, Cornell, Okie State, Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, Penn State.  

[nhs67]

2 hours ago, wrestle87 said:

Consistency is a problem for that crew, and they do have some good guys, all of their best guys on the may could just as easily get bounced before the blood round.  They are very heavy with underclassmen, which would potentially be good, but their past couple cohorts of kids have bad trouble cracking that top top tier.  Obviously, Sasso is a G, but he came in at that level seemingly.  Development trajectory for Ohio State athletes hasn’t been groundbreaking in recent years.  

Being in a back and forth with Rutgers doesn’t put you at the top of the heap.  They can certainly be in the running for a team trophy of some sort maybe, but, in spite of a recent dual victory against Michigan, which I think will be their peak performance for the year, I put all of the following teams ahead of them rather comfortably:

In no particular order, NC State, Cornell, Okie State, Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, Penn State.  

They beat three of the teams you listed.  Not sure how you cold comfortably put them ahead of them...

[wrestle87]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

They beat three of the teams you listed.  Not sure how you cold comfortably put them ahead of them...

The topic is about placement at NCAA's.  It is the oldest story in the book that good dual teams and good tournament teams are not the same thing.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 hours ago, Wrestlingfan937 said:

Ohio state is looking tough, they have some people on there rosters that could make a deep run in march and make it under the lights. The question is will all of them live up to it? could the be a NCAA threat this year??

 

I have them finishing 12th at 45 points, 13 points behind Lehigh. So, no.

[ionel]

4 hours ago, 1032004 said:

For 12th place, sure

ftfy

[Hammerlock3]

4 hours ago, Wrestlingfan937 said:

Ohio state is looking tough, they have some people on there rosters that could make a deep run in march and make it under the lights. The question is will all of them live up to it? could the be a NCAA threat this year??

 

I get the feeling that OSU and tOSU are competing very well, partially as a result of having something to prove. you get the sense they have a chip on their shoulder....

[Wrestleknownothing]

17 minutes ago, ionel said:

ftfy

Wow, I had no idea how much wrestlestat loved Cornell.

[Fred]

38 minutes ago, wrestle87 said:

The topic is about placement at NCAA's.  It is the oldest story in the book that good dual teams and good tournament teams are not the same thing.  

At CKLV they finished ahead of 4 of the teams you listed.
 

[Hammerlock3]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Wow, I had no idea how much wrestlestat loved Cornell.

I haven't looked, but you could imagine it with the boost cardenas just gave himself. 

If Unger(cause 125), vito, shapiro, ramirez, foca and cardenas all wrestle well they could be a dominant second. I'm sure you could spin that with ten other teams but you get my point. 

[1032004]

29 minutes ago, ionel said:

ftfy

They certainly have a shot at 2nd IMO.

They have 5 guys “rated” between 9-15, who could score more than projected if they AA.  

They also have Welsh at 25 due to limited data who’s an AA contender.

They have Mendez at #4 who could win it all.

They also have potential bonus scorers (Bouzakis, Mendez, Rogotzke, Feldman all have bonus wins over NQ type guys)

[ionel]

3 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

They certainly have a shot at 2nd IMO.

They have 5 guys “rated” between 9-15, who could score more than projected if they AA.  

They also have Welsh at 25 due to limited data who’s an AA contender.

They have Mendez at #4 who could win it all.

They also have potential bonus scorers (Bouzakis, Mendez, Rogotzke, Feldman all have bonus wins over NQ type guys)

I wonder then if its also true that PSU has a shot at 8th.  Maybe Wkn has a data table to show us how that could happen? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

11 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

I haven't looked, but you could imagine it with the boost cardenas just gave himself. 

If Unger(cause 125), vito, shapiro, ramirez, foca and cardenas all wrestle well they could be a dominant second. I'm sure you could spin that with ten other teams but you get my point. 

They have Arujau and Shapiro winning. Those were the two biggest deltas.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, ionel said:

I wonder then if its also true that PSU has a shot at 8th.  Maybe Wkn has a data table to show us how that could happen? 

You may want to read up on this

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imaginary_number

 

[wrestle87]

3 hours ago, Fred said:

At CKLV they finished ahead of 4 of the teams you listed.
 

That's pretty darn good, and I did not realize that.  

At least assuming that their lineup they used against PSU is who they will be going with, they only have two wrestlers currently ranked in the top 8.  Now, even if a few guys break through and outplace their current standing, which is possible (but also very possible that they don't), each of those teams in my mind has way more high placing firepower.  Again, the ol' dual vs tournament situation.

If i've got to pick a team I think will accumulate the most points in a head to head at the ncaa's situation, I would pick each of those teams to place better than Ohio State.  

[nhs67]

6 hours ago, wrestle87 said:

The topic is about placement at NCAA's.  It is the oldest story in the book that good dual teams and good tournament teams are not the same thing.  

I know and understand that.  The wrestlers who wrestled the matchss there, though are mostly the ones expected tknhe as dnto NCAAs.  Same guys.  They aren't surprising anyone.

[1032004]

6 hours ago, ionel said:

I wonder then if its also true that PSU has a shot at 8th.  Maybe Wkn has a data table to show us how that could happen? 

Nope.  There is no chance PSU loses unless they have at least 2 more of their guys out due to injury

But tOSU certainly has a shot at 2nd.  They’re not built all that different to OSU IMO

Wrestlestat ratings highest to lowest:

tOSU: 4, 9, 10, 13, 14, 14, 19, 25, 26, 33

Ok St: 2, 2, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 23

The biggest advantage OK St has is Plott, who is rated 2nd but whose highest finish is 6th down a weight.  When you factor that Welsh is probably way too low and should likely be more around the 12ish range, tOSU would really only need to overperform by less than 2 places on average and OK St underperform by less than 2 places on average and they’d be right about the same score, especially considering tOSU has more bonus potential IMO.

[jajensen09]

I think nebraska has a higher ceiling than Ohio state or any team really besides psu

Edited February 7 by jajensen09

[RandolphTJones]

I think we all know 2nd place is the ceiling here. 

 

For the Bucks to keep up with Mich, Iowa, Nebraska, VT they need bonus points in matches they should win, and maybe an upset or 2 by the big pinners McCrone and Rogotzke. (Easier said than done)

Ohio St could finish 2nd or they could finish 12th. They are young, but they are gritty. 

[jajensen09]

7 minutes ago, RandolphTJones said:

I think we all know 2nd place is the ceiling here. 

 

For the Bucks to keep up with Mich, Iowa, Nebraska, VT they need bonus points in matches they should win, and maybe an upset or 2 by the big pinners McCrone and Rogotzke. (Easier said than done)

Ohio St could finish 2nd or they could finish 12th. They are young, but they are gritty. 

I agree. I think you could say this about all potential 2nd place teams .  The way I see it, who of the top guys do you trust most. Nebraska has Ridge, Hardy, Robb, Pinto, Allred, Smith. That's pretty deep. With Vann dee, Taylor, and Bubba Wilson potential scorers.

[Dogbone]

Someone is going to finish 8th who thought they had a chance to finish 2nd.   It's that even.   The trophy race (outside of PSU) is going to be fascinating this year. 

[Paul158]

20 minutes ago, RandolphTJones said:

I think we all know 2nd place is the ceiling here. 

 

For the Bucks to keep up with Mich, Iowa, Nebraska, VT they need bonus points in matches they should win, and maybe an upset or 2 by the big pinners McCrone and Rogotzke. (Easier said than done)

Ohio St could finish 2nd or they could finish 12th. They are young, but they are gritty. 

I have the low end ( a really bad tournament ) at 50 points. If the young Bucks wrestle lights out I have them 80 to 85 points. I'm not sure were that would put them in the team race but hopefully a trophy.

[ionel]

13 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

Someone is going to finish 8th who thought they had a chance to finish 2nd.   It's that even.   The trophy race (outside of PSU) is going to be fascinating this year. 

Unless its Penn St, check with Wkn. 

[BaldAt23]

18 hours ago, wrestle87 said:

Being in a back and forth with Rutgers doesn’t put you at the top of the heap. 

They won 7 of 10 bouts and won the dual by 10. I wouldn't exactly call that back and forth