11/28/2023 Projected Tournament Points

[Wrestleknownothing]

Let's start with the questions:

1. Will PSU break the all-time scoring record? In 1997 Dan Gable's Iowa team scored 170 points. But the scoring rules were different back then. Adjusted for today's advancement, placement, and bonus points the total would be 170.5. That is the easy adjustment. The more difficult adjustment is deciding what impact the 3 point TD might have had in 1997. My back of the envelope math puts it at +4.5 to +7 based on some assumptions about regular decisions that may have tipped to majors, and majors that may have become tech falls. The pinfalls remain the same. Now we have 175 to 177.5 as the new target for PSU. That means something like 55 to 57 bonus points. Hmmmm. Last year's team scored 19 bonus points (inserting Nagao for Bravo-Young) and would have scored 30 bonus points with the 3 point TD. Even with the additions this year I just cannot see it happening via the bonus point route. This is not a team of David Taylors. So to beat Iowa's point total (adjusted or otherwise) PSU will have to outperform their seeds. Yikes.
2. Is this the year of parity? Stay with me here. OK, so let's ignore that PSU is looking to more than double the second place total for a minute. The #2 through #10 teams are separated by only 14.8 points. Any of combination of these nine teams (and probably more) could round out the podium positions. Which three will it be? Based on pre-season rankings Cornell would join Nebraska and Michigan. Now it looks like Michigan, NC State, and Nebraska. More shake ups to come.
3. What will Iowa's lineup look like come the tournament and how will it impact the podium race? Right now Intermat has Kennedy at 174 and Arnold nowhere to be found. That seems likely to evolve as the season evolves. I have the feeling Arnold will be a factor somewhere, and with Iowa currently sitting in sixth position without him, they kind of feel like a podium team with him.
4. With apologies to @MPhillips, is it too early to talk about Ohio State's vaunted recruiting classes of 2019 and 2022? With two #1 ranked recruiting classes hitting at the same time I was a bit surprised to not see then among the top 10. Where for art thou? They came in at 11 on my list.

 

Notes:

I am only using Intermat rankings this year. Because reasons.

My projected points are based on the average points a given seed typically scores. Rather than assume that the one seed will score 20, I look at actual historical outcomes to account for the fact that sometimes the #1 seed does not win. In this way you can think of it as a probabilistic statement about points. On average a #1 seed only scores about 16.9 points. A lot, but not 20. This also means that wrestlers outside the top 8 get credit for some number of projected points.

 

 

[MPhillips]

 

6 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Ohio State's vaunted recruiting classes of 2019

If you mean this class, it speaks for itself...

 

OHIO STATE'S NO. 1 RECRUITING CLASS

RANK	WRESTLER	WEIGHT
NO. 1	Greg Kerkvliet (Simley, Minn.)	HWT
NO. 3	Carson Kharchla (Olentangy Liberty, Ohio)	165/174
NO. 6	Jordan Decatur (CVCA, Ohio)	133
NO. 18	Dylan D'Emilio (Genoa, Ohio)	141/149
NO. 66	Isaac Wilcox (Olympus, Utah)	165
NO. 100	Jacob Decatur (CVCA, Ohio)	125

[Wrestleknownothing]

And who says you need 10 ranked wrestlers?

Only Ohio State (11th), Iowa State (12th), and Rutgers (16th) have ten wrestlers in the Intermat Top 33, but each are expected to only have between 2 and 3 AA's.

[Gus]

I’ll take the over on Iowa State 2.6 AA’s

[ionel]

Its already been reported/suggested that PSU has peaked too early, maybe the point predictions should be adjusted accordingly.  

[BigRedFan]

Vito Arujau and Meyer Shapiro scoring a combined total of 14.3 points?  I'll take the over, thanks.

(I understand that what you did, like Asimov's psychohistory, applies to overall trends and not to individuals)

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 minutes ago, Gus said:

I’ll take the over on Iowa State 2.6 AA’s

Last year they had 4 guys seeded in the top 8. I had them projected at 3.1 going into the tourney. They finished with 2.

Who ya got on your list?

[Wrestleknownothing]

15 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

Vito Arujau and Meyer Shapiro scoring a combined total of 14.3 points?  I'll take the over, thanks.

(I understand that what you did, like Asimov's psychohistory, applies to overall trends and not to individuals)

Yeah, Shapiro seems very low. And I still feel like Arujau is the favorite?

[Wrestleknownothing]

One more caveat.

Every one of my predictions are wrong.

But I am right on average.

[Voice of the Quakers]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

One more caveat.

Every one of my predictions are wrong.

But I am right on average.

Spoken like a true/fellow data scientist.

[MPhillips]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Every one of my predictions are wrong.

Much like fly. And still adored by man and beast alike...

[Gus]

3 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Last year they had 4 guys seeded in the top 8. I had them projected at 3.1 going into the tourney. They finished with 2.

Who ya got on your list?

I have Carr as a lock, Bastida as a highly likely and then I just need one of Terukina, Ech, Swiderski, Chittum or Feldcamp. 

[Le duke]

I think Penn State might get more than 1.4 points out of Mesenbrink. Just a guess, though.

[Wrestleknownothing]

16 minutes ago, Gus said:

I have Carr as a lock, Bastida as a highly likely and then I just need one of Terukina, Ech, Swiderski, Chittum or Feldcamp. 

Here is what I have:

"Seed" is really Intermat Rank at this point.

[Gus]

5 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Here is what I have:

"Seed" is really Intermat Rank at this point.

That sounds about right currently. I expect Ech, Swiderski and Chittum to continue to improve their seed throughout the year. 141 has 6 returning AA's (Woods, Bartlett, McNeil, Mendez, Hardy, Carlson), 5 of which I think are highly likely to place again (my guy Carlson being the toss up). 149 has 4 guys that are really tough and I would be surprised to see them finish off the podium (Lovett, SVN, Henson, Parco), 3 guys with solid track records of success (Lamer, Arrington, D'Emilio) and then it is wide open. 157 has Haines and Robb atop (perhaps Shapiro can find himself in this tier as the season progresses) and then a a lot of parity among the next group of 12 guys. By years end I think Ech ends up around #10 ranking, Swiderski around #6 and Chittum around #9. However, I also think that Evan Frost probably drops down a few spots as the season goes on. Time will tell.

[Wrestleknownothing]

31 minutes ago, Le duke said:

I think Penn State might get more than 1.4 points out of Mesenbrink. Just a guess, though.

As I thought they would get more than zero out of Facundo. But I hope you are right.

[AgaveMaria]

Iowa State takes Second. Campbell breaks into the Top 10

As I learned from Religion: When you have faith, facts don't matter.

[Wrestleknownothing]

13 minutes ago, AgaveMaria said:

Iowa State takes Second. Campbell breaks into the Top 10

As I learned from Religion: When you have faith, facts don't matter.

Bold

[Tigerfan]

Another interesting analysis, thank you!  It does make me wonder, specifically in the case of Mizzou, how often do returning AA’s finish lower than the previous year, and on average, how likely are returning AA’s to continue improving across a career? 
 

I thought Mizzou had something like 64 returning points, but I don’t think I’ve seen any projections that have them equaling that total, much less improving on it. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

15 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

Another interesting analysis, thank you!  It does make me wonder, specifically in the case of Mizzou, how often do returning AA’s finish lower than the previous year, and on average, how likely are returning AA’s to continue improving across a career? 
 

I thought Mizzou had something like 64 returning points, but I don’t think I’ve seen any projections that have them equaling that total, much less improving on it. 

Good questions. I left everything at the office tonight, but I will look at this tomorrow. Though my data does not have class in it, sp that will be a challenge. And what the hell does class even mean anymore? Another challenge.

[Wrestleknownothing]

17 hours ago, Tigerfan said:

Another interesting analysis, thank you!  It does make me wonder, specifically in the case of Mizzou, how often do returning AA’s finish lower than the previous year, and on average, how likely are returning AA’s to continue improving across a career? 
 

I thought Mizzou had something like 64 returning points, but I don’t think I’ve seen any projections that have them equaling that total, much less improving on it. 

I do not think this is a perfect way to look at it, but it is my first cut.

To solve the lack of data about class (FR, SO, JR, SR) I narrowed my focus to the four time AA (excluding 2020). For Myles Amine I only used his first four years.

There have been 154 four time AAs. But treating them as a group when looking at paths is problematic because the guys who started by winning their freshman year cannot improve upon that performance. So I segmented the group by starting points (freshman finish).

Obviously, the guys who won it all as a freshman perform the worst on average their sophomore year as their delta can only be zero or negative.

A couple observations:

• Freshman AAs, who go on to AA four times, are pretty evenly distributed among the places.
• That qualifier in the previous sentence is doing a lot of work. Missing from this analysis are guys who AAed as freshman, but did not AA all four years. That puts a potentially significant upward bias on all the deltas above.
• Surprising to me, on average second through eighth place finishers as freshman improve on that placement as sophomores.
• Broadly speaking, in this limited data set, yes, AAs do tend to improve in their career. But again, this is just true for four timers.

For giggles, here are the four timers who won it as freshmen:

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

19 hours ago, Tigerfan said:

Another interesting analysis, thank you!  It does make me wonder, specifically in the case of Mizzou, how often do returning AA’s finish lower than the previous year, and on average, how likely are returning AA’s to continue improving across a career? 
 

I thought Mizzou had something like 64 returning points, but I don’t think I’ve seen any projections that have them equaling that total, much less improving on it. 

As to the Mizzou question, I have them with 61 returning points (that includes Colton Hawks who may or may not be the starter?). That total includes bonus points. My projections do not. So 10 bonus points certainly seems possible.

[Tigerfan]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I do not think this is a perfect way to look at it, but it is my first cut.

To solve the lack of data about class (FR, SO, JR, SR) I narrowed my focus to the four time AA (excluding 2020). For Myles Amine I only used his first four years.

There have been 154 four time AAs. But treating them as a group when looking at paths is problematic because the guys who started by winning their freshman year cannot improve upon that performance. So I segmented the group by starting points (freshman finish).

Obviously, the guys who won it all as a freshman perform the worst on average their sophomore year as their delta can only be zero or negative.

A couple observations:

• Freshman AAs, who go on to AA four times, are pretty evenly distributed among the places.
• That qualifier in the previous sentence is doing a lot of work. Missing from this analysis are guys who AAed as freshman, but did not AA all four years. That puts a potentially significant upward bias on all the deltas above.
• Surprising to me, on average second through eighth place finishers as freshman improve on that placement as sophomores.
• Broadly speaking, in this limited data set, yes, AAs do tend to improve in their career. But again, this is just true for four timers.

For giggles, here are the four timers who won it as freshmen:

 

Data is fun! It’s too bad you’re limited by a lack of class data. Is there a way to simply look at each year and compare who finished lower than the previous year (thus including some non-4xers), then correlating that with their respective seeds? I wonder if a returning AA is more likely to repeat if they are a 2x returning AA, rather than one? 
 

Also, what is the average bonus points scored per seed? Could you factor that into your projections? For the record, you are a national treasure. 
 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

On 11/28/2023 at 11:37 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Let's start with the questions:

1. Will PSU break the all-time scoring record? In 1997 Dan Gable's Iowa team scored 170 points. But the scoring rules were different back then. Adjusted for today's advancement, placement, and bonus points the total would be 170.5. That is the easy adjustment. The more difficult adjustment is deciding what impact the 3 point TD might have had in 1997. My back of the envelope math puts it at +4.5 to +7 based on some assumptions about regular decisions that may have tipped to majors, and majors that may have become tech falls. The pinfalls remain the same. Now we have 175 to 177.5 as the new target for PSU. That means something like 55 to 57 bonus points. Hmmmm. Last year's team scored 19 bonus points (inserting Nagao for Bravo-Young) and would have scored 30 bonus points with the 3 point TD. Even with the additions this year I just cannot see it happening via the bonus point route. This is not a team of David Taylors. So to beat Iowa's point total (adjusted or otherwise) PSU will have to outperform their seeds. Yikes.

 

 

When was the last rule change that directly affected tournament scoring from bonus points? 1994?

Edited November 29, 2023 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[SocraTease]

Is Wrestleknownothing the Billy Bean (Money Ball) of wrestling?  Perhaps there is a statistical future as an advisor for a D1 team.   Can he take, say, Maryland or Bloomsburg to an NCAA championship with un/orthodox analytics?