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Everyone's All-American


Wrestleknownothing

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With the World Championships wrapped up and the College season about 6 weeks away, it is time to start revving the NCAA engine a little.

Let's start by looking at All-Americans.

And let's get this out of the way up front. Yes, I include the top 8 seeds from the cancelled 2020 tournament. So sue me.

AA Trivia

  • There have been 190 schools with at least one All-American.
  • A total of 5,590 All-American honors have been shared by 3,307 wrestlers (or perhaps fewer if I have some mis-spellings).
  • In 1981 there were only 79 All-Americans as there was no 8th place awarded at 134.
  • Oklahoma State, at 480 AA's, is a full 32.6% ahead of Iowa's 362.
  • The longest active streak of consecutive years with at least one All-American belongs to Iowa at 52 years.
  • The longest dry spell is Army at 15 years. They last had an AA in 2008 (Matt Kyler, 141).

The Top 5

image.thumb.png.2b6fa91ef504f2b315556533ebbb4fb8.png

At each team's current pace (average of 2022 and 2023):

  • Iowa will overtake Oklahoma State for the all time lead in 2057.
  • Penn State will overtake Iowa in 2101. Cael Sanderson will be 121 years old and still wondering if Christian Pyle has a plan.

AA's By Total

     Wrestlers with 5 AAs:       6
     Wrestlers with 4 AAs:    171
     Wrestlers with 3 AAs:   447
     Wrestlers with 2 AAs:   852
     Wrestlers with 1 AAs: 1,830

Probability of AA by Year

We are used to 33 man brackets with 8 AA's per bracket (~24%), but it wasn't always that way. Using the rules that existed at the time and @Jason Bryant's participation stats by year, the most difficult year to AA was 1970 when only 15% of wrestlers earned AA status.

image.png.ee8959d40787892cc96c0a2d76b46675.png

Where the AA's Come From

Not every AA was a top 8 seed to begin with. Below is the percentage of AA's by seed (left column) and broken into the seeding eras.

image.thumb.png.0149355025c4b68e2028980c9be62a33.png

 

What Is A Top 8 Seed Worth?

Seven of the past nine years have been hard on Top 8 seeds. From 2014 to present, only 2017 and 2019 saw them perform above trend.

image.thumb.png.c1af3d2d3b56246dbc4e8874e8a306be.png

 

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1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

With the World Championships wrapped up and the College season about 6 weeks away, it is time to start revving the NCAA engine a little.

Let's start by looking at All-Americans.

And let's get this out of the way up front. Yes, I include the top 8 seeds from the cancelled 2020 tournament. So sue me.

 

attorney phone number?  🙂

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Very nice work.

When did NCAA change from 3 All Americans to a greater number?

Was that a one time change or did they go in smaller jumps to the current 8?

What effect does that have on the percentages? From 3AA's to greater numbers?

” Never attribute to inspiration that which can be adequately explained by delusion”.

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9 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

for your top chart which is the cumulative AA time series by team - I would be curious if the slope of the last five years or so was applied to the future - at what point is PSU expected to overtake Iowa and Oklahoma State.

I did it above based on two years (Iowa passes Oklahoma State in 2057, PSU passes Iowa in 2101).

Based on five years PSU never overtakes Iowa. Iowa average 6.6 to PSU's 6.4 in the last five years. Oklahoma State only has 3.6 per year for the prior five.

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18 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

for your top chart which is the cumulative AA time series by team - I would be curious if the slope of the last five years or so was applied to the future - at what point is PSU expected to overtake Iowa and Oklahoma State.

I am interested in the second derivative?  

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7 minutes ago, AgaveMaria said:

Very nice work.

When did NCAA change from 3 All Americans to a greater number?

Was that a one time change or did they go in smaller jumps to the current 8?

What effect does that have on the percentages? From 3AA's to greater numbers?

It looks a little something like this.

image.png.b4c60da814fc1ae5e9bca7cc04cd70cd.png

1928 - 1940 = 3

1941 - 1962 = 4

1963 - 1978 = 6

1979 - 2023 = 8

The percentage are the orange line in the Probability AA graph in the first post above.

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2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

One more I like:

image.thumb.png.d43052a56774b493b11e569aef91fffa.png

This is cool ( except that I'm colorblind and it's this test I fail). Does it include AA's while in other divisions? I ask because UNI has a pretty big circle,  and many of their AA's happened while they were a DII school. 

Edited by Ban Basketball

Owner of over two decades of the most dangerous words on the internet!  In fact, during the short life of this forum, me's culture has been cancelled three times on this very site!

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15 minutes ago, Ban Basketball said:

This is cool ( except that I'm colorblind and it's this test I fail). Does it include AA's while in other divisions? I ask because UNI has a pretty big circle,  and many of their AA's happened while they were a DII school. 

As long as they wrestled in the D1 (and predecessor) national championship then they count. So yes, all the UNI "D2" results are in there.

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16 hours ago, OMW said:

NCAA DI wrestling didn't begin until 2009-2010.

Pretty sure that's when it died.  😞

And while Douglas read a book on Karl
The hawkeyes practiced in the park
And we sang dirges in the dark
The day the wrestling died

And the three men I admire most
The JRob, Brands, and Smith the GOAT
They caught the last train for the coast
The day the wrestling died

 

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2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

More like:

His head is full of magic, baby
And he won't share this with Pyle
The feeling PSU's on top again, baby
That's got everything to do with Cael

They're alive, huh, huh, so alive
They're alive, huh, huh so alive

huh?  

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