new 3 point takedown....get ready to see tons of tech falls?

[fishbane]

On 6/21/2023 at 11:26 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

I have no idea what a fall is, but further down page 1 is an expanded table that includes MD, TF, and PF.

The average number of majors per tournament was ~98.

The average number of tech falls per tournament was ~17.

The average number of pinfalls per tournament was ~69.

A pinfall was 4 times more likely than a tech fall. If we scored it like poker, the tech fall would be worth more than the pinfall.

Even with the change in scoring rules I am guessing tech falls increase by 100% to 150% which would still make them more rare than a pinfall.

Before 2015-2016 2 points were awarded for a NF between 2 and 4 seconds and 3 points for a NF of 5 seconds or more.  It was then changed to 2 points for a NF of 2-3 seconds and 4 points for 4 seconds or more.  If we compare the period 2008-2015 (before the 4 point NF) with 2016-2021 (after the 4 point NF and before extra the free year) the # of TF increased from 12.8 to 27.2 per tournament.  That is an increase of 112.5%.  This increase came from turning MDs into NFs, but also from turning PFs into TFs.  Pinfalls fell from an average of 71.6/tournament before the rule change to 67 after.  This was a decrease of 6.4%.  

I suspect the effect of the rules scheduled for next season to be more significant than those back 2015-2016.  The 4 point NF turned all 3 point NFs into 4 point NFs (an increase of 33%) and some 2 point NFs (over 4s and < 5s) into 4 points NFs an increase of 100%.  The changes for next season not only increase some 2 point NFs into 3 points NFs but increase TDs, which are much more common, by 50%. 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by fishbane

[fishbane]

 deleted

Edited June 22, 2023 by fishbane

[fishbane]

On 6/20/2023 at 7:11 PM, MPhillips said:

Have other scoring changes, 'tainted' previous scoring records?

Definitely not tainted nor do I think there should be a footnote next to records.  This is not typically how these things are handled in other sports.  When the NFL added the two point conversion did they add a footnote next to scoring records?  Does the NBA put an asterisk next to point totals from the 3 point era?  I don't think they do and I don't think wrestling should group scoring records pre 3 point TD and post 3 point TD.

I think it should be used to add context goat debates.   Say comparing Cael Sanderson's career to that of Zain Retherford, Jason Nolf, Bo Nickal, Yianni Diakomihalis, Spencer Lee, Aaron Brooks, Carter Starocci, Keegan O'Toole ect this should be taken into account.  All these guys wrestled in the 4 point NF era where bonus points are easier to come by.  This should be taken into account when comparing bonus rates across eras.  Look at bonus point rate compared to the average NCAA qualifier or something like that.  It would be kind of like how WAR in baseball adjusts the replacement level player based on performance in the league that year.

How this might be done on a team scale could be illustrated by looking at Penn State.  The top three teams in PSU history were the National title winning 2017 squad, the national title winning 2018 squad, and this years national title winning team.  No major team scoring changes were made between 2017 and 2023 nor were there any major changes to bout scoring.  In 2017 the team scored 146.5 Team points at NCAAs, in 2018 the team scored 141.5, and this year they scored 137.5. Looking at the absolute number it would seam 2017>2018>2023, but looking at WKN's table of bonus point victories at NCAAs 2017 and 2018 were the highest scoring years in the 15 year period with 306.5 and 292 respectively.  Meanwhile this season was one of the tournaments with the fewest bonus points scored, only 225.5.   

In the context of scoring so many team points in a tournament where team points were more difficult to obtain 137.5 might be more impressive than 146.5 or 141.5.  Perhaps looking at PSU's scoring in comparison to the total team points awarded at the tournament would prove more useful.  In years where a large skill variance in the competitors making MDs, TFs, and PFs easier to come by this would be reflected in the total bonus points scored over all matches.  Similarly if a rule change made smaller skill differences translate into larger point differences, thus making bonus points more common it would be reflected in the totals as well.

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by fishbane
Fixed years in table

[ionel]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

These guys are elite athletes known for their strength, balance and spatial awareness. But @Jason Bryant and @ionel want me to believe they lose because they just fell down?

I'm not buying it, and they shouldn't be selling it.

This reminds me of a consulting project where advised the business client (Wkn in this case) you don't know what you don't know. 

[PencilNeck]

Techs will likely go up due to more points available for the same scoring sequences.

Pinfalls could go up or down. Obviously making techs easier will mean you have less time to pinfall your opponent, so fewer pinfalls due to that. However, incentivizing takedowns could mean more on the feet wrestling, people choosing neutral, etc. 

Now, if the number of takedowns increases, the opportunities for taking an opponent down to his back (a better way to pinfall an opponent than stalling with an ankle ride or whatever) also increases.  of course that also means more NF, so quicker techs from that as well, but any time you get someone on his back, especially in a good hold and not a cheap tilt, you increase the odds of a pinfall.

So - Techs almost certainly up, pinfalls a bit undetermined, but likely slightly down, and majors certainly up. I like that we'll see more majors because you can give an absolutely dominating performance and win like 6-0. Will be nice to see some of those matches earn bonus points because 6-0 or 8-2 or 10-4 under 2 pt TDs for college wrestling is a dominating performance.

[fishbane]

39 minutes ago, PencilNeck said:

Techs will likely go up due to more points available for the same scoring sequences.

Pinfalls could go up or down. Obviously making techs easier will mean you have less time to pinfall your opponent, so fewer pinfalls due to that. However, incentivizing takedowns could mean more on the feet wrestling, people choosing neutral, etc. 

The change in pins from 2008-2015 to 2016-2021 was not really statistically significant.  The t statistic for MDs and TFs was over 3.5. For PFs it was ~<1 so we can't really conclude anything changed with respect to pins from the data available.

Being able to score 7 points from a TD to NF is kind of crazy.  Imagine a 1 point match late where the trailing wrestler throws sends it trying to win the match and gets taken down to his back.  It could go from 1 stall call away from OT to a MD real quick.  1 scoring action really.

[CHROMEBIRD]

I modestly propose a 14 point takedown rule

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 hours ago, ionel said:

This reminds me of a consulting project where advised the business client (Wkn in this case) you don't know what you don't know. 

I have long suspected you were the reincarnated spirit of Donald Rumsfeld. And now I have my proof.

[ionel]

21 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I have long suspected you were the reincarnated spirit of Donald Rumsfeld. And now I have my proof.

[Wrestleknownothing]

@fishbane I am loving the call for advanced stats for wrestling. 

And on the previous board I did a normalization of past champs by looking at percentage of perfect score. I will see if I can dig that up.

[PencilNeck]

4 hours ago, fishbane said:

The change in pins from 2008-2015 to 2016-2021 was not really statistically significant.  The t statistic for MDs and TFs was over 3.5. For PFs it was ~<1 so we can't really conclude anything changed with respect to pins from the data available.

Being able to score 7 points from a TD to NF is kind of crazy.  Imagine a 1 point match late where the trailing wrestler throws sends it trying to win the match and gets taken down to his back.  It could go from 1 stall call away from OT to a MD real quick.  1 scoring action really.

I wouldn't really expect statistical significance on the change in pinfalls. It's different wrestlers, and college guys are good at avoiding getting pinned. however, more techs means fewer minutes wrestling, so it's near certain that during some of those minutes and seconds that weren't wrestled, there likely would have been some falls happening. and if even of one of those missed pins happens in a close dual...

The first college match i attended in 2016, I saw a 7pt move. It was sweet. takedown, backpoints, and then i think injury time. Of course if you give up a 7 pt move, make an escape, and then earn just two takedowns under new rules you're only trailing 8-7 at that point.

the example of the 7pt move to earn a major at the end is an interesting one though! I guess the moral of the story is stay off your back. that would seem kind of like a cheap major, but not as bad as getting pinned in overtime. that never seemed like it should be worth the full 6 points (or whatever it is in a tournament) to me.

[D3UC157]

4 hours ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

I modestly propose a 14 point takedown rule

Also, -1 point for an escape.

[PencilNeck]

11 minutes ago, D3UC157 said:

Also, -1 point for an escape.

Yeah! I miss reversals.

[CHROMEBIRD]

14 hours ago, PencilNeck said:

Yeah! I miss reversals.

R.. re... ver... sals?

[Theo Brixton]

On 6/21/2023 at 6:38 AM, Husker_Du said:

i wouldn't say 'taint'. (that's a funny word).

Mr. Show thought so too (NSFW):

 

[neutral]

Why a 3 point TD?  Is a TD more valuable than a reversal?  A TD goes from a position of no control to having control.  A reversal is exactly that, going from being controlled to being in position of control. Shouldn't they have equal value? 

[neutral]

Let's take a deeper dive.  What is the point of US folkstyle wrestling?  Ultimately it is to get a pin.  Now, over the years that emphasis has changed but is still match ending determinent.  So we made back exposures worth 2, 3, or 4 points.  And now I believe just 3 points for all exposures not resulting in a pin.  I am having cognitive dissonance over placing an equal value to both back exposures and TDs.  Are we arguing that require the same amount of effort and thus should be equally rewarded?  I would content going from a position on the bottom to a position of control is just as difficult as achieving a takedown.  So shouldn't the reward be the same?

[mspart]

Interesting thoughts!

mspart

[PencilNeck]

2 hours ago, neutral said:

Why a 3 point TD?  Is a TD more valuable than a reversal?  A TD goes from a position of no control to having control.  A reversal is exactly that, going from being controlled to being in position of control. Shouldn't they have equal value? 

Honestly, a good stalling tactic if you’re winning but gassing and about to give up an  escape or reversal might be to base out and allow the reversal. Then your opponent has to consider if they should cut you meanwhile, the clock keeps ticking…

 

okay, that’s a terrible idea, but in just the right situation…maybe?

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 hours ago, neutral said:

Let's take a deeper dive.  What is the point of US folkstyle wrestling?  Ultimately it is to get a pin.  Now, over the years that emphasis has changed but is still match ending determinent.  So we made back exposures worth 2, 3, or 4 points.  And now I believe just 3 points for all exposures not resulting in a pin.  I am having cognitive dissonance over placing an equal value to both back exposures and TDs.  Are we arguing that require the same amount of effort and thus should be equally rewarded?  I would content going from a position on the bottom to a position of control is just as difficult as achieving a takedown.  So shouldn't the reward be the same?

One of the points was to create greater separation between a takedown and an escape/release. But you outlined some unintended consequences.

As for back points, 3 was added rather than replacing 2 or 4.

[neutral]

So to clarify, are the 2 and 4 point nearfalls still in effect?  I can't find further explanation.

I don't believe separation between a TD and an escape is necessary but that is just my opinion among so many.

[Wrestleknownothing]

30 minutes ago, neutral said:

So to clarify, are the 2 and 4 point nearfalls still in effect?  I can't find further explanation.

I don't believe separation between a TD and an escape is necessary but that is just my opinion among so many.

Correct. From the Flo article:

Next season, near-falls will be worth two, three and four points depending on whether a wrestler receives two, three or four swipes. 

[neutral]

Ok, now I get it.  I still don't believe a TD should be worth more than a turn.

[DJT]

7 hours ago, neutral said:

What is the point of US folkstyle wrestling? 

If you just posted this, rhetorically, I’d agree wholeheartedly.

[Show_Me]

On 6/22/2023 at 9:38 PM, PencilNeck said:

but not as bad as getting pinned in overtime. That never seemed like it should be worth the full 6 points (or whatever it is in a tournament) to me.

Agree.  Have always thought the same.

It’s almost like you are “over-rewarding” the winner who couldn’t win outright in 7 minutes (or) “over-penalizing” the loser who was competitive enough to put the match into sv or tb.