2023 NCAA seeding discussion

[jmoney]

17 minutes ago, Elevator said:

Not sure of Brooks really cares about his draw, but probably would have taken a few more matches if he knew.  Hilday and then PK is not easy, but I think he handles it.

He’s 2-0 against each in his career. Interestingly enough, he has Hidlay on his bracket side, meanwhile Coleman who beat him on the other side. Coleman is matched up against the 4 seed who he’s lost to and 1 seed who he’s lost to twice ! This is shaping up to be a Keckheisen Brooks finale. I’ll take Brooks as champion 

[aknipp]

No discussion on 197?   Dean drops to 9th seed?   That weight is messed up. A lot of talent with not a lot of matches (12-1)   

 

Not certain how it should be seeded but I think its messed up. 

[1032004]

Thought it was interesting that 8 of the #1 seeds have less than 20 matches

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Thought it was interesting that 8 of the #1 seeds have less than 20 matches

There was no penalty for not wrestling, just a penalty for losing.

[lu_alum]

No discussion on 197?   Dean drops to 9th seed?   That weight is messed up. A lot of talent with not a lot of matches (12-1)   
 
Not certain how it should be seeded but I think its messed up. 

Message to Dean: To avoid being seeded #9, don’t lose to the #4, #5, and #8 seeds.


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[BerniePragle]

10 hours ago, jmoney said:

157 is pretty deep in the 4-10 spots. Some good all American battles to be had. Andonian Scott and Lewan as 7-8-9 seeds in no partic order 

If Scott can't get Lewan to wrestle in the second round, I'm not sure anyone can.  Scott doesn't often go 1-1, 2-2 OT.

[Idaho]

8 minutes ago, lu_alum said:

Message to Dean: To avoid being seeded #9, don’t lose to the #4, #5, and #8 seeds.


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Yep.... that top quarter is pretty brutal. 

[Idaho]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There was no penalty for not wrestling, just a penalty for losing.

Ducking.... Despicable or Masterful? 

 

[Gus]

5 minutes ago, Idaho said:

Yep.... that top quarter is pretty brutal. 

197 is just a weight with a lot of parity. You have another quarter with Rocky Elam, Cam Caffey and Jacob Warner. Another quarter with Tanner Sloan, Gavin Hoffman and Jacob Cardenas. Tough weight class.

[Wrestleknownothing]

20 minutes ago, Idaho said:

Ducking.... Despicable or Masterful? 

 

Yes

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Thought it was interesting that 8 of the #1 seeds have less than 20 matches

For example, no pattern to the average number of wins by seed, but a definite pattern to the average number of losses.

[Wrestleknownothing]

By the way, the losses for the 4 seed above are incorrect, but it is too late for me to edit and replace the graph. I noticed that the official NCAA brackets have Michael McGee (ASU 133) with a 20-10 record. His actual record is 20-2. 

Also known as 20 and Vitali.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[1032004]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There was no penalty for not wrestling, just a penalty for losing.

Unless your name is Josh Humphreys. Interestingly he wrestled in the PSU dual and Haines did not.

[MLB9]

What do you all see in a Dean/Allred rematch, assuming it happens? Watching that beatdown, I don't see how any PSU game planning and adjustments can change the end result. Allred's had significant issues with Sloan and Trumble this year. Has he improved that much, or are these all matchup and style aspects?

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Unless your name is Josh Humphreys. Interestingly he wrestled in the PSU dual and Haines did not.

Yeah, he is a curious case. All other undefeated wrestlers (11) are either the 1 seed or the 2 seed, but he is the 5 seed behind three one loss wrestlers and an undefeated wrestler.

The Iowa and PSU fans complain they get penalized for wrestling a tough B1G schedule, but it seems clear that the opposite was the case for Haines and Robb.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

6 minutes ago, MLB9 said:

What do you all see in a Dean/Allred rematch, assuming it happens? Watching that beatdown, I don't see how any PSU game planning and adjustments can change the end result. Allred's had significant issues with Sloan and Trumble this year. Has he improved that much, or are these all matchup and style aspects?

I don't see Dean beating Allred.  Here is why:

1. Allred is much bigger and longer than Dean.

2. Allred is better on his feet than Dean, by a lot.  He took Dean down 3 times.

3. Allred can build a lead from neutral and avoid going on bottom.

 

Allred's game plan is easy.  Score 1 or 2 TDs in the first, don't pick bottom and win the match.

For Dean to win he has to beat Allred in takedowns, which is going to be very hard for him.

[Wrestleknownothing]

11 minutes ago, MLB9 said:

What do you all see in a Dean/Allred rematch, assuming it happens? Watching that beatdown, I don't see how any PSU game planning and adjustments can change the end result. Allred's had significant issues with Sloan and Trumble this year. Has he improved that much, or are these all matchup and style aspects?

I would not discount the planning and adjustments options of the PSU staff/wrestlers.

Dean could not penetrate Allred's defense in their earlier match. And he could not stop Allred's shots. If Dean can find a way to finish/get past Allred's defense then he spends less time defending Allred's shots. I have no idea what that adjustment might be, but I know that PSU has a very good history here.

I am not calling for a Dean win, but I do think that no one should be surprised if he did take the re-match.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[MLB9]

It's weird to say, but it wouldn't surprise me based on the recent history of PSU adjustments. But I still can't see it based on what happened Sunday. All great points and I agree with you all you both said. Or at least it sure seemed that way four days ago.

Another landmine I see for PSU is the Haines/Andonian potential quarterfinal. I think I do slightly overrate Andonian, though. 

[bnwtwg]

14 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Max Dean a 9 seed. Kerk the 3 seed. 

Second best wrestler punished for losing to the best wrestler. I'm a huge Hendrickson stan but wtf he does NOT deserve a top 3 seed with that joke of an Air Force schedule. This is why coaches skip matches and don't put their wrestlers' records at risk.

[tiger-style]

For someone getting back into wrestling after years of not paying attention, why does the match count seem so low for quite a few of the wrestlers? I see number 1 seeds that are something like 16-0. You used to see ~40 matches in a given season.

Edited March 9, 2023 by tiger-style
clarity

[1032004]

20 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Second best wrestler punished for losing to the best wrestler. I'm a huge Hendrickson stan but wtf he does NOT deserve a top 3 seed with that joke of an Air Force schedule. This is why coaches skip matches and don't put their wrestlers' records at risk.

It’s not like Hendrickson has had a cake schedule.

He wrestled at CKLV where he lost to Parris, he did MFF one match but it was to Slavikouski (6 seed at NCAA’s) who he had beaten earlier in the tourney.

Other wins over Schuyler (8 seed), Gordon (13), Nevills 2x (14), Greiss (15), and Crosby (28).

Edited March 9, 2023 by 1032004

[ionel]

9 minutes ago, tiger-style said:

For someone getting back into wrestling after years of not paying attention, why does the match count seem so low for quite a few of the wrestlers? I see number 1 seeds that are something like 16-0. You used to see ~40 matches in a given season.

[Wrestleknownothing]

15 minutes ago, tiger-style said:

For someone getting back into wrestling after years of not paying attention, why does the match count seem so low for quite a few of the wrestlers? I see number 1 seeds that are something like 16-0. You used to see ~40 matches in a given season.

Post pandemic there has been a lot of "load management" and fewer tournaments to fatten up win totals.

[bnwtwg]

12 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

It’s not like Hendrickson has had a cake schedule.

He wrestled at CKLV where he lost to Parris, he did MFF one match but it was to Slavikouski (6 seed at NCAA’s) who he had beaten earlier in the tourney.

Other wins over Schuyler (8 seed), Gordon (13), Nevills 2x (14), Greiss (15), and Crosby (28).

But not as robust as Cassioppi. Please don't make me defend Iowa... the fact that they outrecruit Poeta and I have to defend the IL guys makes me sick to my stomach.

Schuyler (8), Davison 2x (9), Hilger (11), Orndorff (16), Doucet (20), McDermott (24), and Goldin (27).

[jackwebster]

14 hours ago, ionel said:

Nah ... he'll be lucky if Witcraft doesn't pin him in the first period. 

Out of bounds