Pre-Allocations Announced

[Red Blades]

13 hours ago, mspart said:

If the rankings are any good at all, they could just include the top 32 and fill the bracket.  That way conferences don't get auto bids, the top guys do. 

Aye, but there lies the rub - are the rankings that good?

The way I see it, the top 24 guys, maybe more, are going to qualify one way or another.  But the current system also provides a way for the guys who might be on the wrong side of the bubble to "play their way" in.  This also makes the conference tournament more meaningful.

I do think the current system is also WAY better than the old system (was replaced when, say 15-20 years ago?) where the conference allocations were awarded based on prior year's AA count per conference, and the conferences could allocate among the weight classes as they chose to.

And I like that each conference gets that minimum one qualifier per weight class.  It gives every conference some representation, and a chance to prove that sometimes the pundits are wrong.

Let's go, LIU!!

[Jason Bryant]

54 minutes ago, Red Blades said:

Let's go, LIU!!

ROLL SHARKS! 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Jason Bryant

[jajensen09]

Something to watch. Nebraska has 3 guys on the edge of qualifying.  The 6 horses will score alot in ncaas. If they get these 3 others in, it could be a big impact on the team race!

[Plasmodium]

Wrestling fan here.  I'm feeling a little embarrassed for John Smith.  Okie State only has Fix ranked in the top 8.  3 others in the top 11.  OTH, I like a story of redemption and that could be Kaden Gfelller this year.

[BigRedFan]

41 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Something to watch. Nebraska has 3 guys on the edge of qualifying.  The 6 horses will score alot in ncaas. If they get these 3 others in, it could be a big impact on the team race!

How many points would one expect from someone who is only on the edge of qualifying?  If they get a seed below 30, will they likely score much if any?

[ionel]

6 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

How many points would one expect from someone who is only on the edge of qualifying?  If they get a seed below 30, will they likely score much if any?

0.05 ... having 3 more guys will make no difference, NE will run with 6 horses led by Pinto - he's on fire.   

[Matthew Burns]

Regarding Pac 12 tournament AQs...

 

I thought the NCAA was stingy with those allocations on the surface. Dig a little deeper and it makes more sense.

 

I many years the PAC 12 has a 4 man field for an entire weight class. 2 wins and you at league champion. That's a pretty humble march to a title. In fact IIRC Shane Griffin won the PAC 12 title with a single win over Anthony Valencia recently.

At large bids help take care of the rest of that field.

[mspart]

1 hour ago, Plasmodium said:

Wrestling fan here.  I'm feeling a little embarrassed for John Smith.  Okie State only has Fix ranked in the top 8.  3 others in the top 11.  OTH, I like a story of redemption and that could be Kaden Gfelller this year.

Gives OSU a chance to wrestle above their seed.  Which they don't often do. 

mspart

[flyingcement]

Speaking of Oklahoma State - is Mastrogiovanni completely done for the season?  Will he qualify for a medical redshirt if he is done?  

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Something to watch. Nebraska has 3 guys on the edge of qualifying.  The 6 horses will score alot in ncaas. If they get these 3 others in, it could be a big impact on the team race!

Per the 2/19 Coaches Rank

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, BigRedFan said:

How many points would one expect from someone who is only on the edge of qualifying?  If they get a seed below 30, will they likely score much if any?

Just under a point.

But given how tight the race for third, fourth, and fifth appears to be a point or two may make the difference between being on the podium and not.

[Jason Bryant]

1 hour ago, Matthew Burns said:

Regarding Pac 12 tournament AQs...

 

I thought the NCAA was stingy with those allocations on the surface. Dig a little deeper and it makes more sense.

 

I many years the PAC 12 has a 4 man field for an entire weight class. 2 wins and you at league champion. That's a pretty humble march to a title. In fact IIRC Shane Griffin won the PAC 12 title with a single win over Anthony Valencia recently.

At large bids help take care of the rest of that field.

Clearing this bit up.

The Pac-12 may have had a 4-person weight in the past, but it wasn't "many years" - The Pac-12 had 5 teams twice in the modern era and 6 teams since 2012 (save 2018 and 2019). They seed all six, so the top seed will have a semi and a final. 3 wrestles 6 and 4 wrestles 5 in the quarters.  All three previous years Griffith has competed at the tournament, he's had the full six wrestlers in the weight. In 2020, Griffith beat Josh Shields for the title. He'd lost to Wick and Anthony Valencia in his other two finals appearances. 

[Matthew Burns]

3 hours ago, Jason Bryant said:

Clearing this bit up.

The Pac-12 may have had a 4-person weight in the past, but it wasn't "many years" - The Pac-12 had 5 teams twice in the modern era and 6 teams since 2012 (save 2018 and 2019). They seed all six, so the top seed will have a semi and a final. 3 wrestles 6 and 4 wrestles 5 in the quarters.  All three previous years Griffith has competed at the tournament, he's had the full six wrestlers in the weight. In 2020, Griffith beat Josh Shields for the title. He'd lost to Wick and Anthony Valencia in his other two finals appearances. 

"In some years" would have better expressed the point. Thanks, that statement was sloppy.

Currently the member schools with wrestling programs in the PAC 12 total 3. It takes 3 more non member affiliates to round the field to 6. At best it's a 6 man bracket.

The point I tried to make is that a single allocation is not as unfair as it may appear. 

Im a California boy born and bred. I coach at a local high school. Our lone state qualifier went 0-2 and finished out his season today. His effort received zero interest outside the wrestling community. This part of the USA simply doesn't care about wrestling outside of well funded prep programs, or communities with legacy coaches. Until that attitude shifts a single guaranteed spot to the national tournament is all the PAC 12 is worth IMO.

[jajensen09]

6 hours ago, BigRedFan said:

How many points would one expect from someone who is only on the edge of qualifying?  If they get a seed below 30, will they likely score much if any?

Depending on matchups.  They get a couple matches out of big 10s they can pick up a few wins. Maybe 10 team points

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, jajensen09 said:

Depending on matchups.  They get a couple matches out of big 10s they can pick up a few wins. Maybe 10 team points

You may want to temper expectations (yes, I understand the irony of that statement given this audience), but since we went to 33 seeds the three highest scoring 30-33 seeds (out of 120) in aggregate scored 10.5. Maybe 10 points might be aggressive.

For further context 77% score zero points (0-2). Another 15% scored either 0.5 or 1.

[jajensen09]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You may want to temper expectations (yes, I understand the irony of that statement given this audience), but since we went to 33 seeds the three highest scoring 30-33 seeds (out of 120) in aggregate scored 10.5. Maybe 10 points might be aggressive.

For further context 77% score zero points (0-2). Another 15% scored either 0.5 or 1.

Yeah. Look it to big 10 wrestlers though. Not clear data point. Bubba Wilson him self  could win 2 matches

[flyingcement]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You may want to temper expectations (yes, I understand the irony of that statement given this audience), but since we went to 33 seeds the three highest scoring 30-33 seeds (out of 120) in aggregate scored 10.5. Maybe 10 points might be aggressive.

For further context 77% score zero points (0-2). Another 15% scored either 0.5 or 1.

[Wrestleknownothing]

17 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Yeah. Look it to big 10 wrestlers though. Not clear data point. Bubba Wilson him self  could win 2 matches

It gets worse. The top two of those three were non-Big 10. Josh Mason got 3 of those 10.5 last year and Wyatt sheets got 4.5 in 2021.

[flyingcement]

Just now, Wrestleknownothing said:

It gets worse. The top two of those three were non-Big 10. Josh Mason got 3 of those 10.5 last year and Wyatt sheets got 4.5 in 2021.

Dumb question I should know the answer for, but if you earn a pin in the 32 vs 33 match - is that worth the same team bonus points as it would be in another round?  in that sense, the extra match they get against a similarly ranked opponent is a golden chance to get some bonus points that a 31st ranked guy doesn't get

[Wrestleknownothing]

Just now, flyingcement said:

Dumb question I should know the answer for, but if you earn a pin in the 32 vs 33 match - is that worth the same team bonus points as it would be in another round?  in that sense, the extra match they get against a similarly ranked opponent is a golden chance to get some bonus points that a 31st ranked guy doesn't get

Yes. That is how Josh Mason got 3. He pinned #32 in the pigtail.

[flyingcement]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Yes. That is how Josh Mason got 3. He pinned #32 in the pigtail.

Thought so.  Not a bad way to squeeze in a couple extra team points.  I would guess that from a statistical standpoint, maybe only because of Josh Mason, that 32 is a more advantageous rank for team points than 31