Vega... PFP #2?

[BAC]

Sergio Vega #2 on Flo's just-released PFP list:

https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/16146571-2026-27-ncaa-di-wrestling-rankings/56562-p4p-mitchell-mesenbrink

Is it just me, or is that a bit high for him?

[GimJustafan]

i think 2-5 are interchangeable but don't have an issue with Vega @ 2 

 

 

[RandolphTJones]

I'd just put Barr above him. Both dominant Barr more accolades since he's older. 

[BruceyB]

Sergio Vega won a national title over 2x defending champion Jesse Mendez, so obvious he is very very good. But I don't really understand the way some people seem to view him. He is very tricky defensively and I thought he pulled out a couple of wins (at least) last year where he was outwrestled. There were times where guys got about 95% of the way to a match-winning takedown and he was able to just avoid it.

I actually thought Vega was very Dean Heil-esque last season where he does have some offense and typically scored, but he also won by some very narrow margins and if not for some crafty "hang on" defense some matches could have easily been flipped.

The point being that I think it's crazy right now to pick Sergio Vega over the field at 149 going into the season. He may end up being "that guy" but after watching him be unable to generate any semblance of offense against Jesse Mendez, I have a hard time picturing him going up to 149 and navigating a field with Henson, Valencia, Van Ness, and a cast of other talented guys.

I'm hoping I'm wrong. I enjoy watching him and I'm pulling for OKST to reach a level where PSU is no longer on an island, but I think people are projecting a good amount of development when they're predicting Vega to win a weight with two returning national champions.

[alex1fly]

25 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

Sergio Vega won a national title over 2x defending champion Jesse Mendez, so obvious he is very very good. But I don't really understand the way some people seem to view him. He is very tricky defensively and I thought he pulled out a couple of wins (at least) last year where he was outwrestled. There were times where guys got about 95% of the way to a match-winning takedown and he was able to just avoid it.

I actually thought Vega was very Dean Heil-esque last season where he does have some offense and typically scored, but he also won by some very narrow margins and if not for some crafty "hang on" defense some matches could have easily been flipped.

The point being that I think it's crazy right now to pick Sergio Vega over the field at 149 going into the season. He may end up being "that guy" but after watching him be unable to generate any semblance of offense against Jesse Mendez, I have a hard time picturing him going up to 149 and navigating a field with Henson, Valencia, Van Ness, and a cast of other talented guys.

I'm hoping I'm wrong. I enjoy watching him and I'm pulling for OKST to reach a level where PSU is no longer on an island, but I think people are projecting a good amount of development when they're predicting Vega to win a weight with two returning national champions.

He was a stressful guy to watch wrestle, lol. Vega I mean. Oh, and Heil. I think more folks prepare for Vega this year, he'll need to keep it unpredictable.

[BAC]

I'm pretty much where BruceyB is.  Vega is obviously excellent -- undefeated national champ, beat Mendez - but it seems like there's a hype factor here that's elevating him higher than he actually is.

Last season, a good half of his matches were decided by 5 points or less, and he had multiple matches go to OT.  Some of those matches could easily have gone the other way.  Compare that to, say, a guy like Barr, who also was an undefeated champ, but bonused literally everyone he faced, up until the national finals.  I'd have Mesenbrink and Barr as 1.a and 1.b P4P.

Also, in the PFP context, I think it's relevant to look at freestyle. It has its differences but its similar enough, and when someone goes off and makes world teams or wins medals overseas, it tells us that they aren't just good relative to current US college competition, but also relative to past champs, and relative to other countries' top wrestlers. On that score, Vega really hasn't done much. Last time he competed, I think, was U20s last year, where he lost in the quarters to Manville.

Compare that to, say, the top 4 guys at 133.  The same 4 freshmen also finished top 4 at *senior* WTTs.  2 of those 4 freshmen have won Final X to make Senior World teams.  3 of the 4 have won international golds, and we may see a fourth when Davino competes at U23s.  On what basis can one rationally say Vega is P4P better?

Or compare to Barr, who made Final X last year, losing very close matches to eventual world champ Hidlay. Or Liledahl, an undefeated champ like Vega, but also has multiple age-group world golds under his belt, and wins over countless other former NCAA champs in the process.

Even at his own weight, 149, I agree with Brucey that it's far from clear he's better than Van Ness, Henson or Valencia.  Not sure he'd take 141 either as I'd pick Bassett over him, and Stanich is a toss-up at best. 

Honestly the only argument I see is "he beat Mendez." That's a great win, but it was ONE win, and it was in SV.  It doesn't mean he'd beat everyone Mendez has beaten, or that you suddenly hand Mendez's P4P ranking to Vega, any more than you'd hand it to Merrill for beating Hodge winner Parris a few months ago, or Sealey for beating Carr, or to Duke for beating 4x'er Yianni last year.  And, if we're being honest, Mendez lost a bit of his P4P luster anyway, barely squeaking by in SV in the NCAA semis, and again failing to make a world team after. 

To be clear, I'm not saying Vega's down at Manville's level or that he shouldn't be high on the P4P list. He's still an unbeaten defending champ. But objectively, it's a kindness to have Vega P4P top 5 given the immense talent in other weights. And putting him top 2 borders on disrespectful to guys who have proven themselves, over and over, on a P4P level in a way that Vega definitely has not.

Edited August 28 by BAC

[ionel]

37 minutes ago, alex1fly said:

He was a stressful guy to watch wrestle, lol. Vega I mean. Oh, and Heil. I think more folks prepare for Vega this year, he'll need to keep it unpredictable.

I hated watching Heil wrestle but for some reason enjoyed watching Vega. Maybe his walkout music just got me in the mood.  Did anyone take down Vega?   

[MoveCountermove]

It’s a list. Made by people.

[ionel]

37 minutes ago, alex1fly said:

He was a stressful guy to watch wrestle, lol. Vega I mean. Oh, and Heil. I think more folks prepare for Vega this year, he'll need to keep it unpredictable.

I hated watching Heil wrestle but for some reason enjoyed watching Vega. Maybe his walkout music just got me in the mood.  Did anyone take down Vega?   

[Gantry]

I'm pretty sure Vega did not give up a TD all season. True freshman national champ who was never taken down and beat a 2x champ to win his title. Have either of those ever been done before by a true freshman? 

Edited August 28 by Gantry

[BAC]

15 minutes ago, ionel said:

I hated watching Heil wrestle but for some reason enjoyed watching Vega. Maybe his walkout music just got me in the mood.  Did anyone take down Vega?   

What I like about watching Vega is he's always smiling, like there's no place he'd rather be.  It's so genuine, that it's almost infectious. And despite the low offensive output, when he mixes it up with guys who like to scramble (e.g. Hardy) it does get fun.  I know I'm dissing the P4P ranking, but Vega as a wrestler is a pleasure to watch. 

[MoveCountermove]

16 minutes ago, Gantry said:

I'm pretty sure Vega did not give up a TD all season. True freshman national champ who was never taken down and beat a 2x champ to win his title. Have either of those ever been done before by a true freshman? 

It may not matter, but he also beat 2x national champ in Jesse Mendez, who has an insane motor and does put up points. Just pointing out he didn’t beat a guy who trades escapes and likes to wait until there is short time to score on stalling or a late TD…the Kevin Jackson method

[Le duke]

I'd have Jax higher than Vega. 

Yes, Vega beat Mendez, but the quality of the 133 field was much, much higher.

 

[ionel]

40 minutes ago, BAC said:

What I like about watching Vega is he's always smiling, like there's no place he'd rather be.  It's so genuine, that it's almost infectious.

[OMW]

#2 looks right for Vega.

Only wrestler to put a "L" on Mendez in college last year and his ability to win those close ones - or matches that he looked to have been outwrestled - in factors into it as he has that ability to "just win, baby!".

It's not Barr's fault, but 197 wasn't as strong as 141 last season.

[MoveCountermove]

Guys I think will be “big” risers from each weight:

125 - Cortez

133 - Ungar

141 - Manville (HM: Frezza)

149 - Larkin (14 feels low…could R16, could be mid level AA)

157 - Hipolito/Swensen

165 - Nininger

174 - Burton

184 - Jake Dailey

197 - Correa

HWT - Merrill

Tried to pick guys that had a lot of potential for upward movement but also didn’t want to pick too many from the same team, but sort of failed there, but that’s what stopped me from picking both Cortez brothers

[MoveCountermove]

2 hours ago, BAC said:

I'm pretty much where BruceyB is.  Vega is obviously excellent -- undefeated national champ, beat Mendez - but it seems like there's a hype factor here that's elevating him higher than he actually is.

Last season, a good half of his matches were decided by 5 points or less, and he had multiple matches go to OT.  Some of those matches could easily have gone the other way.  Compare that to, say, a guy like Barr, who also was an undefeated champ, but bonused literally everyone he faced, up until the national finals.  I'd have Mesenbrink and Barr as 1.a and 1.b P4P.

Also, in the PFP context, I think it's relevant to look at freestyle. It has its differences but its similar enough, and when someone goes off and makes world teams or wins medals overseas, it tells us that they aren't just good relative to current US college competition, but also relative to past champs, and relative to other countries' top wrestlers. On that score, Vega really hasn't done much. Last time he competed, I think, was U20s last year, where he lost in the quarters to Manville.

Compare that to, say, the top 4 guys at 133.  The same 4 freshmen also finished top 4 at *senior* WTTs.  2 of those 4 freshmen have won Final X to make Senior World teams.  3 of the 4 have won international golds, and we may see a fourth when Davino competes at U23s.  On what basis can one rationally say Vega is P4P better?

Or compare to Barr, who made Final X last year, losing very close matches to eventual world champ Hidlay. Or Liledahl, an undefeated champ like Vega, but also has multiple age-group world golds under his belt, and wins over countless other former NCAA champs in the process.

Even at his own weight, 149, I agree with Brucey that it's far from clear he's better than Van Ness, Henson or Valencia.  Not sure he'd take 141 either as I'd pick Bassett over him, and Stanich is a toss-up at best. 

Honestly the only argument I see is "he beat Mendez." That's a great win, but it was ONE win, and it was in SV.  It doesn't mean he'd beat everyone Mendez has beaten, or that you suddenly hand Mendez's P4P ranking to Vega, any more than you'd hand it to Merrill for beating Hodge winner Parris a few months ago, or Sealey for beating Carr, or to Duke for beating 4x'er Yianni last year.  And, if we're being honest, Mendez lost a bit of his P4P luster anyway, barely squeaking by in SV in the NCAA semis, and again failing to make a world team after. 

To be clear, I'm not saying Vega's down at Manville's level or that he shouldn't be high on the P4P list. He's still an unbeaten defending champ. But objectively, it's a kindness to have Vega P4P top 5 given the immense talent in other weights. And putting him top 2 borders on disrespectful to guys who have proven themselves, over and over, on a P4P level in a way that Vega definitely has not.

I don’t see how you can put weight into freestyle success when ranking college athletes for college competition. I get what it suggests, and why we would discuss it when talking about comparisons amongst ourselves, but I think you very distinctly need to ignore that for this ranking. If this were a ranking for these athletes overall, against all competition, I would agree with you. But it’s ranking them for the college season against the field of college athletes, and in folkstyle. I just think it doesn’t apply for the exact reasons it’s not being used, but also not fully ignored either.

[jackwebster]

3 hours ago, BAC said:

 Vega is obviously excellent -- undefeated national champ, beat Mendez - but it seems like there's a hype factor here that's elevating him higher than he actually is.

Last season, a good half of his matches were decided by 5 points or less, and he had multiple matches go to OT.  Some of those matches could easily have gone the other way. 

Honestly the only argument I see is "he beat Mendez." That's a great win, but it was ONE win, and it was in SV.  

I posted something similar after NCAAs and more-or-less agree, esp w/ BB's point about potential issues at 149.

However, his match scores are kinda misleading. Consider the Mendez match. He had to win in SV, but was he ever really in danger? After the early stall call, Vega dictated the pace and what positions they would wrestle in. 

[alex1fly]

2 hours ago, MoveCountermove said:

I don’t see how you can put weight into freestyle success when ranking college athletes for college competition. I get what it suggests, and why we would discuss it when talking about comparisons amongst ourselves, but I think you very distinctly need to ignore that for this ranking. If this were a ranking for these athletes overall, against all competition, I would agree with you. But it’s ranking them for the college season against the field of college athletes, and in folkstyle. I just think it doesn’t apply for the exact reasons it’s not being used, but also not fully ignored either.

+1

Freestyle success doesn't translate into folkstyle success. Also the freestyle season is quite different in terms of how they prepare and compete. Freestyle results are interesting but that's about it in regards to folkstyle.

[500 wrestler]

Vega also beat Brock Hardy 3x last year. Hardy was close to winning it all the year prior, and he game Braeden Davis a tummy rub, that’s gotta be worth something. 

[Simpleman424]

Let’s be honest here…we have an issue with him at #2 because he doesn’t look like a prototypical wrestler at all. I’m not even a big guy but if he tried to start a fight in the streets with me I’d probably laugh. 

[MoveCountermove]

12 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said:

Let’s be honest here…we have an issue with him at #2 because he doesn’t look like a prototypical wrestler at all. I’m not even a big guy but if he tried to start a fight in the streets with me I’d probably laugh. 

He absolutely looks like the one you pick to fight in the friend group when they are running their mouths, agreed. I like it that much more, I think. 

[Simpleman424]

32 minutes ago, MoveCountermove said:

He absolutely looks like the one you pick to fight in the friend group when they are running their mouths, agreed. I like it that much more, I think. 

He immediately makes me think of Vincenzo Joseph…every time I’d watch that guy wrestle it messed with my head a little. Fat BJ Penn in the UFC too…there’s quite a few examples I can think of that blatantly go against what seemed possible.

[MPhillips]

23 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said:

Fat BJ Penn

[Simpleman424]

10 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Sorry I could have worded that a little more sensitive but…I mean we all know