Vega... PFP #2?

[BAC]

4 hours ago, MoveCountermove said:

I don’t see how you can put weight into freestyle success when ranking college athletes for college competition. I get what it suggests, and why we would discuss it when talking about comparisons amongst ourselves, but I think you very distinctly need to ignore that for this ranking. If this were a ranking for these athletes overall, against all competition, I would agree with you. But it’s ranking them for the college season against the field of college athletes, and in folkstyle. I just think it doesn’t apply for the exact reasons it’s not being used, but also not fully ignored either.

I'd agree with you when ranking the individual weights.  But not for P4P rankings.  Otherwise, how on earth do you do it?

There's just no way to compare people across weights who haven't wrestled each other, at least not with any semblance of objectivity. You need freestyle to compare how current guys are faring against yesteryear's champs, and against the best guys overseas.  That's the best way to see evaluate who's a strong champ vs a weaker champ. Otherwise it becomes an eyeball test (and NCAA placement), and nothing more.

I'd bet my right arm that Kozak considered freestyle results in doing his list, implicitly if not explicitly.  Over two-thirds of his top 20 PFP have international medals, most gold.  Otherwise a guy like Marcus Blaze is just a one-time 4th-place finisher, and Duke a one-time 3d placer -- hardly P4P material, yet there they are.

For individual weights, yes, make it folk-only -- there's plenty to work from, and we have separate weight-specific rankings for free (and greco).  But for P4P, everything's fair game, as it should be.

Edited August 28 by BAC

[boconnell]

10 hours ago, BAC said:

Sergio Vega #2 on Flo's just-released PFP list:

https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/16146571-2026-27-ncaa-di-wrestling-rankings/56562-p4p-mitchell-mesenbrink

Is it just me, or is that a bit high for him?

It probably depends a lot on how you viewed Mendez.  

[boconnell]

9 hours ago, BruceyB said:

Sergio Vega won a national title over 2x defending champion Jesse Mendez, so obvious he is very very good. But I don't really understand the way some people seem to view him. He is very tricky defensively and I thought he pulled out a couple of wins (at least) last year where he was outwrestled. There were times where guys got about 95% of the way to a match-winning takedown and he was able to just avoid it.

I actually thought Vega was very Dean Heil-esque last season where he does have some offense and typically scored, but he also won by some very narrow margins and if not for some crafty "hang on" defense some matches could have easily been flipped.

The point being that I think it's crazy right now to pick Sergio Vega over the field at 149 going into the season. He may end up being "that guy" but after watching him be unable to generate any semblance of offense against Jesse Mendez, I have a hard time picturing him going up to 149 and navigating a field with Henson, Valencia, Van Ness, and a cast of other talented guys.

I'm hoping I'm wrong. I enjoy watching him and I'm pulling for OKST to reach a level where PSU is no longer on an island, but I think people are projecting a good amount of development when they're predicting Vega to win a weight with two returning national champions.

You've got some good stuff mixed with some weird takes.

Vega definitely wrestles close.  He definitely had more close matches than the guys beneath him in the P4P rankings.  You could definitely put him lower.  I would.  I also wouldn't pick him over the field.

But where are you getting the idea he generated no semblance of offense against Mendez?  He literally took him down.  That's a lot more than a semblance.

Also I think you can absolutely predict a national champ to win a national championship without projecting development.  But it's also very easy to project the 19 year old developing.  None of the cast of talented guys is more talented than Mendez.  None of them have done any more than Vega has.  He's probably a reasonable favorite coming off an undefeated national title where nobody scored a TD all season against him.  Or at worst a co-favorite.  

[MoveCountermove]

3 hours ago, BAC said:

I'd agree with you when ranking the individual weights.  But not for P4P rankings.  Otherwise, how on earth do you do it?

There's just no way to compare people across weights who haven't wrestled each other, at least not with any semblance of objectivity. You need freestyle to compare how current guys are faring against yesteryear's champs, and against the best guys overseas.  That's the best way to see evaluate who's a strong champ vs a weaker champ. Otherwise it becomes an eyeball test (and NCAA placement), and nothing more.

I'd bet my right arm that Kozak considered freestyle results in doing his list, implicitly if not explicitly.  Over two-thirds of his top 20 PFP have international medals, most gold.  Otherwise a guy like Marcus Blaze is just a one-time 4th-place finisher, and Duke a one-time 3d placer -- hardly P4P material, yet there they are.

For individual weights, yes, make it folk-only -- there's plenty to work from, and we have separate weight-specific rankings for free (and greco).  But for P4P, everything's fair game, as it should be.

I understand and did not say that the list did not include freestyle results/entire career merits. I fully believe that he considered free when making his list and would not take you up on that bet because I feel that confidently about it. There is definitely projection with freshman and guys like the aforementioned Blaze and Duke, but I still do not agree that freestyle accolades should be considered a part of ranking a list for folkstyle wrestlers.

If the list was a freestyle P4P list and a kid who won in folk but was more middling in freestyle was being pumped up, people would be outraged. I don't see how the opposite doesn't hold serve. Not to mention they are both different types of the same sport with different scoring, rules, and overall objectives. My counter point is that if PJ Duke and Marcus Blaze were as good as their freestyle resumes suggest (I believe they are, that's not the point I'm making), then they should have each won national titles and finished with few or no losses. I don't think that's outlandish to say. How can I elevate your ranking on a P4P list if you didn't even win your weight? It's college wrestling, the end goal is a National Title, not the U20 World Team or the Olympics or any of the chases for freestyle. It gets discussed here all the time how Folkstyle ends with college, and couldn't be more obvious with RAF taking off. I just think it's nonsensical to project someone's ability in this sport style when using their resume from another style entirely. 

[BruceyB]

3 hours ago, boconnell said:

You've got some good stuff mixed with some weird takes.

Vega definitely wrestles close.  He definitely had more close matches than the guys beneath him in the P4P rankings.  You could definitely put him lower.  I would.  I also wouldn't pick him over the field.

But where are you getting the idea he generated no semblance of offense against Mendez?  He literally took him down.  That's a lot more than a semblance.

Also I think you can absolutely predict a national champ to win a national championship without projecting development.  But it's also very easy to project the 19 year old developing.  None of the cast of talented guys is more talented than Mendez.  None of them have done any more than Vega has.  He's probably a reasonable favorite coming off an undefeated national title where nobody scored a TD all season against him.  Or at worst a co-favorite.  

I don't necessarily disagree with anything that you said other than the comment about Vega generating offense against Mendez. I don't consider him scoring a takedown by sitting the corner off of Mendez' shot generating offense. You can use defensive maneuvers to score, but I don't consider that offense. I'm just saying that I saw nothing in that finals match that made me think that Vega could initiate and secure a takedown against Mendez. That being said, no one was able to initiate and secure a takedown against Vega all season. I just have some serious trepidation about whether or not Sergio will be able to find the same success if he wrestles the same way against larger and stronger opponents at 149 this season.

I think there is also a high likelihood that Sergio has jumped levels in this offseason and will be a much more dynamic wrestler than he was as a true freshmen, especially since he made huge strides in the months between his senior year of HS and first season in college.

For the record, I am rooting for Vega to go undefeated and win it all again. 

[boconnell]

48 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

I don't necessarily disagree with anything that you said other than the comment about Vega generating offense against Mendez. I don't consider him scoring a takedown by sitting the corner off of Mendez' shot generating offense. You can use defensive maneuvers to score, but I don't consider that offense. I'm just saying that I saw nothing in that finals match that made me think that Vega could initiate and secure a takedown against Mendez. That being said, no one was able to initiate and secure a takedown against Vega all season. I just have some serious trepidation about whether or not Sergio will be able to find the same success if he wrestles the same way against larger and stronger opponents at 149 this season.

I think there is also a high likelihood that Sergio has jumped levels in this offseason and will be a much more dynamic wrestler than he was as a true freshmen, especially since he made huge strides in the months between his senior year of HS and first season in college.

For the record, I am rooting for Vega to go undefeated and win it all again. 

I think guys can absolutely generate counter offense.  I think Mendez wrestled his entire match to avoid that exact position.  His whole gameplan and every action was to not be there.  And he still ended up there.  I think it's because Vega wrestled in a way that made him be there.  Vega dictated the match until it went where he wanted, and then he did exactly what he wanted when it went where he wanted.  I absolutely call that generating offense.  

But it's okay if you don't think counter offense is generative.  We can disagree.  I think lots of young Americans have gotten incredible at forcing counter offense on their opponent by winning the handfighting and dictating what happens and where it happens.  I think in that match Vega made the match go where it went.  I don't think Mendez chose to go there.  I think Vega took away every other option and forced him where he wanted him.  

[ionel]

9 hours ago, BruceyB said:

 I don't consider him scoring a takedown by sitting the corner off of Mendez' shot generating offense.

Would you consider pinning Hardy as generating offense?  Guess we could argue he was avoiding the takedown and avoiding going into period two and three.   

[MNRodent]

I think Vega deserves the #2 PFP based on last season.  I enjoy watching him wrestle, but I do think opponents will "figure out" his style a little better this season, and he takes a few losses now that he has the target on him and is more well scouted.

[Ricketycricket]

Kyle Larkin beat 2 National champs last year (Valencia, Robideau). Mentioned of Flo Live yesterday. 

[BruceyB]

9 hours ago, boconnell said:

I think guys can absolutely generate counter offense.  I think Mendez wrestled his entire match to avoid that exact position.  His whole gameplan and every action was to not be there.  And he still ended up there.  I think it's because Vega wrestled in a way that made him be there.  Vega dictated the match until it went where he wanted, and then he did exactly what he wanted when it went where he wanted.  I absolutely call that generating offense.  

But it's okay if you don't think counter offense is generative.  We can disagree.  I think lots of young Americans have gotten incredible at forcing counter offense on their opponent by winning the handfighting and dictating what happens and where it happens.  I think in that match Vega made the match go where it went.  I don't think Mendez chose to go there.  I think Vega took away every other option and forced him where he wanted him.  

Again, I agree with the majority of what you're saying, and now, I think it's a bit more semantical than anything. I'm not really interested in the philosophical debate about what it means to "generate offense." I'm rooting for Serg, but he has a style that I'd like to see perform up a weight class before I pick him to win a weight with two other National Champions and a 3x top 3 finisher.

[H82Lose]

22 hours ago, MoveCountermove said:

Guys I think will be “big” risers from each weight:

125 - Cortez

133 - Ungar

141 - Manville (HM: Frezza)

149 - Larkin (14 feels low…could R16, could be mid level AA)

157 - Hipolito/Swensen

165 - Nininger

174 - Burton

184 - Jake Dailey

197 - Correa

HWT - Merrill

Tried to pick guys that had a lot of potential for upward movement but also didn’t want to pick too many from the same team, but sort of failed there, but that’s what stopped me from picking both Cortez brothers

Define "rising" for Manville. As in rise to AA? Not being a D*ck, truly asking where you think he ends up. 

[LJB]

Manville could 100% AA in the next 3 years...

he beat Suriano at the open and totally piss pounded desmond this year leg grabbing...

obviously decent success in greco as well in the past...

but, he will definitely have to change some aspects of his wrestling and as much i like that kid as a wrestler and a person, he has not changed his style since i first started watching him when he was like 8U...

[jackwebster]

12 hours ago, BruceyB said:

I don't consider him scoring a takedown by sitting the corner off of Mendez' shot generating offense. You can use defensive maneuvers to score, but I don't consider that offense. I'm just saying that I saw nothing in that finals match that made me think that Vega could initiate and secure a takedown against Mendez.

Im just going to echo what bc and ionel said with a clarification: Vega did initiate the takedown by dictating what positions they would wrestle in. In fact, he dictated position the entire match after the first stall call. By frustrating Mendez's handfight for ~4 min, Vega eventually made Mendez shoot. Vega forced Mendez to shoot twice when it looked like that was the last thing Mendez wanted to do. 

[MoveCountermove]

1 hour ago, H82Lose said:

Define "rising" for Manville. As in rise to AA? Not being a D*ck, truly asking where you think he ends up. 

No worries, I always appreciate the discourse.
 

Of the 24 wrestlers listed in the rankings, at his weight, I think Manville ends up rising the most spots, ie being the most mis-ranked of his weight. I think it’s a make or break year for him, and he has plenty of talent. I don’t think he will break through and AA, but if he’s on an expected trajectory, I could see him making it to blood rounds or something like that, 70% win rate or something. Better than 10 or so people on the list ahead of him (please, please don’t make me try to pick the 10). I put Frezza in a similar space, I think he could make a run if he stays consistent throughout - tall task for anyone

[Simpleman424]

30 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

Im just going to echo what bc and ionel said with a clarification: Vega did initiate the takedown by dictating what positions they would wrestle in. In fact, he dictated position the entire match after the first stall call. By frustrating Mendez's handfight for ~4 min, Vega eventually made Mendez shoot. Vega forced Mendez to shoot twice when it looked like that was the last thing Mendez wanted to do. 

I highly doubt the last thing Mendez wanted to do was the first thing he always wants to do…and he does extremely well. Vega didn’t “force” anything…Mendez could have just let him stall again. Some people wrestle to win and some people “wrestle” to not lose…sometimes those guys come out on top.

[jackwebster]

2 hours ago, Simpleman424 said:

I highly doubt the last thing Mendez wanted to do was the first thing he always wants to do…and he does extremely well. Vega didn’t “force” anything…Mendez could have just let him stall again. Some people wrestle to win and some people “wrestle” to not lose…sometimes those guys come out on top.

If you say so, but then he didnt do what he always does (extremely) well until the 3rd period

[Simpleman424]

2 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

If you say so, but then he didnt do what he always does (extremely) well until the 3rd period

You’re not making the point you think you’re making…

[jackwebster]

41 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said:

You’re not making the point you think you’re making…

If you say so

[boconnell]

3 hours ago, Simpleman424 said:

I highly doubt the last thing Mendez wanted to do was the first thing he always wants to do…and he does extremely well. Vega didn’t “force” anything…Mendez could have just let him stall again. Some people wrestle to win and some people “wrestle” to not lose…sometimes those guys come out on top.

Did you watch the match?  Mendez treated Vega like he was poisonous.  Vega was the only one to attempt to touch a leg in the first 7 minutes.  Mendez did everything he could to avoid shooting.  And for good reason, considering the moment he tried to shoot he was put in immediate danger.  

Mendez is an extremely aggressive wrestler, but characterizing him in that match as "wrestling to win" is either absurd homerism or a total lack of wrestling knowledge.  

Vega wasn't aggressive either in the match.  He tried to create scrambles with his own half shots and aside from that just waited to counter on his feet.  I have no issue if you want to describe him as passive in the match.  He's a counter wrestler for sure.  Just don't indulge in the fantasy that Mendez was anything but passive.  

[Simpleman424]

1 hour ago, boconnell said:

Did you watch the match?  Mendez treated Vega like he was poisonous.  Vega was the only one to attempt to touch a leg in the first 7 minutes.  Mendez did everything he could to avoid shooting.  And for good reason, considering the moment he tried to shoot he was put in immediate danger.  

Mendez is an extremely aggressive wrestler, but characterizing him in that match as "wrestling to win" is either absurd homerism or a total lack of wrestling knowledge.  

Vega wasn't aggressive either in the match.  He tried to create scrambles with his own half shots and aside from that just waited to counter on his feet.  I have no issue if you want to describe him as passive in the match.  He's a counter wrestler for sure.  Just don't indulge in the fantasy that Mendez was anything but passive.  

You guys might want to rewatch. After man handling him the first 40 seconds, pushing him out, Vega hit for stalling THEN he’s working on the go around…

If you think Jesse is passive…makes me wonder what you think he’s trying to set up and do the whole match. 
 

 

[Simpleman424]

Yea I didn’t want to watch that again but Vega was not the aggressor in that match. He reached for the legs and couple times on some half hearted attempts to use his awkward length but he was not in control. Jesse almost had it at the end of the third off a shot and the points in SV came off a Jesse double that switched to a single…that he finishes 9 times out of 10.

[ionel]

1 hour ago, Simpleman424 said:

You guys might want to rewatch. After man handling him the first 40 seconds, pushing him out, Vega hit for stalling THEN he’s working on the go around…

If you think Jesse is passive…makes me wonder what you think he’s trying to set up and do the whole match. 
 

 

Watched it again.  All I rember is:

What did I miss?  

Again a cradle is an offensive move no?  Vega aggressively stuck to his game plan.  

[Simpleman424]

5 minutes ago, ionel said:

Watched it again.  All I rember is:

What did I miss?  

Again a cradle is an offensive move no?  Vega aggressively stuck to his game plan.  

A cradle? Did you start tailgating without us?! Aggressively stayed on his game plan to wrestle not to lose and if he pray for a miracle…I guess that’s a game plan. Seriously thought we got people saying Jesse was passive and Vega made him do stuff…crazy. Jesse did what he’s admitted he’s done in the past by second guessing his shot timing and tried to bully him around…which he did but didn’t finish. Jesse lost this one more than Vega controlled the match. He capitalized on a shot he again didn’t instigate and came out on top. Can’t take that away from him but I like to be realistic…

[ionel]

20 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said:

A cradle? Did you start tailgating without us?! 

Its summer time.  I don't have to wait for you guys.  Pretty sure that was JB who said it was locked up ... pretty early in the finals for him to be drinking but ... 

Edited August 29 by ionel

[Simpleman424]

30 minutes ago, ionel said:

It’s summer time.  I don't have to wait for you guys.  Pretty sure that was JB who said it was locked up ... pretty early in the finals for him to be drinking but ... 

Oldest is back in school now…summer is dead to us in this house.