Rocco Welsh is the reason PSU will win the title in 2027

[Spladle]

21 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said:

And the blatant PSU delusion in this thread begins…lol

The starting lineups are very close, the only thing with a significant depth is depth…that is clearly in Penn States favor

This thread title is saying Rocco Welsh the only reason PSU wins a natty in 2027 when in reality it won’t be close, yet again. With or without Welsh. 

Edited May 2 by Spladle

[Simpleman424]

40 minutes ago, Spladle said:

This thread title is saying Rocco Welsh the only reason PSU wins a natty in 2027 when in reality it won’t be close, yet again. With or without Welsh. 

The title is wrong as well. Penn State will win again, as the should, but this is a game of matchups/seeding. Oklahoma State will pick up more of those 1-2 seeds and have paths similar to what Penn State gets every year. Penn State isn’t the only ones who can bonus point 33 and mid seed guys. It’s going to be a lot closer than people think…

[boconnell]

23 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Vega up at 149 against SVN is a toss-up.  Forrest and Blaze are a toss-up.  Don't be an idiot and try to refute that.

It's classic that you think Forrest and Blaze are a tossup.  I'd love to see your response if someone declared an undefeated PSU champ a tossup with the guy who got 4th.  

[JMill]

4 minutes ago, boconnell said:

It's classic that you think Forrest and Blaze are a tossup.  I'd love to see your response if someone declared an undefeated PSU champ a tossup with the guy who got 4th.  

The OP has Mesenbrink only winning by decision over a guy who didn’t even make R12. That’s far more audacious than saying a match between Blaze and Forrest is a toss up. 

[Hammerlock3]

1 hour ago, boconnell said:

It's classic that you think Forrest and Blaze are a tossup.  I'd love to see your response if someone declared an undefeated PSU champ a tossup with the guy who got 4th.  

i'd be careful barking up this tree, it got me called an idiot 5 times, which was odd cause all I did was ask him if we could determine who was correct with future results. 

[MPhillips]

[Hammerlock3]

4 hours ago, Spladle said:

lol, PSU blows OSU out with or without Welsh. 

No, cause Cael won't show up.

[Simpleman424]

1 hour ago, boconnell said:

It's classic that you think Forrest and Blaze are a tossup.  I'd love to see your response if someone declared an undefeated PSU champ a tossup with the guy who got 4th.  

They are closer to a toss up than they aren’t…Forrest offense is what gives him the slight advantage. Blaze can’t rely on his “defense” like he did this past year…he gets more aggressive the match is a definite toss up

[boconnell]

12 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said:

They are closer to a toss up than they aren’t…Forrest offense is what gives him the slight advantage. Blaze can’t rely on his “defense” like he did this past year…he gets more aggressive the match is a definite toss up

I agree that if the guy who got 4th gets better and improves in areas of wrestling, the gap between him and the undefeated champ will close.  

[Simpleman424]

1 hour ago, boconnell said:

I agree that if the guy who got 4th gets better and improves in areas of wrestling, the gap between him and the undefeated champ will close.  

The gap we’re talking about is already minimal…that’s the point. People want to stick to 50/50 is a toss up but Forrest would be favored by what? Give him a 60 percent chance to win…that’s still basically a toss up. Not sure why we’re acting like Forrest is a god send here and untouchable…I like the kid but did you watch the Open? He had a good run on a short season and fresh legs…good. I didn’t say get better or improve (they all can) I said use what he already has…pretending Blaze can’t wrestle on Jax level is silly…

[boconnell]

17 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said:

The gap we’re talking about is already minimal…that’s the point. People want to stick to 50/50 is a toss up but Forrest would be favored by what? Give him a 60 percent chance to win…that’s still basically a toss up. Not sure why we’re acting like Forrest is a god send here and untouchable…I like the kid but did you watch the Open? He had a good run on a short season and fresh legs…good. I didn’t say get better or improve (they all can) I said use what he already has…pretending Blaze can’t wrestle on Jax level is silly…

What's silly is ignoring what happened in folkstyle matches for what happened in freestyle matches. 

What's even sillier is pretending the short season was an advantage for Forrest.  

[1032004]

6 hours ago, boconnell said:

What's silly is ignoring what happened in folkstyle matches for what happened in freestyle matches. 

What's even sillier is pretending the short season was an advantage for Forrest.  

Well allegedly Blaze had the flu at NCAA’s.  And more importantly, they didn’t wrestle each other this year so I definitely wouldn’t assume Jax wins since matchups make matches.  Jax however would be the favorite based on being the champ this year.

[1032004]

10 hours ago, JMill said:

The OP has Mesenbrink only winning by decision over a guy who didn’t even make R12. That’s far more audacious than saying a match between Blaze and Forrest is a toss up. 

You’re kinda downplaying Lockett there IMO but I do agree Mesenbrink bonuses him.  Even if it’s a tech though based on OP’s scenario OK State still wins 18-15.

I doubt it happens like that, but I think the picks are fair.

[1032004]

On 5/1/2026 at 11:12 PM, Husker_Du said:

I'd place a wager to say 4 of the starters in this hypothetical dual will be different. 

Kasak at 157 for PSU (think you’d still have to default to the champ though)?

Vega redshirting?

A Raney at 141?

In this made up scenario we’re assuming Welsh at 184 for OK State and Ryder at 184 for PSU, so not sure if you’re counting Berge in your comment?  I guess the other question in regards to the OP is that with no Welsh and Ryder still there, he would also likely be challenged by guy like Mirasola and/or Cunningham, although you’d still have to default to Welsh.

Edited May 3 by 1032004

[nhs67]

12 hours ago, Hammerlock3 said:

i'd be careful barking up this tree, it got me called an idiot 5 times, which was odd cause all I did was ask him if we could determine who was correct with future results. 

Because you are an idiot.

There is a difference.

[Ricketycricket]

2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

You’re kinda downplaying Lockett there IMO but I do agree Mesenbrink bonuses him.  Even if it’s a tech though based on OP’s scenario OK State still wins 18-15.

I doubt it happens like that, but I think the picks are fair.

Lockett will spend 5 minutes on all 4s and walking slowly back to the mat to prevent a major. 

[scourge165]

On 5/1/2026 at 6:54 PM, nhs67 said:

Vega up at 149 against SVN is a toss-up.  Forrest and Blaze are a toss-up.  Don't be an idiot and try to refute that.

Well shit, I guess I'm going to be an "idiot" and try and refute that!

I don't see how you can say that Blaze and Jax are a "toss-up" at this point. 

Jax looks like a pretty strong favorite at '33(though I thought he was going '41). 

If we're just saying "could win," equals toss up... well, then I'd say Spratley and Lillendahl is a toss-up. 


I would guess though, if we're going to 5 in 5, that'd mean Duke and Kasak would be in the lineup. 

 

20 hours ago, Ricketycricket said:

Definitely room for discussion at 157. I would take Duke in the rematch. 

I don't think Duke will lose another match, but isn't this kinda a 'if everything fell right' type discussion? 

We're also just picking from this group. I'd probably pick... Kasak at '57 and if the 5 for 5 goes through... I don't think Duke at '74 is a reach. You'd also probably have Ono in there. 

Kinda seems like the OSU lineup is maxed out(for now) and the PSU lineup is... well, there could be an upgrade yet. 

Lillendahl
Ono
Blaze
Van Ness
Kasak
Messenbrink
Duke
Welsh
Barr
Mirasola

How's that matche up vs Oklahoma State?

 

[scourge165]

9 hours ago, Simpleman424 said:

The gap we’re talking about is already minimal…that’s the point. People want to stick to 50/50 is a toss up but Forrest would be favored by what? Give him a 60 percent chance to win…that’s still basically a toss up. Not sure why we’re acting like Forrest is a god send here and untouchable…I like the kid but did you watch the Open? He had a good run on a short season and fresh legs…good. I didn’t say get better or improve (they all can) I said use what he already has…pretending Blaze can’t wrestle on Jax level is silly…

Guys take big jumps(though the kid who started last year would seem likely to take the bigger jump)... so Blaze could really change up his style, work on his offense.

 

The versions of these two we just saw? I think Jax wins 8 or 9 of 10 times. 
I don't know how Vega does with Van Ness. That's... with the length... it's certainly interesting. 

[Simpleman424]

3 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Well allegedly Blaze had the flu at NCAA’s.  And more importantly, they didn’t wrestle each other this year so I definitely wouldn’t assume Jax wins since matchups make matches.  Jax however would be the favorite based on being the champ this year.

That’s important context…I’m not a Penn State guy at all just not big on throwing fourth place out there like it’s with the peasants in a weight class like that.  If he did have the flu that’s even more impressive.

[JMill]

2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

You’re kinda downplaying Lockett there IMO but I do agree Mesenbrink bonuses him.  Even if it’s a tech though based on OP’s scenario OK State still wins 18-15.

I doubt it happens like that, but I think the picks are fair.

Obviously, but just simplifying it as Forrest being an undefeated champ and Blaze just being some random 4th placer is far more disingenuous, given the depth of the weight class, their history, etc. Forrest might be a -110 favorite over Blaze (pretty much a toss-up).

[scorenomore]

59 minutes ago, scourge165 said:

Well shit, I guess I'm going to be an "idiot" and try and refute that!

I don't see how you can say that Blaze and Jax are a "toss-up" at this point. 

Jax looks like a pretty strong favorite at '33(though I thought he was going '41). 

If we're just saying "could win," equals toss up... well, then I'd say Spratley and Lillendahl is a toss-up. 


I would guess though, if we're going to 5 in 5, that'd mean Duke and Kasak would be in the lineup. 

 

I don't think Duke will lose another match, but isn't this kinda a 'if everything fell right' type discussion? 

We're also just picking from this group. I'd probably pick... Kasak at '57 and if the 5 for 5 goes through... I don't think Duke at '74 is a reach. You'd also probably have Ono in there. 

Kinda seems like the OSU lineup is maxed out(for now) and the PSU lineup is... well, there could be an upgrade yet. 

Lillendahl
Ono
Blaze
Van Ness
Kasak
Messenbrink
Duke
Welsh
Barr
Mirasola

How's that matche up vs Oklahoma State?

 

https://tinyurl.com/27u7pzp3

[Caveira]

11 hours ago, Simpleman424 said:

The gap we’re talking about is already minimal…that’s the point. People want to stick to 50/50 is a toss up but Forrest would be favored by what? Give him a 60 percent chance to win…that’s still basically a toss up. Not sure why we’re acting like Forrest is a god send here and untouchable…I like the kid but did you watch the Open? He had a good run on a short season and fresh legs…good. I didn’t say get better or improve (they all can) I said use what he already has…pretending Blaze can’t wrestle on Jax level is silly…

The open isn’t even the same sport 

[Simpleman424]

36 minutes ago, Caveira said:

The open isn’t even the same sport 

Correct. There is some cross over though, especially with young guys who rely heavily on their folkstyle strengths. This whole thread has turned into people trying to pick a word or obvious point out and try to get people…smh

[scourge165]

1 hour ago, scorenomore said:

https://tinyurl.com/27u7pzp3

So you can't put Duke at '74 because he's not listed at '74? Because I think he would major Facundo and I think Ono-Forrest is an actual toss-up. A 50/50 match, though we have to see it in Folkstyle and we're giving Okie State the benefit of the doubt.

I think this is... good. If I was actually picking, I think I'm going Duke over Robideau or Kasak over Robideau(for some reason I thought Kasak only had one year left). 


Also, IF this 5 for 5 starts next year, what are the chances White can win the spot at 184? He seems like his learning curve is steep enough... he may be the guy by the end of the year. 

[Caveira]

3 minutes ago, scourge165 said:

So you can't put Duke at '74 because he's not listed at '74? Because I think he would major Facundo and I think Ono-Forrest is an actual toss-up. A 50/50 match, though we have to see it in Folkstyle and we're giving Okie State the benefit of the doubt.

I think this is... good. If I was actually picking, I think I'm going Duke over Robideau or Kasak over Robideau(for some reason I thought Kasak only had one year left). 


Also, IF this 5 for 5 starts next year, what are the chances White can win the spot at 184? He seems like his learning curve is steep enough... he may be the guy by the end of the year. 

An undefeated national champion is a toss up with a person who has never competed in this sport.  
 

Ok.