Saw this on HVI, worth a read. This person likely paid attention during their 7th Grade Probability Unit:
Here's an email from a buddy of mine concurring with my argument that Penn State losing nationals is not only virtually impossible but would be the biggest upset in the history of college sports (makes Michigan losing to App State look like nothing)
It's not even just how good Penn State is, even though that's definitely the main thing, it's how spread tf out the other contenders are. There are 40 dudes currently ranked in the top 4 at a weight from 20 different schools. 9 are from Penn State, and 12 are from schools who have exactly 1 such dude. Nobody aside from Penn State has more than 4 (Iowa) and only 3 others have 3 (Nebraska, Minnesota, OkSU).
And among those 4 who have 3+ such guys, there's tons of overlap. OK State and Minnesota are both there at 285 and 184. Nebraska and Iowa are both there at 149. Nebraska and Minnesota at 141. Where there's an opportunity to pile up points for any of them, it's mutually exclusive and likely to be somewhat divided as the tournament progresses.
Basically, outside of Penn State, the only team with a serious shot at 100 points is Iowa, and they'd have to perform substantially above their current rankings and get substantial bonus points to do it. According to their Flo rankings, they're looking at 56 placement points. Even if they performed to expectation and got bonus points at the same pace as Penn State did last year, both of which, I mean, this is Iowa we're talking about so lmao, they're looking at 92 points. That's definitely not a bad tournament, especially for someone without a national champ, but this hasn't been good enough for a national championship since 1989, and in only about half of years since is good enough for second place.
You've got a Penn State team where anything less than 130 would be an unmitigated dumpster fire and a field where anything above 90 is exceeding expectations.