It’s not good practice to deal in absolutes, Jimmy. Unless they both lose, however, it is hard to imagine it won’t be one of those two.
I’d rank them:
1. Messenbrink
2. Mendes
3. Haynes
4. Vaness
5. Bard
I think someone like Shapyro or Basteeda could sneak in there, but there seems to be more parity at those weights. The above five are all undefeated and pretty solid individual favorites. MM, JM, and possibly LH could be considered favorites against the field. I think it takes that kind of guy beforehand and after the fact to generally win the award.