One thing that would be going against Carr is that if he loses to O'Toole, that gives him at least his 2nd loss. If Ramirez and him both finish with two losses that would mean that O'Toole lost once as well. If O'Toole sweeps the series in the regular season, I don't see how he isn't the one. That, however, would put Carr at three losses and Ramirez at two. Even if CR and common opponents are favor of Carr, winning percentage, conference championship and head to head would not be. Add in that While 165 has four guys all highly favored to pull AA this year, EIWA may qualify more guys (they currently have more 'ranked' in the Top 33). That would also mean that Ramirez would hold the Quality Wins advantage. In this scenario, Carr would need the committee to move him above Ramirez, which I don't see happening because Ramirez did beat him.
Honestly if Ramirez wins out and Carr loses twice to O'Toole the coaches might not rank Carr ahead of Ramirez anyways.