If Lewan is in but Gomez is out, for me then it’s Haines dec Lewan and Kasak at least majors whoever the backup 149 is. Which would make it 29-3. The only matches Michigan really has much chance to flip would IMO be 133, 165, 157 in that order. But they could also lose 125. Long story short they should “only” need to win 2 of those 4 to cover a 22 point spread if no Gomez. But bonus could also throw it off too