There is a formula, but I admittedly also don't know how it works. Tried to read the PowerPoint posted by Valenti on Twitter but I'm too dumb for that.
I do know that past championships do not help or Ferrari and Alirez would be seeded higher. All-start match also doesn't count (allegedly). Finally, yes, I do have a tendency to just make stuff up.
Starocci-McEnelly semi and Starocci-Keck final would have been better.