https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2024/01/31/why-was-federal-tax-revenue-down-in-2023/
When Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen took up this question in October 2023, she also zoomed in on the drop in individual income tax receipts, and further she claimed “The decrease in receipts for FY 2023 compared to FY 2022 can be attributed to $456 billion lower individual income tax receipts as capital gains realizations fell.” Capital gains! That could be the culprit (note: she is using fiscal years rather than calendar years as I am, so the numbers are not exactly the same). She also mentions the decrease in deposit earnings by the Fed, but in her calculation this is also much smaller than income taxes.
So capital gains fell. Interesting. But the economy was doing so good? Rates didn't change, but the economy didn't do so well. We can thank Biden for that, just like you say RV. But look!!! Revenues are projected to go up and up and up from 2023 to 2028. This should make you very happy. What should make you even happier you deficit hawk you, is if Congress reigns in spending to match the revenue. Now that would be cause for celebration.
mspart