Wrestleknownothing

That is pretty smart. You sound like you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

I took match count and total wins out of my analysis for that reason. It is especially problematic when looking at the three timers as they wrestled so few matches in the early days. But no matter, when your divisor is 79 (or 81) you will always suffer relative to someone who has a divisor in the 120-160 range. Match count always comes in to play, whether directly or indirectly. And now I can't remember if I did win streak as a total, or as a percentage of their career. I know I calculated it both ways. I will check when I get home. As for your last paragraph, a season and a match as a unit of measure are clearly not comparable. Not every match is the same, but every season would end with virtually the same challenge: two tournaments where the best of the best must be gotten past. Sadly, what we do not have is wrestlestat type data for Sanderson, Smith, Stieber (1st 2 years), and Dake to be able to judge if Starocci's 77 wins were higher quality than the other guys' higher quantity.

I like nice things, so yes. Maybe an all 17, 18, 19, etc. All the way down. An all-star team, a second team. There are no bad ideas.

@ionel did last year. Had 20. Winner had 26.

This data was sent to me by someone on HVI who tracks this for the obvious reason. Cael Sanderson's coaching record in the semis and finals is other worldly. First Semi-finals (minimum 15 overall wins): Next Finals (minimum 10 wins): The numbers when the lower seed in the semi-final (win 57.89% of time)or the final (win 58.33% of the time) are hard to believe.

It really does not change much due to his very low total match count. Because I am only looking at 4 years his win streak would only be 5 matches longer. With 68 in a row, that still leaves him six behind Yianni in fifth place. If you start including a fifth year (which I would not advise - who is to say Dake would not keep extending his 79 match streak?) then his win streak goes up to 89. There is no way he catches Pat Smith at 98 or that guy who did it 159 straight. Changing his record from 77-4 (95.06%) to 77-2 (97.47%) moves him from sixth to fourth in win %. He passes Dake by 0.31% in that case.

Not poppycock, fiddle faddle, or codswallop?

A+ on the use of balderdash (F- on spelling). Balderdash holds a special place in my heart. I was doing an interview and I was about to say "bullshiit". The B was locked and loaded, and half way down the barrel, when I though better of swearing and I with an awkward hitch I said "balderdash". The next day, a writer I have always loved picked up the quote while also using my name in his article. I can now die a happy man. And I am convinced it was for the arcane word choice.

125: Charlie Farmer (25) 133: Sean Spidle (23) 141: Shannon Hanna (17) 149: Teague Travis (33) 157: Logan Rozynski (21) 165: Enrique Munguia (22) 174: Jared Simma (19) 184: Ryder Rogotzke (26) 197: Camden McDanel (20) 285: Lance Runyon (18)

They give you 15 minutes to edit on this site. Not much.

A couple of your name/seed combinations are off. I want to make sure you want the name listed rather than the seed listed. For example, Julian Farber is the 18 seed at 133. The 20 seed is Blake Boarman. I assume you want Farber. And Ethan Fernandez is the 18 seed at 149. The 19 seed is Andrew Clark. I assume you want Ethan Fernandez. Let me know if my assumptions are wrong.

For comparison. Our PSU numbers are nearly identical when I use field derived expectations. But our Iowa probabilities are pretty different: I think this means your model is predicting that PSU will perform about to the average for wrestlers with those seeds (which is below seed to be clear), and that Iowa will outperform the average for wrestlers with those seeds (which does not necessarily mean they will beat their seeds). This is the opposite of recent history for both those teams.

I have nothing nice to say about the Green Bay Packers. Sorry @peanut, I just can't do it.

This is shaping up nicely. We are over 50 entries already versus 39 last year. I will post some summary data either late tomorrow or early Thursday. Keep those entries coming.

Welcome back. Not late at all. I haven't even finished my entry.

You speak as if eligibility rules are enforced as written. What a quaint notion.

Are we ignoring that Trump owns Truth Social, not Twitter?

LIU

Trump owns 59% of Truth Social's parent company.

Hutton won 3 of 4 in the brief post-war 4 year era. Back then if it was tied the ref would decide. He won one that way and lost one that way. Both were 1-1.

No one knows for sure which one was elevated. They did not release the totals that year. "Last season’s winner Spencer Lee of Iowa and Gable Steveson of Minnesota wound up in a virtual tie, with Lee winning the Fan Vote (25,712 to Steveson’s 5,202 votes), but multiple members of the formal Hodge Trophy Voting Committee voting for co-winners with both Steveson and Lee having such similar Hodge Trophy voting criteria stats."

Nebraska looks off.

The simulations produce nearly identical results to the expansion.

Because we all like to score at home, here are the probabilities summed at the team level, sorted by expected finalists: