Wrestleknownothing

I think this idea was well received last year, so lets run it back this year. Come one, come all and see if you can dethrone the defending champion @Hwt1. Many tried last year (there were 39 entries), but all failed. Hwt1 is looking to become the Cael Sanderson of prognosticators. I, for one, intend to be the Larry Owings of challengers. Who is with me? Rules: Pick one wrestler at each weight with a seed between 17 and 33. Tournament scoring. 1 point for a champ bracket win, 1/2 point for a consolation win, standard placement points, and bonus points also apply. The person whose "team" scores the most is the winner. Tiebreakers: Score of lowest seeded wrestler between the two teams combined. (if Team A picks all 17 seeds and Team B picks all 18 seeds, Team B wins automatically). If both teams have the same lowest seed with the same points (i.e. still tied) then the next lowest from each team are compared until a difference is found. If still tied, the wrestler with the highest percentage of their college team's points. (if Team A has a wrestler from Little Rock who scores LR's only points of the tournament, and Team B has a wrestler from Campbell who scores half of Campbell's points for the tournament, Team A wins). Submit your entries here and I will track. Feel free to change as many times as you like up until Wednesday night. One caveat: This year I may not have as much time to do round by round updates due to commitments, but I will try. Last Year's Results for reference.

Brooks won in 2020, Amine won in 2021. At State College, no less.

If you are in the minority then I am too. I view them as interesting anomalies, trivia question answers, nut not necessarily meaningful.

I am not hoping he fails. I am pointing out that he fails. The only prices he has brought down are the price of stocks.

They still do. I believe it was Dresser who shamed the NCAA to back down. They got their trophy in the mail.

Really great article. Everyone should go read it. The amount of detail he put together in a few hours is amazing.

While they chant, "One of Us. One of Us"?

That is an excellent point. I am pulling hard for them to make the podium this year. They will have to have a hell of a tournament to do it (ala Cornell last year), but it is possible.

Amen. I wouldn't mind Little Rock either.

Getting the most without getting more than half is plurality More than half is majority

Hard to ignore that champion pedigree

I'm 60, but I read at a 62 year old level.

Not even close. I am on the old side.

He was my pick. And I am a PSU fan. Keep that on the down low.

It is a bit of an artifact of the fitting in that it is mostly driven by performance of the 26 seed, but it get pulled to the right a bit during fitting. There have been four #26 seeds make the podium in the 5 years where the whole field is seeded. As more tournaments with 33 seeds go by, I expect that to smooth out a bit. But right now with only 5 tournaments seeded to 16, and 5 seeded to 33, I muddle along. There is evidence in the data that the seeding committee is generally accurate. The shift in results when going from 16 to 33 seeds bears it out.

I do some fitting in two directions around the data, rather than just using it in its raw form. For example here is my current fitted AA probability by seed. I will update again after this tournie.

An oldie but a goodie

Something that was requested on HR that I thought I would share here Last 10 year, At least 40 wrestlers, How teams perform relative to seed Red=Worse Than Seed Green = Better Than Seed Grey = At Seed

Thanks, I found a website with all the hex codes. Now I have a new way to waste even more time. https://teamcolorcodes.com/ncaa-color-codes/

He knows

Amen

And I am working on it.

Sitting in the Welsh-Ryan stands it really stood out how bald everyone in wrestling is. Wrestlers, coaches, officials, administrators. The domes were chrome as far as the eye could see.

Is this what you want?