Wrestleknownothing

thank you

A-FREAKIN-MEN

I have been swamped with stuff the last two days so haven't gotten into the detailed explanations as I much as I want to, but just want to say I love the stuff you are doing. It will be fun to see how this early iteration works this year.

I like it

Do you know who won the D2 title in 1986, when Haselrig was third, and whether they wrestled in the D1 tournament?

Link?

Yes, for independent observations, like 10 individual weights, to get the expected total you just add the individual probabilities. If you wanted to figure out the odds of all of them happening, you would multiple them all. If you want to get the probability of each event from 0 wins to 10 wins you need to do an algebraic expansion of an equation that takes the form (Prob of event one +(1-Prob of event one)x)(prob of event two+(1-Prob of event two)... The resulting factors in the expansion are the individual event odds.

This is going to sound crazy, but I think I will take Kasak if the match up happens.

I actually think the 1 and 2 are a hair light, but certainly within the range of historical norms. He has PSU predicted to win 2.7 titles. Seems about right to me.

Neither guy has been bonus machines at NCAA. Starocci has 11, including a year on one leg that impacted his wrestling style, while Dake had 13. No real difference here. The true outlier is Diakomihalis who had only 4 bonus points.

Here are the #10 - #16 seeds who are seeded below their Intermat rankings. I included their deviation to their coaches' rankings as well. Not every weight has someone seeded below their ranking in that range.

I added a couple of categories: career bonus % and longest win streak. And I renamed the top quartile to top 2 rank. I originally used this for all the 100%ers (not just the four-timers, so top quartile made sense for the larger group). A thing you can use to move Dake higher up on the list is that he is the only one of the seven who won his titles in the first four years after high school graduation. Sanderson took a red-shirt before freshmen year, Stieber was injured his first year, Smith took a red-shirt between junior and senior years, Diakomihalis took two years between Sophomore and Junior years, Brooks to a red-shirt before freshman year, and Starocci took a red-shirt before freshman year. Another thing in the Dake column is he had probably the most impressive win when he beat Taylor.

Agreed

You are the first.

Here is how they rank statistically. Unfortunately finding career bonus percentages is tough, but I do not think that will change the order much, if at all. If you added in things like total wins or total pinfalls, the older guys move up due to their higher usage rate.

Sanderson won 3. Ben Askren, Zain Retherford, Spencer Lee, and Gable Steveson are the only two-timers.

Nebraska +600 for second seems the value play

No, it wasn't the four weights. I don't remember my thinking, but when I get home tonight I will look it up.

For me 5 is irrelevant. The question then becomes where does he rank right now? And I would put him below several other four-timers including Sanderson, Dake and Brooks, at least.

Mark Hall, Pat Lugo, Luke Pletcher, and Kollin Moore were all #1 seeds.

Yep, but since you asked: So, 1973 was their last champion. This year with Josh Koderhandt seeded #3 at 141 he has about a 75% chance of AAing and a 7% chance of taking home the big prize.

No, the chances of at least one champ are 46.9% and the chances of no one in the finals are only 14.7%. That makes sense since you would need a high probability of being in the finals (85.3%) to have a even-ish chance to win a title or two. But one thing to keep in mind with all these probabilities is that any of this stuff could still happen. It is good to remember that based on their seeds the 2001 Minnesota team had a 0.8% chance of ten AA's. Yet they had 10 AA's.

Too kind. Mine is an applied course in how to waste time with statistics.