PortaJohn

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I was going to post a pic of Bart writing on the chalkboard "Simpson's paradox isn't mine", but I ran out of disc space. C'est la vie.

In the meantime I am worried about my fitted data from the other day. I clearly overstated the probability of #7 winning. More about path dependency than faulty causal inferences.

No matter what anyone tells you, your model isn't ugly.  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

26 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Pretty wild to think that the last 13 times a #7 seed has made the final, they have lost.

Until you realize that all 13 times the #7 hit the #1 in the final.

For the #7 to win (or #10, etc), they really need the #1 to get knocked off first.

Still waiting for you to create a thread or respond in someone else's showing Simpson's Paradox

58 minutes ago, Idaho said:

He called Nagao out for ducking last week, then he didn't duck.  I called him out on it and he deleted it all. 

He mis-reported the Kade Moore stabbing situation ... followed it up by taking down the pictures and post then said it was  because they weren't appropriate photos

Put up a post about Wittlake's injury to break it first, but then was reprimanded by the coaches because the family hadn't even let people know yet -  he took it down. 

He jumps the gun on a lot of stuff whether true or not. 

 

My all time favorite Mineo moment was him basically tweeting Nagao to Iowa, getting it wrong, & then "claiming" he knew all along and was just trolling Iowa fans.  

9 minutes ago, Rassling said:

Wasn’t Cole ranked #1 at one point last year? I could be wrong. 

No.  

9 minutes ago, ionel said:

nah thats the fun weight, go all in on 125!

but then it'll get jinxed and everyone will wrestle to their seed 

5 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

isn't truax gone?

Oh yeah, but I honestly forget he's even on the team until someone reminds me

3 minutes ago, SocraTease said:

There are masterpieces ... and then there are disaster-pieces.  Centralia belongs to the latter category like Three Mile Island and Chernobyl but, hey, property taxes and rents there are probably pretty low, right?

 

Is that Google's Gemini AI generated image of Plato's Cave?

Just now, Hammerlock3 said:

yeah but its barely even "hate" if you wait around for the right time...

Good point.  I think I'm wrong about the SVN ranking.  I don't think he ever jumped Lovett in the rankings.  And now come to think of it it's hard to see them not winning it next year.  They only lose 2 (AB & Carter) & SVN returns which will be an upgrade at 149.   

7 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Van Ness is not a #1 ... 

He was before the injury.  Then gets replaced by a true freshman wrestling up a weight now ranked in the top 10.  You're a year too early on the PSU is going to collapse at NCAA's.  Next year there are plenty of avenues for other teams to take the crown

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You just gave me an idea for a new contest.

Call it The Dark Horse Race. Or the Dark Horse Derby? Whatever. We have time to workshop that.

Rules: After the seeds come out, pick four wrestlers seeded 17 or below to AA. Points awarded for the difference between their seed and their finish. (I will work out something for finishes in a range). Bonus points of some sort for an actual AA.

Will we be capped at a certain amount when we draft?  Higher seeds worth more?  And Richie Figs should be eliminated from the draft pool or any 125 pounder for that matter.  

11 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

No its not.

If he beats Hamiti the top 4 seeds will likely be Carr, KOT, Ramirez and MM.   If Carr wins Big 12s he will have a win over a top 4 seed and the same Hamiti win MM will have as B1G champ.  

Seeds and rankings aren't the same but I get your point.  

I really want to hear @nhs67 take on this fascinating scientific fact 

39 minutes ago, KLCarnegieTech_1969 said:

Your comment is well taken.  I was getting a little ahead of myself.  I still think Matthews is a dark horse. He won't get a great seed.  He is 14-9 and is going to be a bracket buster.   As far as Yonger, Beard and Henson, they are legitimate contenders.

Will be interesting to see where Cole is seeded after the ACC tournament.  He has been shaky this year and yeah if he gets seeded in the mid teens and makes a run placing then that's a good dark horse pick

1 minute ago, ionel said:

 

He can wrestle Hamiti and still not have a win over a top wrestler. 

Hmmm, now you got me thinking.  Has he even beaten a neutral wrestler this year?

29 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

MM won't have a win over another top 4 guy. The Big 12 champ will

That's assuming he won't wrestle Hamiti in the Big 10 finals 

4 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

What happened to...

 

Many of life's course corrections 

37 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

How is Meyer Shapiro a dark horse when nobody will be shocked if he makes finals?

7 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said:

and people were picking him to win it before the season started....that toothpaste doesn't go back in the tube.

One poster listed him.  Let's all calm down.  No one else thinks he's a dark horse

edit... ok I saw two posters mention him.  Now I'm worried of an impending apocalypse.  @Hammerlock3 do your thing.  Argue these two posters into oblivion.  It's our only chance for survival 

1 hour ago, jajensen09 said:

At one point of the year you could say PSU had a high high probability at 4 champs. Now I'd say the over under is 1.5.

These are terrible odds.  PSU has 5 guys ranked #1.  Lets say Starocci has to forfeit out you'd still set the over under at 2.5

1 minute ago, KLCarnegieTech_1969 said:

Yes Michael Beard.  And, why are they not dark horses?

 

I'm honestly not trying to come off as arrogant but I really don't think this needs to be explained

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

Might top those but not Branch. 

Never said it did

If the tournament was seeded today the lowest seed with the highest potential would be Richard Figueroa.  

7 minutes ago, KLCarnegieTech_1969 said:

Cole Matthews

David Beard

Caleb Henson (maybe not a dark horse)

Bastida Yonger

Im assuming you meant Michael Beard?  But none of those guys are dark horses

56 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Dark Horse HOF

Wyatt "Chip and a Chair" Sheets - After an injury riddled season, comes in as the 33 seed at 157 in 2021 only after another wrestler had to withdraw (he was essentially the 34 seed), and takes 8th for a 25 slot improvement.

Yahya "Yeah Yeah" Thomas - Also in 2021, Thomas entered 149 as the 25 seed after a shaky B1G tournie, only to catch a heater and finish 3rd for a 22 slot jump.

Killian "So Nice I Will Do It Twice" Cardinale - There was something in the water in 2021. Cardinale entered that tournament as the 17 seed, but rallied to finish 7th at 125. Then, 2023 Cardinale told 2021 Cardinale to hold his beer. After having to take a med forfeit and an inj default at the ACC tournie, he snuck in as the 28 seed, before making the podium in 8th place.

Great list but 2015 Zeke Moisey tops all of these

33 minutes ago, ionel said:

There can't be two true seconds, I demand an extra match.  

fly is everyone's true first but who claimed him first?  

Id imagine it would be his very own momma, Mrs. Flutter Cement

9 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If the guy who won the third place match lost in the semi to the guy who lost in the final, then we have true 2 and 3.

If the guy who won the third place match lost to the eventually champ in the semi, then we do not have true 2 or 3.

So, call it true second or true third. Its the same thing.

We always have true 4 and 1.

9 hours ago, ionel said:

Nope ... sometimes we do have true 2nd (first case) but sometimes need to wrestle 2nd vs 3rd to get true 2nd (second case).  

Did I mention we don't have true 6th?  

You two are my true seconds.

8 hours ago, flyingcement said:

The term "true" implies he is no greater nor worse than the placing he earned.  If he is at least third, that's not the same as true third (IMHO)

But he's my true first