Is this what you voted for?

[JimmySpeaks]

10 minutes ago, fishbane said:

The bet your other alias originally proposed was this "I’ll bet that illegal immigrants kill more U.S. citizens than citizens who are wrongly deported." That is what I asked the question "How many US citizens were murdered by illegal immigrants in 2024 and so far this year?" in response. You proposed a bet that was one number is greater than another number.  My question was to try and determine one of the numbers.  I asked about US citizens because that is what you wanted to bet.  If you now want to expand it from "illegal immigrants kill more US citizens" to more broadly "illegal immigrants kill more people in the US"  I don't think it substantively changes the proposal.

The math behind my statement is pretty simply.  If illegal immigrants commit homicides at a higher rate than the rest of the population then deporting all illegal immigrants will cause a reduction in the homicide rate.  If not then the murder rate will be expected to either go up or not change. 

If they’re not here they won’t make it go up. Pretty simple. 

[braves121]

6 minutes ago, Caveira said:

Obama didn’t detain him.  He just kept him in detainment for over 1,000 days for the first 3 or so years of his term.    
 

Maybe he doesn’t care about citizens being detained illegally.  I don’t know his reasoning to be honest.  You’ll have to help me with that one. 

No matter how many times you try to claim Obama detained a man in 2008 like you still have posted will not make it true 

[JimmySpeaks]

1 minute ago, braves121 said:

No matter how many times you try to claim Obama detained a man in 2008 like you still have posted will not make it true 

I’m pretty sure his first sentence says Obama didn’t detain him.  

[braves121]

1 minute ago, JimmySpeaks said:

I’m pretty sure his first sentence says Obama didn’t detain him.  

He has a post saying Obama detained a us citizen in 2008 so i don’t think he has any credibility 

[JimmySpeaks]

Just now, braves121 said:

He has a post saying Obama detained a us citizen in 2008 so i don’t think he has any credibility 

His most recent post says Obama didn’t detain him but he kept him there. 

[braves121]

Just now, JimmySpeaks said:

His most recent post says Obama didn’t detain him but he kept him there. 

Don’t care if someone’s stupid enough to post that Obama detained people in 2008 when he wasn’t president he will just continuously make up stuff 

[JimmySpeaks]

Just now, braves121 said:

Don’t care if someone’s stupid enough to post that Obama detained people in 2008 when he wasn’t president he will just continuously make up stuff 

Ok RV jr 

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, JimmySpeaks said:

If they’re not here they won’t make it go up. Pretty simple. 

There are two numbers used to calculate the murder rate,  # of murders and total population.  Deporting violent criminals, murders, gang members, etc might lower the numerator, but if you are removing all illegal immigrants you are also decreasing the denominator by removing people who are not violent criminals/murders.

I'll give a more concrete example.  There are a lot of murders in the state of NY (almost 600 in 2023), but there are also a lot of people (~20M).  The murder rate in NY is lower than the national average.  If ICE were deport all New Yorkers they would be removing a lot of murders, but mostly non-murderers and the net effect would be that the US murder rate would increase even though no New Yorkers would be here to make it go up.  

[JimmySpeaks]

4 minutes ago, fishbane said:

There are two numbers used to calculate the murder rate,  # of murders and total population.  Deporting violent criminals, murders, gang members, etc might lower the numerator, but if you are removing all illegal immigrants you are also decreasing the denominator by removing people who are not violent criminals/murders.

I'll give a more concrete example.  There are a lot of murders in the state of NY (almost 600 in 2023), but there are also a lot of people (~20M).  The murder rate in NY is lower than the national average.  If ICE were deport all New Yorkers they would be removing a lot of murders, but mostly non-murderers and the net effect would be that the US murder rate would increase even though no New Yorkers would be here to make it go up.  

I’ll give you a more concrete example.  If there aren’t any unlawful immigrants here they can’t impact the number or rate at all. 

[JimmySpeaks]

7 minutes ago, fishbane said:

There are two numbers used to calculate the murder rate,  # of murders and total population.  Deporting violent criminals, murders, gang members, etc might lower the numerator, but if you are removing all illegal immigrants you are also decreasing the denominator by removing people who are not violent criminals/murders.

I'll give a more concrete example.  There are a lot of murders in the state of NY (almost 600 in 2023), but there are also a lot of people (~20M).  The murder rate in NY is lower than the national average.  If ICE were deport all New Yorkers they would be removing a lot of murders, but mostly non-murderers and the net effect would be that the US murder rate would increase even though no New Yorkers would be here to make it go up.  

So is that like when a murder happens in South Dakota it doubles the murder rate but actual murders only went up one ?   

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, JimmySpeaks said:

So is that like when a murder happens in South Dakota it doubles the murder rate but actual murders only went up one ?   

Not exactly.  That would be the case if there was only one murder in South Dakota this year.  There has probably been more than 1.  In 2023 there was 27.

[JimmySpeaks]

7 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Not exactly.  That would be the case if there was only one murder in South Dakota this year.  There has probably been more than 1.  In 2023 there was 27.

I’m glad that you agree that if there aren’t any unlawfuls here they can’t impact the rate or the actual number at all. 

[Tripnsweep]

You can't expect little Jimmy to understand math. That's beyond his grade level. 

[JimmySpeaks]

Unlawfuls need to go.  

[Caveira]

1 hour ago, braves121 said:

No matter how many times you try to claim Obama detained a man in 2008 like you still have posted will not make it true 

You read poorly. 
 

Davino Watson was detained in May 2008.   While gw bush was president.  

he was released in November 2011.   When Mr Obama was president.  

obama was inaugurated on Jan 20, 2009.  

1,015 days passed between his (Obama’s) inauguration and  his (Davino Watson’s) release.

 

most of his unnecessary  detainment (~75%) was under Mr Obama. 

Edited 20 hours ago by Caveira

[mspart]

2 hours ago, fishbane said:

That happened before the election.  Fiscal year 2024 ended in September 2024.

 

2 hours ago, braves121 said:

Common mistake of conservatives to not fact check or even pay attention lmao

That doesn't matter.   The arresting of illegal aliens is what I voted for.   To be honest, I'm surprised that Biden admin did this but Biden/Harris did not promise more of this.   Trump did.   I voted for more of this.   We are getting more of this and I couldn't be happier.  

mspart

[fishbane]

6 hours ago, mspart said:

 

That doesn't matter.   The arresting of illegal aliens is what I voted for.   To be honest, I'm surprised that Biden admin did this but Biden/Harris did not promise more of this.   Trump did.   I voted for more of this.   We are getting more of this and I couldn't be happier.  

mspart

Biden increased the deportations his last two years.  Here is a chart showing removals each quarter.  Q1 2021 was the last quarter of Trump's first term.  The rest of them are Biden.

[Tripnsweep]

7 hours ago, mspart said:

 

That doesn't matter.   The arresting of illegal aliens is what I voted for.   To be honest, I'm surprised that Biden admin did this but Biden/Harris did not promise more of this.   Trump did.   I voted for more of this.   We are getting more of this and I couldn't be happier.  

mspart

So chasing down and spending time and resources to go after people who don't commit crimes and otherwise just work and contribute to the economy is a good thing? 

[GreatWhiteNorth]

9 hours ago, mspart said:

 

That doesn't matter.   The arresting of illegal aliens is what I voted for.   To be honest, I'm surprised that Biden admin did this but Biden/Harris did not promise more of this.   Trump did.   I voted for more of this.   We are getting more of this and I couldn't be happier.  

mspart

And ICE's budget is now greater than that of the US Marine Corps.

I'd like to tighten up the border as much as most anyone. But c'mon. We don't have endless billions to spend. Many billions are already spent controlling the southern border.

We could do with less ICE guys raiding Home Depot parking lots, farms, golf courses, hotels, etc. unjustly arresting non-illegal aliens because they have a quota to fill.

We don't need a secret, masked police force that is controlled by the White House and is independent of all conventional law enforcement efforts and practices/policies. That is a super expensive way to not help at all. We're going in the wrong direction here.

[Tripnsweep]

2 hours ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

And ICE's budget is now greater than that of the US Marine Corps.

I'd like to tighten up the border as much as most anyone. But c'mon. We don't have endless billions to spend. Many billions are already spent controlling the southern border.

We could do with less ICE guys raiding Home Depot parking lots, farms, golf courses, hotels, etc. unjustly arresting non-illegal aliens because they have a quota to fill.

We don't need a secret, masked police force that is controlled by the White House and is independent of all conventional law enforcement efforts and practices/policies. That is a super expensive way to not help at all. We're going in the wrong direction here.

Look at ROI on this. 

It's a losing proposition. Instead of targeting actual criminals and doing real police work, we're going after people who arguably are a huge part of the economy. Now we spend money to hire, equip, train and operate the ICE guys, and they go arrest guys selling corn on the street. Then what? We have to pay more money to detain, house, feed and give this person legal counsel and we have to pay for all of that, then the costs to convene a court hearing, then if they get removed we have to pay for that too. I don't know the exact figures, but to me that seems like a net loser. 

The alternative is to stick to what Biden was doing which was to prioritize and target criminals who are involved with drug trafficking and other serious crimes. Unless you think being present and working here without authorization is worth the effort to do all of that. 

Most importantly, what do we as citizens gain from it? Nobody seems to be able to answer this.

[reversaloffortune]

Short answer, no I did not vote for this.  I didn't vote to become a police state with gestapo style tactics deployed against fellow residents.  I did not vote for troops activated in our cities during peacetime.

[Bigbrog]

What's absolutely crazy to me is people on here are actually trying to say Biden was doing something about illegals...umm...he CAUSED this mess!  We the people voted to have something done about it.  How hard of a concept is this to understand?? 

No citizens are getting arrested. No citizens are getting deported.   

[WrestlingRasta]

2 hours ago, Bigbrog said:

No citizens are getting arrested. No citizens are getting deported.   

Not to be argumentative, but for the sake of accurate information….Im sorry but this is just simply not accurate.  
 

As I’ve said on here many times I am 100% in favor of immigration control, while also keeping the doors open to those looking to ‘live the dream” in the greatest country in the world. That’s how the greatest country in the world was built.  I am in favor of immigration the right way, but that also involves our government doing things the right way, and staying true to who we are and what we were built on.  
 

Awhile back I talked on here about being in favor of these crackdowns but have concerns about a slippery slope.   It wasn’t received well by some.   Since that time our military has went into more cities, and a couple days ago our president and sec of defense talked to the top leaders of the military, and spoke to them about preparing for our city streets becoming proving grounds for war.  It’s seems we have been experiencing that very slippery slope I spoke to, and that’s not who we are.  I would like to see immigration be held under control in a much less extreme fashion.  

[Caveira]

6 minutes ago, WrestlingRasta said:

Not to be argumentative, but for the sake of accurate information….Im sorry but this is just simply not accurate.  
 

As I’ve said on here many times I am 100% in favor of immigration control, while also keeping the doors open to those looking to ‘live the dream” in the greatest country in the world. That’s how the greatest country in the world was built.  I am in favor of immigration the right way, but that also involves our government doing things the right way, and staying true to who we are and what we were built on.  
 

Awhile back I talked on here about being in favor of these crackdowns but have concerns about a slippery slope.   It wasn’t received well by some.   Since that time our military has went into more cities, and a couple days ago our president and sec of defense talked to the top leaders of the military, and spoke to them about preparing for our city streets becoming proving grounds for war.  It’s seems we have been experiencing that very slippery slope I spoke to, and that’s not who we are.  I would like to see immigration be held under control in a much less extreme fashion.  

What is your suggestion to fix the issue where millions of illegals walked over the boarder in that 4 year span?

[jross]

18 minutes ago, WrestlingRasta said:

Not to be argumentative, but for the sake of accurate information….Im sorry but this is just simply not accurate.  

As I’ve said on here many times I am 100% in favor of immigration control, while also keeping the doors open to those looking to ‘live the dream” in the greatest country in the world. That’s how the greatest country in the world was built.  I am in favor of immigration the right way, but that also involves our government doing things the right way, and staying true to who we are and what we were built on.  
 

Awhile back I talked on here about being in favor of these crackdowns but have concerns about a slippery slope.   It wasn’t received well by some.   Since that time our military has went into more cities, and a couple days ago our president and sec of defense talked to the top leaders of the military, and spoke to them about preparing for our city streets becoming proving grounds for war.  It’s seems we have been experiencing that very slippery slope I spoke to, and that’s not who we are.  I would like to see immigration be held under control in a much less extreme fashion.  

I see rock solid stairs being cut into the slope.