It is happening … now. Tiny tiers. The rest.

[Elevator]

4 hours ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Every team in the NCAA has had the same opportunities to raise funds and hire good coaches and build good facilities.  I hate hearing about the haves and have nots.   Some schools chose to  act, some schools didn't!.  This phenomenon does not just apply to recent history  

Yes - ideally programs and their boosters respond to competition and compete in all of the ways necessary.  Good for the sport and good for the wrestlers who can make some $$ for their hard work and pay off school debt and costs.  Its not like they have the NFL or NBA waiting for them to cash in.  

[Coastal]

2 hours ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Clarion failed to parlay their excellence under Bob Bubb  into future success.     Maybe it was the athletic dept maybe it was the school or at the state level but the ball was dropped. Opportunity existed and somebody squandered it.  It is obvious that wrestling and athletics are not a priority at Clarion and many other schools.  Decisions were made and that is OK

You do realize that Clarion isn't even Clarion any longer but PennWest Clarion.  The only decisions made in the last couple of decades have been trying to stay open.  A college that puts out teachers and nurses isn't likely to get a benefactor to keep the sports programs running on all cylinders.

[Coastal]

39 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The number of schools with AA's has increased every year since NIL became a real thing. This year saw the most teams with AAs (37) since 2014 (38). And that is in spite of one team taking 10 of them.

Has there ever been a larger gap between the last trophy team and the field?

[Wrestleknownothing]

14 minutes ago, Caveira said:

How Much of that is due to the arbitrary fact that scoring is 50% more for a TD and hard to calculate higher for a near fall.   Needing less swipes to get points and raising the ceiling for max points.  

Total points scored by all teams did tick up the last two years, but it did so from historically low levels, and remains well below what we saw in the 2007 - 2012

[Wrestleknownothing]

15 minutes ago, Coastal said:

Has there ever been a larger gap between the last trophy team and the field?

2012 had a bigger gap between 4th and 5th than this year.

[Coastal]

23 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

2012 had a bigger gap between 4th and 5th than this year.

Thank you.  I think were going to see the gap widening every year between the top teams/spenders and the non-spenders.    

 

There will be more all Americans at schools like Utah Valley where someone transfers home.  I think a lot of people thought Barraclough was an all American caliber wrestler who was stuck behind national champion caliber wrestlers but he wasn't a guarantee so he wasn't getting huge NIL payments.  Wick transferring home was another example but with a better resume.

[Idaho]

4 hours ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Every team in the NCAA has had the same opportunities to raise funds and hire good coaches and build good facilities.  I hate hearing about the haves and have nots.   Some schools chose to  act, some schools didn't!.  This phenomenon does not just apply to recent history  

Having been involved in a program for quite a while, I cannot disagree with this more. Please give me an example of a school that has chosen "not to act"?  What does that even mean? Cal State Bakersfield is a school that has to self fund 100% - their entire program. On top of just running the program with coaching, academics, recruiting, etc. - they have to raise money for the operating costs of the entire program. It's a good thing they have Stephen Neal working on that. So while some schools have massive donors, CSUB does not. Please don't say they can just work harder and go out and get some. They are working their butts off to do that.  In reality, Bob can write a check this morning for 50k that he wont' notice.... the time and effort to raise that at Bakersfield is very heavy. The amount of money that teams have to work with is all about their donor base, not how hard they working. PSU, Iowa, etc. are not doing the same kind of fund raising that low budget teams are doing. All they do is ask for a check and they get it. In turn, they get to focus their time and energy on coaching, developing and recruiting. 

[Idaho]

14 hours ago, Dark Energy said:

With the influx of money to athletes, we all know that a system of teams with $$$$ to give and teams that do not is in the process of being created.  Well, when folks look back 5 years from now, I believe it will be clear in hindsight that in 2025, we were already there.  
 

We will further solidify a few teams with lots of $$$$ and kids scrambling to get in.  Going to highest bidder.  A few teams will have the very best and the when a kid shines at a low $$$ school, they hop ship to the big $$$ school.  
 

The sport will suffer as a result.  Teams will lose fans.  Some will gain but the severe imbalance will reduce intrigue, uncertainty and excitement.  Can already see this with the boredom many have with PSU’s dominance.
 

What I’m not sure about is whether college sports will splinter.  With low / no $$$ teams having no interest in competing against the high $$$ teams.  Will be interesting to see how this part unfolds.  

This is spot on. There are approximately 5 teams that will spend lots of money every year on transfers and recruits - PSU, Iowa, Ok State, Michigan and Ohio State to name a few. They have that money because of big donors. There are another 5 teams or so that will be a second tier of spending... then another 5 teams are so in the 3rd tier. Everyone else beyond that are developing guys that are good but not great recruits. Yes, there will be teams here and there that will sneak in and get a trophy without spending an absurd amount of money - that's the exception and not the rule. They have to find ways and money to keep the kids they develop from going to one of the top teams for big money.  We have discussed this many times on the board over the last 5 years since this all started to roll out. The rich get richer has happened exactly as we predicted....and will continue to happen. It is what it is. 

[Coastal]

7 minutes ago, Idaho said:

Having been involved in a program for quite a while, I cannot disagree with this more. Please give me an example of a school that has chosen "not to act"?  What does that even mean? Cal State Bakersfield is a school that has to self fund 100% - their entire program. On top of just running the program with coaching, academics, recruiting, etc. - they have to raise money for the operating costs of the entire program. It's a good thing they have Stephen Neal working on that. So while some schools have massive donors, CSUB does not. Please don't say they can just work harder and go out and get some. They are working their butts off to do that.  In reality, Bob can write a check this morning for 50k that he wont' notice.... the time and effort to raise that at Bakersfield is very heavy. The amount of money that teams have to work with is all about their donor base, not how hard they working. PSU, Iowa, etc. are not doing the same kind of fund raising that low budget teams are doing. All they do is ask for a check and they get it. In turn, they get to focus their time and energy on coaching, developing and recruiting. 

It's not as easy as just asking for a check for most programs but fundraising is immensely easier at schools with larger fanbases but even the Iowa and Penn States of the world still fundraise.  The recruiting trail is where the real difference is.  The big schools are watching the finals of Ironman the smaller schools are watching the 7/8 match and asking if they are interested in wrestling in college.   I know one coach that puts thousands of miles on his car hitting small tournaments every Saturday.

[Idaho]

5 minutes ago, Coastal said:

It's not as easy as just asking for a check for most programs but fundraising is immensely easier at schools with larger fanbases but even the Iowa and Penn States of the world still fundraise.  The recruiting trail is where the real difference is.  The big schools are watching the finals of Ironman the smaller schools are watching the 7/8 match and asking if they are interested in wrestling in college.   I know one coach that puts thousands of miles on his car hitting small tournaments every Saturday.

Yes, I agree they fundraise..but as you said, it's much easier because of large donors. The same fundraiser can be done at Iowa and Utah Valley, and. you will get two different outcomes because the potential is much greater at Iowa because of who attends. Smaller programs depend much more on their fundraisers. Going down to the JC level, Clackmanas CC biggest fundraiser was their crab feast every fall. It would raise approximately 30k if I remember correctly. It was a difference maker for them. 

[The Kid]

15 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Isn’t this also true of other college sports, like football and basketball?

Well, those sports operate at a profit.   The Olympic sports don't operate at a profit. They will be dropped for the football and basketball teams.  The writing is on the wall.  Can you read it?

[Voice of the Quakers]

4 hours ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Clarion failed to parlay their excellence under Bob Bubb  into future success.     Maybe it was the athletic dept maybe it was the school or at the state level but the ball was dropped. Opportunity existed and somebody squandered it.  It is obvious that wrestling and athletics are not a priority at Clarion and many other schools.  Decisions were made and that is OK

Staying open is Clarion's priority, as it is for all of the PSAC schools right now.

[Coastal]

3 minutes ago, Voice of the Quakers said:

Staying open is Clarion's priority, as it is for all of the PSAC schools right now.

It's mostly the PSAC schools north of I-80 that are really struggling.   I don't think Indiana is having any issues for example.

[Pin Head]

Penn State has 19 branch campus locations. They are looking into closing up to 12 of them. Enrollment is down everywhere.

[BruceyB]

2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

The team that isn’t paying out the most money (probably second though).

There has always been not a lot of parity in D1 wrestling.  I truly don’t think NIL (and the portal) has made it any worse.  If anything it’s helped as @Wrestleknownothing graph shows IMO.

AA’s that transferred from better teams to “worse” ones, and I may be missing some:

Ramos

Poulin

McGonagle went to a “better” team but transferred because he couldn’t beat Crookham

Alvarez

Barraclaugh

Ferrari (I guess he counts)

Cardenas (yeah I said it @nhs67  )

Trephan

 

 

And that’s not counting guys who didn’t AA this year but have in the past like Beard and Noto

Sure, a backup from one of the big teams might be good enough to go somewhere else and get on the podium, but that doesn't mean that the top talent isn't being more heavily condensed in the bigger programs than ever.

The top programs will continue to steal the top wrestlers from smaller programs and due to this, smaller programs will get the lesser wrestlers that transfers out as a result.. SDSU getting Siebrecht, Rhodes, and Glazier is not a positive for the sport. SDSU was able to get those three because Iowa took the top wrestlers from NDSU, Oklahoma, and Arizona State and condensed the talent that used to exist on 3 teams not named Iowa, to now 1 team named Iowa.

This year Oklahoma State's line-up consisted of 6 wrestlers from Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Air Force. That talent was spread across 5 different programs not named Oklahoma State. This year, condensed to one program.. Oklahoma State.

Just between Iowa and Oklahoma State this year, they had absorbed talent from 8 different programs into just two.

You think Zeth Romney is going to finish his career at Cal Poly?

 

[Alces Alces Gigas]

2 hours ago, Idaho said:

Having been involved in a program for quite a while, I cannot disagree with this more. Please give me an example of a school that has chosen "not to act"?  What does that even mean? Cal State Bakersfield is a school that has to self fund 100% - their entire program. On top of just running the program with coaching, academics, recruiting, etc. - they have to raise money for the operating costs of the entire program. It's a good thing they have Stephen Neal working on that. So while some schools have massive donors, CSUB does not. Please don't say they can just work harder and go out and get some. They are working their butts off to do that.  In reality, Bob can write a check this morning for 50k that he wont' notice.... the time and effort to raise that at Bakersfield is very heavy. The amount of money that teams have to work with is all about their donor base, not how hard they working. PSU, Iowa, etc. are not doing the same kind of fund raising that low budget teams are doing. All they do is ask for a check and they get it. In turn, they get to focus their time and energy on coaching, developing and recruiting. 

I'm saying the schools had the opportunity to become athletic powerhouses and decided that was the road they did not want to travel down.  The decision might have been made 75 years ago but it is what it is.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

31 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

Sure, a backup from one of the big teams might be good enough to go somewhere else and get on the podium, but that doesn't mean that the top talent isn't being more heavily condensed in the bigger programs than ever.

The top programs will continue to steal the top wrestlers from smaller programs and due to this, smaller programs will get the lesser wrestlers that transfers out as a result.. SDSU getting Siebrecht, Rhodes, and Glazier is not a positive for the sport. SDSU was able to get those three because Iowa took the top wrestlers from NDSU, Oklahoma, and Arizona State and condensed the talent that used to exist on 3 teams not named Iowa, to now 1 team named Iowa.

This year Oklahoma State's line-up consisted of 6 wrestlers from Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Air Force. That talent was spread across 5 different programs not named Oklahoma State. This year, condensed to one program.. Oklahoma State.

Just between Iowa and Oklahoma State this year, they had absorbed talent from 8 different programs into just two.

You think Zeth Romney is going to finish his career at Cal Poly?

 

This is not a fully formed thought yet so bear with me.

It is possible that we see the relationship between the big programs and the others turn into a sort of reverse minor leagues. 

Let's use the example of Terrell Barraclaugh. He spends four years at PSU behind some real hammers while he perfects his craft (steel sharpens steel stuff). He did not look like an AA for the first three years he was a spot starter. Sure he could hang with the better wrestlers and keep it close, but his best wins were not notable, and his defense was better than his offense. But by year four he is starting to beat the NQ type guys and his development is obvious. Almost like an apprenticeship, he is now ready to go it alone. He takes the offer from UVU (assuming he got some cash), and year five is where he really shines at a program that probably was not going to be able to develop him on the same path PSU could.

Iowa's turnover was a different scenario obviously, as was Oklahoma States', but that does not mean we wont see something similar with guys who cannot make the starting lineup there. Now that they are both pulling in big name recruits their second team may become a feeder system for other schools. 

One thing it does for the UVU's of the world is lessen volatility. They do not have much in NIL to give, so they cannot afford to make mistakes. They may be better off paying for proven commodities, like Barraclaugh, than rolling the dice on high school kids who weren't recruited by bigger names.

The logjam at PSU, and the potential logjam at other big names, could serve as a feeder system for the others. We are seeing that with the number of PSU guys already in the portal.

[Alces Alces Gigas]

I look at PSU and see where they were pre-Sanderson and wonder why other teams with the same sort of success haven't made strides forward like they have.   Oklahoma? Illinois?  Michigan State? Indiana? Wisconsin? Etc??     Why aren't they doing better? Sure they all can't be #1 but they sure can do better. 

[CHROMEBIRD]

8 hours ago, Coastal said:

Not really.   St Francis had their first FBS win this past season.  They made the basketball tournament this year.   If a school that is having the most success in their sports history drops out of the rat race, other will drop or at least drop sports.

Exactly, and relevant. SFU is having a great year, but they actually did the math and said hell naw, we're not going to attempt to fund a battle that we can't even afford to enter. Going D3 was a smart choice, and I'm sure we'll see further attrition in D1 sports, as you say.

[Coastal]

33 minutes ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

I'm saying the schools had the opportunity to become athletic powerhouses and decided that was the road they did not want to travel down.  The decision might have been made 75 years ago but it is what it is.  

You needed to make that decision more than 75 years ago if you want in the BIG or SEC and those plus Notre Dame are the only ones making money in college athletics.

75 years ago Clarion was Clarion Teachers College.   When did you want them to make the decision to become an athletic power?  Ten years ago when they had 5K students? Today when they have less than 2k?

[Alces Alces Gigas]

Yup and Oklahoma State was Oklahoma Agricultural and Mechanical at one time as well,  the powers that be made the call and look where they are today.

[Coastal]

5 minutes ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Yup and Oklahoma State was Oklahoma Agricultural and Mechanical at one time as well,  the powers that be made the call and look where they are today.

Yep, Oklahoma State is a shell of it's former self when it comes to wrestling.  That's where we are today.

 

Most states have a University of "State" and a "State" State or A&M that is often times a land grant university.   Then there are private schools that were usually started by or for a huge donor like Vanderbilt, Duke or Stanford then city univesities like Pittsburgh, Miami...Chicago is interesting as they were once a sports power and are still are part of the BIG academically.  Lastly are the religious schools, SMU, Baylor, Notre Dame...     All of them have one thing in common, a funding source outside of tuition.      

Some schools started on third base, they didn't hit a triple.

[Idaho]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

This is not a fully formed thought yet so bear with me.

It is possible that we see the relationship between the big programs and the others turn into a sort of reverse minor leagues. 

Let's use the example of Terrell Barraclaugh. He spends four years at PSU behind some real hammers while he perfects his craft (steel sharpens steel stuff). He did not look like an AA for the first three years he was a spot starter. Sure he could hang with the better wrestlers and keep it close, but his best wins were not notable, and his defense was better than his offense. But by year four he is starting to beat the NQ type guys and his development is obvious. Almost like an apprenticeship, he is now ready to go it alone. He takes the offer from UVU (assuming he got some cash), and year five is where he really shines at a program that probably was not going to be able to develop him on the same path PSU could.

Iowa's turnover was a different scenario obviously, as was Oklahoma States', but that does not mean we wont see something similar with guys who cannot make the starting lineup there. Now that they are both pulling in big name recruits their second team may become a feeder system for other schools. 

One thing it does for the UVU's of the world is lessen volatility. They do not have much in NIL to give, so they cannot afford to make mistakes. They may be better off paying for proven commodities, like Barraclaugh, than rolling the dice on high school kids who weren't recruited by bigger names.

The logjam at PSU, and the potential logjam at other big names, could serve as a feeder system for the others. We are seeing that with the number of PSU guys already in the portal.

Yep... top level guys who are stuck behind an AA at a big school will transfer down usually, giving a mid-tier team a good transfer (Bear Claw). However, they can always re-enter the portal in one year. Good recruits who get developed at mid-tier schools will get plucked away because of NIL and transfer up. Kids with "circumstances" will often transfer down then back up again (Ferrari). Mid-Tier teams that land an elite recruit, most likely won't keep them (Bailey LR). 

[Voice of the Quakers]

4 hours ago, Coastal said:

It's mostly the PSAC schools north of I-80 that are really struggling.   I don't think Indiana is having any issues for example.

I'd be worried about every PSAC school other than West Chester.

[Coastal]

Just now, Voice of the Quakers said:

I'd be worried about every PSAC school other than West Chester.

All the PSAC schools have decreasing enrollment except for Slippery Rock for some reason but some are in much better shape than others.