It is happening … now. Tiny tiers. The rest.

[Dark Energy]

With the influx of money to athletes, we all know that a system of teams with $$$$ to give and teams that do not is in the process of being created.  Well, when folks look back 5 years from now, I believe it will be clear in hindsight that in 2025, we were already there.  
 

We will further solidify a few teams with lots of $$$$ and kids scrambling to get in.  Going to highest bidder.  A few teams will have the very best and the when a kid shines at a low $$$ school, they hop ship to the big $$$ school.  
 

The sport will suffer as a result.  Teams will lose fans.  Some will gain but the severe imbalance will reduce intrigue, uncertainty and excitement.  Can already see this with the boredom many have with PSU’s dominance.
 

What I’m not sure about is whether college sports will splinter.  With low / no $$$ teams having no interest in competing against the high $$$ teams.  Will be interesting to see how this part unfolds.  

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

23 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

With the influx of money to athletes, we all know that a system of teams with $$$$ to give and teams that do not is in the process of being created.  Well, when folks look back 5 years from now, I believe it will be clear in hindsight that in 2025, we were already there.  
 

We will further solidify a few teams with lots of $$$$ and kids scrambling to get in.  Going to highest bidder.  A few teams will have the very best and the when a kid shines at a low $$$ school, they hop ship to the big $$$ school.  
 

The sport will suffer as a result.  Teams will lose fans.  Some will gain but the severe imbalance will reduce intrigue, uncertainty and excitement.  Can already see this with the boredom many have with PSU’s dominance.
 

What I’m not sure about is whether college sports will splinter.  With low / no $$$ teams having no interest in competing against the high $$$ teams.  Will be interesting to see how this part unfolds.  

Isn’t this also true of other college sports, like football and basketball?

[Pin Head]

Curious to see the range of schools that had AA's the past few years. This year had nineteen with one AA, fourteen with 2 or 3 and the big four with 29 combined. This should be a litmus for concentration of talent ?

[Peggy4ASU]

Starting to see it with St. Francis announcing today they are dropping down to D3.  Wouldn't be surprised to see more schools follow suit soon.  

[WrestlingRash]

2 hours ago, Peggy4ASU said:

Starting to see it with St. Francis announcing today they are dropping down to D3.  Wouldn't be surprised to see more schools follow suit soon.  

non sequitur 

[wrestle87]

It is awfully naive, but endearing, to think that the past few years with public acknowledgement of NIL is the first time money has been a part of college wrestling.

It’s been there, people just don’t talk about it.

The only difference now is that teams with wallets but mediocre programs can be more competitive.

Edited March 26 by wrestle87

[boconnell]

5 hours ago, Dark Energy said:

With the influx of money to athletes, we all know that a system of teams with $$$$ to give and teams that do not is in the process of being created.  Well, when folks look back 5 years from now, I believe it will be clear in hindsight that in 2025, we were already there.  
 

We will further solidify a few teams with lots of $$$$ and kids scrambling to get in.  Going to highest bidder.  A few teams will have the very best and the when a kid shines at a low $$$ school, they hop ship to the big $$$ school.  
 

The sport will suffer as a result.  Teams will lose fans.  Some will gain but the severe imbalance will reduce intrigue, uncertainty and excitement.  Can already see this with the boredom many have with PSU’s dominance.
 

What I’m not sure about is whether college sports will splinter.  With low / no $$$ teams having no interest in competing against the high $$$ teams.  Will be interesting to see how this part unfolds.  

Yep.  It's very different than the past when we had lots of parity and tons of teams winning titles...

[BruceyB]

5 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Isn’t this also true of other college sports, like football and basketball?

Yes. Death to college sports as we have known them is currently taking place. There is a reason that this is the most chalk March Madness in NCAA Men's Basketball of the last 20 years. Mid-Major schools are getting their stars plucked and the talent is being concentrated into fewer and fewer schools. 

[1032004]

2 hours ago, BruceyB said:

Yes. Death to college sports as we have known them is currently taking place. There is a reason that this is the most chalk March Madness in NCAA Men's Basketball of the last 20 years. Mid-Major schools are getting their stars plucked and the talent is being concentrated into fewer and fewer schools. 

The wrestling tournament wasn’t very chalk though…. Only 3 1 seeds won.

[Rassling2]

8 hours ago, Dark Energy said:

With the influx of money to athletes, we all know that a system of teams with $$$$ to give and teams that do not is in the process of being created.  Well, when folks look back 5 years from now, I believe it will be clear in hindsight that in 2025, we were already there.  
 

We will further solidify a few teams with lots of $$$$ and kids scrambling to get in.  Going to highest bidder.  A few teams will have the very best and the when a kid shines at a low $$$ school, they hop ship to the big $$$ school.  
 

The sport will suffer as a result.  Teams will lose fans.  Some will gain but the severe imbalance will reduce intrigue, uncertainty and excitement.  Can already see this with the boredom many have with PSU’s dominance.
 

What I’m not sure about is whether college sports will splinter.  With low / no $$$ teams having no interest in competing against the high $$$ teams.  Will be interesting to see how this part unfolds.  

Dark Energy digging deep in thought and doing a great job encapsulating in a few thoughtful paragraphs how many feel about what’s happening to this sport we all love. $$$$ used in a way that controls and influences always poisons virtually everything it touches. Excellent post DE.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

35 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

The wrestling tournament wasn’t very chalk though…. Only 3 1 seeds won.

And no team has more than 2 champions…

[Coastal]

6 hours ago, WrestlingRash said:

non sequitur 

Not really.   St Francis had their first FBS win this past season.  They made the basketball tournament this year.   If a school that is having the most success in their sports history drops out of the rat race, other will drop or at least drop sports.

[Alces Alces Gigas]

Every team in the NCAA has had the same opportunities to raise funds and hire good coaches and build good facilities.  I hate hearing about the haves and have nots.   Some schools chose to  act, some schools didn't!.  This phenomenon does not just apply to recent history  

[Coastal]

31 minutes ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Every team in the NCAA has had the same opportunities to raise funds and hire good coaches and build good facilities.  I hate hearing about the haves and have nots.   Some schools chose to  act, some schools didn't!.  This phenomenon does not just apply to recent history  

If you think a school like Ohio State and Cleveland State or Kent State have the same opportunities, I don't know what to tell you.

Schools make money on football, the NCAA makes money on the basketball tournament.  Everything else loses money.  A huge alumni base makes it much more likely that there is a billionaire alum will to spend on a niche sport.

[Alces Alces Gigas]

Opportunity exists for all.   

[Coastal]

1 minute ago, Alces Alces Gigas said:

Opportunity exists for all.   

Opportunities used to exist for all. 

Clarion used to have the opportunity for an occasional national champ, then an occasional all-american, now an occasional NQ.  Cael Sanderson and Co could coach there and without any resources and an inferior academic school they are not going to become a national power.

[Alces Alces Gigas]

Clarion failed to parlay their excellence under Bob Bubb  into future success.     Maybe it was the athletic dept maybe it was the school or at the state level but the ball was dropped. Opportunity existed and somebody squandered it.  It is obvious that wrestling and athletics are not a priority at Clarion and many other schools.  Decisions were made and that is OK

Edited March 26 by Alces Alces Gigas

[Caveira]

2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

The wrestling tournament wasn’t very chalk though…. Only 3 1 seeds won.

Should the scoring record being broken twice in a row be more of an indicator or no ?    The almost 30 year old record.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 hours ago, Caveira said:

Should the scoring record being broken twice in a row be more of an indicator or no ?    The almost 30 year old record.  

It was also the 5th highest second place score ever, the 6th highest third place score ever, and the 7th highest fourth place score ever.

It isn't just one team monopolizing the points.

Oddly there were also more teams with AA's than we have seen since 2014. And the number of teams with AA's has increased every year since NIL really began to matter.

Not sure what all of that means, but it isn't as one sided as one team broke the scoring record two years in a row.

[Wrestleknownothing]

12 hours ago, Pin Head said:

Curious to see the range of schools that had AA's the past few years. This year had nineteen with one AA, fourteen with 2 or 3 and the big four with 29 combined. This should be a litmus for concentration of talent ?

The number of schools with AA's has increased every year since NIL became a real thing. This year saw the most teams with AAs (37) since 2014 (38). And that is in spite of one team taking 10 of them.

[boconnell]

7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The number of schools with AA's has increased every year since NIL became a real thing. This year saw the most teams with AAs (37) since 2014 (38). And that is in spite of one team taking 10 of them.

Quit getting in the way with facts.

[1032004]

2 hours ago, Caveira said:

Should the scoring record being broken twice in a row be more of an indicator or no ?    The almost 30 year old record.  

The team that isn’t paying out the most money (probably second though).

There has always been not a lot of parity in D1 wrestling.  I truly don’t think NIL (and the portal) has made it any worse.  If anything it’s helped as @Wrestleknownothing graph shows IMO.

AA’s that transferred from better teams to “worse” ones, and I may be missing some:

Ramos

Poulin

McGonagle went to a “better” team but transferred because he couldn’t beat Crookham

Alvarez

Barraclaugh

Ferrari (I guess he counts)

Cardenas (yeah I said it @nhs67  )

Trephan

 

 

And that’s not counting guys who didn’t AA this year but have in the past like Beard and Noto

[Caveira]

25 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

It was also the 5th highest second place score ever, the 6th highest third place score ever, and the 7th highest fourth place score ever.

It isn't just one team monopolizing the points.

Oddly there were also more teams with AA's than we have seen since 2014. And the number of teams with AA's has increased every year since NIL really began to matter.

Not sure what all of that means, but it isn't as one sided as one team broke the scoring record two years in a row.

How Much of that is due to the arbitrary fact that scoring is 50% more for a TD and hard to calculate higher for a near fall.   Needing less swipes to get points and raising the ceiling for max points.  

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

2 hours ago, Caveira said:

Should the scoring record being broken twice in a row be more of an indicator or no ?    The almost 30 year old record.  

No, considering the changes to 3 point takedowns and the way stalling is called.

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, Caveira said:

How Much of that is due to the arbitrary fact that scoring is 50% more for a TD and hard to calculate higher for a near fall.   Needing less swipes to get points and raising the ceiling for max points.  

I still need to do that analysis for this year. But last year it was not immediately apparent that the 3 point TD mattered, or if it did, it was too close to call. What looked like happened was that the number of majors was up slightly where it mattered (8 - 11 points). And the number of tech falls was up. But the number of pinfalls was down, offsetting the scoring. My theory was that pinfalls were turned into tech falls because the superior wrestler was getting to +15 too fast. It was so little data (1 year), and bonus points are so volatile, that it is hard to commit to that theory, though.