PSU almost has it locked up

[dragit]

  On 3/22/2025 at 4:27 AM, BruceyB said:

I agree. The underperformance is only relative to the absurd standard that they themselves have created. It's an underperformance by their standards, not normal standards.

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Nothing normal about Happy Valley Excellence Central.

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/22/2025 at 4:04 AM, BruceyB said:

It's performance relative to seed. As @Wrestleknownothing has pointed out many times, PSU has the best performance of any NCAA program relative to their seeds during Cael's tenure. This year, that is not the case. 125, 141, 157, 174, and 285 will place lower than they were seeded, 149, 165, and 184 can still perform to seed, only 133 and 197 have performed above their seed. This was a pretty large underperformance by Penn State using their own performance standards. However, when 9 of your 10 wrestlers are top 4 seeds, and the other is still an 8 seed, you can obviously underperform and still win a national title.

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That story is not yet written. Coming in PSU had what is believed to be the highest average seed ever (2.6 average). If they finish undefeated tomorrow their average finish will actually be better than their seed (2.4). And if they lose every match tomorrow their average finish will be 4.8. That 4.8 is better than when they won in every year, but last year. And that is in spite of the fact they have 10 wrestlers this year. 

[SocraTease]

You mean the rumor earlier tonight that they were imploding isn't veridical?  

[BruceyB]

  On 3/22/2025 at 4:29 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

That story is not yet written. Coming in PSU had what is believed to be the highest average seed ever (2.6 average). If they finish undefeated tomorrow their average finish will actually be better than their seed (2.4). And if they lose every match tomorrow their average finish will be 4.8. That 4.8 is better than when they won in every year, but last year. And that is in spite of the fact they have 10 wrestlers this year. 

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Why wouldn't their average finish be the highest it's ever been? This is the highest seeded team of all-time. I don't understand why we're even having a conversation about this being an underperformance.

When was the last time that PSU lost 5 matches on the front-side where they were favored in a single tournament?

When was the last time they lost 4 out of 7 semi-finals matches?

PSU has received the "PSU bump" during the NCAA tournament for a reason. This year, the bump hasn't been their. As I stated above, 5 wrestlers will perform below seed, 3 have a chance to match their seed, and 2 have overachieved. 

Has PSU ever had 5 wrestlers wrestle below seed under Cael?

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/22/2025 at 4:58 AM, BruceyB said:

Why wouldn't their average finish be the highest it's ever been? This is the highest seeded team of all-time. I don't understand why we're even having a conversation about this being an underperformance.

When was the last time that PSU lost 5 matches on the front-side where they were favored in a single tournament?

When was the last time they lost 4 out of 7 semi-finals matches?

PSU has received the "PSU bump" during the NCAA tournament for a reason. This year, the bump hasn't been their. As I stated above, 5 wrestlers will perform below seed, 3 have a chance to match their seed, and 2 have overachieved. 

Has PSU ever had 5 wrestlers wrestle below seed under Cael?

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You are misunderstanding the bump. Wrestlers seeded to AA often do not. And that applies to most teams. So on average, for the top teams, they wrestle below seed. PSU tends to wrestle approximately to seed. That is the bump. And right now they are wrestling almost to seed. And if everything goes right tomorrow (it won't) they will finish above seed. 

The time to decide how PSU did is when we know how they did. The only thing we know so far is that they are only the second team in history with 10 AAs. They had a 19% chance of 10 AAs going in (without the bump), and they did the deed. People are acting like 10 AAs is not a monumental achievement even though it has happened only twice in almost 100 years of wrestling.

As for vs. seed. Again, no school has ever had higher seeds or more wrestlers. But on two occassions where PSU qualified 9 they missed seed 4 times (2016, 2019). In 2016 the average seed was 8.9. In 2019 it was 3.8. This year is by far the hardest comp. To not acknowledge that is silly.

[scourge165]

  On 3/22/2025 at 4:58 AM, BruceyB said:

Why wouldn't their average finish be the highest it's ever been? This is the highest seeded team of all-time. I don't understand why we're even having a conversation about this being an underperformance.

When was the last time that PSU lost 5 matches on the front-side where they were favored in a single tournament?

When was the last time they lost 4 out of 7 semi-finals matches?

PSU has received the "PSU bump" during the NCAA tournament for a reason. This year, the bump hasn't been their. As I stated above, 5 wrestlers will perform below seed, 3 have a chance to match their seed, and 2 have overachieved. 

Has PSU ever had 5 wrestlers wrestle below seed under Cael?

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Yeah, I think the story was written with Lillendahl, Bartlett, SVN, Kasak and Haines. 

PSU usually wins a couple of those. SVN came out like he had no plan.
Kasak just couldn't string together attacks.
Haines wrestled a very timid Hamiti(after the first TD) and was in on several shots and...never seemed to show the appropriate level of desperation. 

Lillendahl looked flat.

 

Penn State has built their reputation for what they do on ESPN on Friday Morning, Friday Night and then perhaps Saturday.

Kasak or SVN wrestling back on the backside their Freshmen years were VERY impressive and that's what you expect maybe of the younger guys, but not NCs or the #1 seeds(though I will say Davis last year was a big of an outlier). 

They win the 50/50 matches and most of the 25/75 matches....like Josh Barr did. 

 

But when THIS type of tournament is less than impressive for YOUR standards, that only speaks to your standards. 

[RockLobster]

  On 3/22/2025 at 4:19 AM, Packard said:

To be fair when six of your guys are seeded to be finalists that doesn’t leave much room for error. It’s a little different then not meeting your seed of 4, 5, or 6

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The primary difference is that being a top seed gives you an EASIER path. All (6) of them.

Edited Saturday at 05:42 AM by RockLobster

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/22/2025 at 4:58 AM, BruceyB said:

Why wouldn't their average finish be the highest it's ever been? This is the highest seeded team of all-time. I don't understand why we're even having a conversation about this being an underperformance.

When was the last time that PSU lost 5 matches on the front-side where they were favored in a single tournament?

When was the last time they lost 4 out of 7 semi-finals matches?

PSU has received the "PSU bump" during the NCAA tournament for a reason. This year, the bump hasn't been their. As I stated above, 5 wrestlers will perform below seed, 3 have a chance to match their seed, and 2 have overachieved. 

Has PSU ever had 5 wrestlers wrestle below seed under Cael?

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PSU has only missed on 4 so far. Two have beaten. And 4 have a chance to match their seed today. Though I suspect Kerkvliet will forfeit and miss.

[nickp91]

Wow Nebraska has a legit shot at having 3 National Wrestling champions

[scourge165]

  On 3/22/2025 at 1:06 PM, nickp91 said:

Wow Nebraska has a legit shot at having 3 National Wrestling champions

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They should be favored at 2 and then Lovett needs to get an early TD IMO. And then get out on the bottom. 

I haven't been super impressed by Henson(relative to a guy who could win 3 titles). I had SVN winning...and I'm still not sure what to think of that match. It seemed like SVN, if he just took a little more time on a couple attempts, he finishes and makes that a REAL close match.

 

But...he got down 11-0 as Lovett just dominated him early. So...just kina interesting. 

[Le duke]

Penn State wins!


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[OMW]

  On 3/22/2025 at 3:16 PM, Le duke said:

Penn State wins!


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Such a fall!