Seeding 125 and 141 for NCAAs

[Truzzcat]

39 minutes ago, cowcards said:

Because he has losses to Jamison (who Mendez beat) and Happel. While good losses as they will both be top-8 seeds, they are still losses that Mendez doesn't have. 

An alternative way to look at it is that Hardy just won the bracket Mendez took fourth in.

[cowcards]

1 hour ago, jajensen09 said:

Hardy 1-1 vs Mendez and won bigs. Hardy gets the nod

So to be clear, we are discounting the rest of the season when determining seeding? That's fine if so, but it's going to only cause coaches to weaken their schedule as much as possible and dodge more matches than they do. 

[cowcards]

40 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

An alternative way to look at it is that Hardy just won the bracket Mendez took fourth in.

Mendez won a bracket that Hardy took 3rd in during the year. At least Mendez lost to the top seed in the country when taking 4th. 

[Dogbone]

1 hour ago, cowcards said:

So to be clear, we are discounting the rest of the season when determining seeding? That's fine if so, but it's going to only cause coaches to weaken their schedule as much as possible and dodge more matches than they do. 

It's not discounting the rest of the season. It's giving weight to head to head matchup.   Both guys have 3 losses on the season and Hardy has the head to head.    

You have to consider all the results.  You can't just say Mendez won CKLV so there is no way Hardy can ever be seeded above him, including if he wins the B1G tourney and beats Mendez head to head.  

Edited 22 hours ago by Dogbone

[cowcards]

1 hour ago, Dogbone said:

It's not discounting the rest of the season. It's giving weight to head to head matchup.   Both guys have 3 losses on the season and Hardy has the head to head.    

You have to consider all the results.  You can't just say Mendez won CKLV so there is no way Hardy can ever be seeded above him, including if he wins the B1G tourney and beats Mendez head to head.  

Didn't say that at all...

You said Hardy won a tournament that Mendez was in. I just told you a tournament that Mendez won that Hardy was in. They didn't get to wrestle because Hardy didn't make it to the finals. 

Mendez has lost to the #1 x2 and Hardy. 
Hardy has lost to the #1, #7, #8. 

Those are not the same quality of losses. Close though.

[No BS Fan]

Just don’t reward Bartlet for not going to CKLV or holiday tourney and giving all of them a chance. 

[BruceyB]

We're really talking about results from the first week of December as a reason to ignore what happened this weekend? Alirez should get hammered in the seeds. His best win of the year is Jacob Frost, and he just lost to Tagen Jamison. Jamison should 100% be seeded higher than Alirez when you compare their seasons. 

Likewise, why should Bartlett be a top two seed at this weight? He is 2-0 over Mendez, 1-0 against Hardy, and 0-1 against Vombaur. Before this tournament he had only wrestled two matches against top 10 opponents all season. Hardy gets punished because he went to CKLV while PSU sat at home? Hardy should absolutely be seeded higher than Bartlett after this weekend. We need to stop punishing guys for wrestling difficult schedules and rewarding wrestlers and teams that avoid competition.

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, cowcards said:

Didn't say that at all...

You said Hardy won a tournament that Mendez was in. I just told you a tournament that Mendez won that Hardy was in. They didn't get to wrestle because Hardy didn't make it to the finals. 

Mendez has lost to the #1 x2 and Hardy. 
Hardy has lost to the #1, #7, #8. 

Those are not the same quality of losses. Close though.

25% of criteria is H2H.  Hardy is going yo best Mendez directly.

Mendez needs to hope that Hardy loses to several guys that Mendez himself beats in the formula.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

We're really talking about results from the first week of December as a reason to ignore what happened this weekend? Alirez should get hammered in the seeds. His best win of the year is Jacob Frost, and he just lost to Tagen Jamison. Jamison should 100% be seeded higher than Alirez when you compare their seasons. 

Likewise, why should Bartlett be a top two seed at this weight? He is 2-0 over Mendez, 1-0 against Hardy, and 0-1 against Vombaur. Before this tournament he had only wrestled two matches against top 10 opponents all season. Hardy gets punished because he went to CKLV while PSU sat at home? Hardy should absolutely be seeded higher than Bartlett after this weekend. We need to stop punishing guys for wrestling difficult schedules and rewarding wrestlers and teams that avoid competition.

Bartlett: H2H (25) + Win % (10) +RPI (10) = 35

Hardy: Conference tournament (15) + Common Opponents (10) =25

QW (20) I think leans Bartlett's way (he has more of them, but probably 15/5 or 10/10), but not sure.

CR probably goes Hardy's way after the tournie (10).

Bartlett ~ 50 vs Hardy 40 or Bartlett ~45 vs Hardy 45.

So maybe Bartlett, but this is one where I could see the committee using their right to reshuffle the equation.

[cowcards]

2 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

25% of criteria is H2H.  Hardy is going yo best Mendez directly.

Mendez needs to hope that Hardy loses to several guys that Mendez himself beats in the formula.

Mendez will still be ahead in RPI, common opponents, winning %. If he stays ahead in coaches, which I wouldn't be surprised, he will end up higher. 

Happel probably has Hardy beat in the seeding criteria comparing the 2 depending on what the RPI/Coaches do.  

[cowcards]

17 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

We're really talking about results from the first week of December as a reason to ignore what happened this weekend? Alirez should get hammered in the seeds. His best win of the year is Jacob Frost, and he just lost to Tagen Jamison. Jamison should 100% be seeded higher than Alirez when you compare their seasons. 

Likewise, why should Bartlett be a top two seed at this weight? He is 2-0 over Mendez, 1-0 against Hardy, and 0-1 against Vombaur. Before this tournament he had only wrestled two matches against top 10 opponents all season. Hardy gets punished because he went to CKLV while PSU sat at home? Hardy should absolutely be seeded higher than Bartlett after this weekend. We need to stop punishing guys for wrestling difficult schedules and rewarding wrestlers and teams that avoid competition.

If you overweight the conference tournaments, you are going to end up with teams wrestling even worse schedules. Why go to any tournament or wrestle any dual unless you are going to win. Get to the 15 match minimum with 15 wins and then roll the dice at conferences. Why should Bartlett wrestle Mendez/Hardy at any point other than the conference tournament if Hardy's 1 win overrules the other wins he has. 

[BruceyB]

33 minutes ago, cowcards said:

If you overweight the conference tournaments, you are going to end up with teams wrestling even worse schedules. Why go to any tournament or wrestle any dual unless you are going to win. Get to the 15 match minimum with 15 wins and then roll the dice at conferences. Why should Bartlett wrestle Mendez/Hardy at any point other than the conference tournament if Hardy's 1 win overrules the other wins he has. 

How am I overweighing the conference tournament in these two circumstances? Bartlett's only top 10 wins this season are Mendez and Hardy. He lost to Vombaur in his only other top 10 matchup. Hardy matches his best win, and just won the tournament that he took third place in. If Bartlett actually notched some other notable wins this season, maybe I would feel more strongly that he deserves to be the 1 despite the conference tournament. PSU's schedule is basically what you just described.. get to 15 matches and roll the dice at B10s.. they rolled the dice and Bartlett didn't get the job done. 

[cowcards]

36 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

How am I overweighing the conference tournament in these two circumstances? Bartlett's only top 10 wins this season are Mendez and Hardy. He lost to Vombaur in his only other top 10 matchup. Hardy matches his best win, and just won the tournament that he took third place in. If Bartlett actually notched some other notable wins this season, maybe I would feel more strongly that he deserves to be the 1 despite the conference tournament. PSU's schedule is basically what you just described.. get to 15 matches and roll the dice at B10s.. they rolled the dice and Bartlett didn't get the job done. 

The ranks I am providing is where I think they will be after this weekend and not prior to the conference tournaments. 

Bartlett is 3-0 against the guys that are #2 & #3 in the country. He doesn't have as much of the depth of wins, but he has quality. His loss is to the #5.

Hardy is 5-0 vs. #2, #4, #5. His losses are to #1, #6, #8. 

The difference is the h2h loss and loss to #8. The 2 extra wins against the top-5 don't outweigh those for me. He beat the 2 guys that he is in contention with for the #1 seed and has 1 less loss (Happel and Vombaur cancel each other out).

I don't know what I put before, you've convinced me that Hardy should be the #2 instead of Mendez, which I think I had the other way around before. 

[1032004]

2 hours ago, cowcards said:

If you overweight the conference tournaments, you are going to end up with teams wrestling even worse schedules. Why go to any tournament or wrestle any dual unless you are going to win. Get to the 15 match minimum with 15 wins and then roll the dice at conferences. Why should Bartlett wrestle Mendez/Hardy at any point other than the conference tournament if Hardy's 1 win overrules the other wins he has. 

Not following your logic here.  You’re afraid of guys skipping early season tournaments, yet are advocating against the guy that took a loss at an early season tournament, and advocating for the guy that barely wrestled the 15 match minimum.

Rewarding Hardy despite having the loss at CKLV should only encourage coaches to wrestle there.

I agree with @BruceyB

[Ched64]

13 hours ago, smitty111 said:

141 is going to be tough.  Alirez #1 all the way to #8 would not be surprised.  

Have to disagree here but will be interested to see.  He certainly didn't look like the beast he was two or three years ago.  No Colorado simply doesn't wrestle anyone tough out of conference and there are a lot of weaker teams in the Big 12 that doesn't help the cause. That said, I wouldn't want him in the quarters if I got the 1 seed.

[cowcards]

13 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Not following your logic here.  You’re afraid of guys skipping early season tournaments, yet are advocating against the guy that took a loss at an early season tournament, and advocating for the guy that barely wrestled the 15 match minimum.

Rewarding Hardy despite having the loss at CKLV should only encourage coaches to wrestle there.

I agree with @BruceyB

When all things are equal or close, reward the guy who wrestled a tougher schedule. But Bartlett has the h2h against Hardy. If they wouldn't have wrestled each other, I would say Hardy should be the #1 due to the schedule. But since they did, it outweighs the one loss Bartlett took at conference.

[1032004]

17 minutes ago, cowcards said:

When all things are equal or close, reward the guy who wrestled a tougher schedule. But Bartlett has the h2h against Hardy. If they wouldn't have wrestled each other, I would say Hardy should be the #1 due to the schedule. But since they did, it outweighs the one loss Bartlett took at conference.

Isn’t “all things” including the H2H though?

Based on the seeding formula, H2H is canceled out by Conf placement + CR which I think Hardy will have.

Bartlett will have winning %.   Hardy may have RPI as he was only one spot behind Bartlett in the last RPI.  So could come down to quality wins, not sure how they stack up but that’s an area where going to CKLV helps

[BruceyB]

29 minutes ago, cowcards said:

When all things are equal or close, reward the guy who wrestled a tougher schedule. But Bartlett has the h2h against Hardy. If they wouldn't have wrestled each other, I would say Hardy should be the #1 due to the schedule. But since they did, it outweighs the one loss Bartlett took at conference.

Agree to disagree. I just can't accept a guy failing to win his own conference and then being granted the number one seed in an even more difficult tournament.

[cowcards]

7 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Isn’t “all things” including the H2H though?

Based on the seeding formula, H2H is canceled out by Conf placement + CR which I think Hardy will have.

Bartlett will have winning %.   Hardy may have RPI as he was only one spot behind Bartlett in the last RPI.  So could come down to quality wins, not sure how they stack up but that’s an area where going to CKLV helps

Not because the h2h is weighted so heavily (25%). The other 75% is what I meant as equal. 

I can say it this way, when all else is equal, h2h outweighs conference finish. 

[cowcards]

5 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

Agree to disagree. I just can't accept a guy failing to win his own conference and then being granted the number one seed in an even more difficult tournament.

That's fine. I get the sentiment. Just different opinions. I have a hypothetical for you though because I'm super curious now. Let's say Vombaur won big10s instead. Who do you seed #1 for nationals?

[BruceyB]

3 minutes ago, cowcards said:

That's fine. I get the sentiment. Just different opinions. I have a hypothetical for you though because I'm super curious now. Let's say Vombaur won big10s instead. Who do you seed #1 for nationals?

Honestly, I think Vombaur would might have an easier case for #1 than Hardy since he actually beat the #1 wrestler in the country to reach the finals and is now 1-0 against Bartlett this season, and then would have beaten Hardy to win the most recent H2H matchup and tie the series for this season. I think outplacing Mendez at conferences cancels out the H2H win, and no one in the B12 has the credentials for the #1. That being said, I obviously don't think Vombaur would be the favorite to win NCAAs, but I think he could be granted the #1 seed for winning the right matches at the right time.

[cowcards]

7 minutes ago, BruceyB said:

Honestly, I think Vombaur would might have an easier case for #1 than Hardy since he actually beat the #1 wrestler in the country to reach the finals and is now 1-0 against Bartlett this season, and then would have beaten Hardy to win the most recent H2H matchup and tie the series for this season. I think outplacing Mendez at conferences cancels out the H2H win, and no one in the B12 has the credentials for the #1. That being said, I obviously don't think Vombaur would be the favorite to win NCAAs, but I think he could be granted the #1 seed for winning the right matches at the right time.

I think I could agree with you on that one. Wouldn't have thought so when I asked. 

[1032004]

1 hour ago, cowcards said:

Not because the h2h is weighted so heavily (25%). The other 75% is what I meant as equal. 

I can say it this way, when all else is equal, h2h outweighs conference finish. 

So “all else” other than H2H and conference finish?

I’m not sure how equal that is though.

The only other criteria Bartlett will have for sure is winning % (10%).

I think Hardy will have coaches rank (10%).  He should also have common opponents (10%).

Not sure on RPI.  So still comes down to quality wins IMO, not sure the exact formula but I think Hardy has the edge due to his tougher schedule 

[cowcards]

7 hours ago, 1032004 said:

So “all else” other than H2H and conference finish?

I’m not sure how equal that is though.

The only other criteria Bartlett will have for sure is winning % (10%).

I think Hardy will have coaches rank (10%).  He should also have common opponents (10%).

Not sure on RPI.  So still comes down to quality wins IMO, not sure the exact formula but I think Hardy has the edge due to his tougher schedule 

Everything = all criteria
Else = not al the criteria

In this instance, else is being defined to say all the criteria that is not h2h or conference finish.

I don't think hardy will be ahead in the RPI or the coaches.

Thus, everything else is equal or very close. 

h2h > conference finish

[Dogbone]

10 hours ago, cowcards said:

Bartlett is 3-0 against the guys that are #2 & #3 in the country. He doesn't have as much of the depth of wins, but he has quality. His loss is to the #5.

Hardy is 5-0 vs. #2, #4, #5. His losses are to #1, #6, #8. 

I think this is the difference in opinion.   Hardy wrestled 7 top ten matches and Barlettt only wrestled 4 (2 at the B1G tourney). 

You can't lost matches you don't wrestle.   So Bartlett is rewarded for not scheduling a tough tourney and then losing before the finals to a lower ranked guy.

Do you reward the guy who put it on the line or punish him because he did it but didn't go unscathed?

Edited 5 hours ago by Dogbone