How good are PSU Backup/Redshirts?

[fishbane]

Recently PSU sent 9 wrestlers (all backups and redshirts) to the Southern Scuffle and they finished tied for 2nd in the team standings with Oklahoma and 6 points behind Army. PSU obviously didn't send their best 10 backups to the Scuffle.  They didn't even enter a 157 and their backup 157 (Facundo) is pretty good and probably a top 10 guy.  Still they finished level with Oklahoma (#19 in Internet's Dual Rankings) and 6 points behind Army (#24 in IM DR).  How good are PSU's backups?  Are they top 25?  Top 20?  Top 15?  Top 10?

For the purposes of this discussion lets have PSU's team 2 as following

125 Kurt McHenry (#39 Wrestlestat, 5th at the Scuffle) 

133 Aaron Nago (#12 WS, 5th NCAA's 2023, R12 2024, 0-0 this season, not at Scuffle)

141 Cael Nasedo (#59 WS, 5-3 this season, won the Edinboro Open over the weekend, not at Scuffle)

149 David Evans (#22 WS, 12-3 last season, has not wrestled this season, not at Scuffle)

157 Alex Facundo (#25 WS, NQ 165 in 2023, 5-1 this season, not at Scuffle)

165 Aurelius Dunbar (#122 WS, 3-2 this season, 3-2 DNP at Scuffle)

174 Matt Lee (#48 WS, 2-0 this season, not at Scuffle)

184 Zack Ryder (#11 WS, 8-0 this season, won Scuffle)

197 Connor Mirasola (#31 WS, 8-1 this season, won Scuffle)

285 Cole Mirasola (#23 WS, 8-0 this season, won Scuffle)

With this lineup they likely win the Scuffle.  Nagao wasn't at the Scuffle and he probable outscores PSU's entry (Steen) who went 2-2.  Nasedo wasn't there either and instead won the Edinobo Open last weekend.  He probably would have been a points improvement over Levin.  Evan's wasn't at the Scuffle, but PSU sent Pierce (#36 WS) who made the finals. Facundo likely would have placed at 157. At 174 PSU sent Kelly, but Lee would have been a better option.  Lee beat the Army starter earlier this season and that guy was 5th at the Scuffle.  I'd say PSU's optimal lineup of backups is a better team than either Oklahoma or Army and would have won the Scuffle against this year's field.

I also did some dual simulations with this lineup on Wrestlestat. 

PSU T2 over #25 (Intermat Dual Ranking) Purdue 17-16

PSU T2 over #20 (IM DR) ASU 20-19

PSU T2 over #15 (IM DR) Little Rock 19-13

#10 (IM DR) Illinois over PSU T2  20-12 

#5 (IM DR) Ohio State over PSU T2 25-9 (note - inserting Lucas Cochran at 197 makes this 22-12.)

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

8 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Recently PSU sent 9 wrestlers (all backups and redshirts) to the Southern Scuffle and they finished tied for 2nd in the team standings with Oklahoma and 6 points behind Army. PSU obviously didn't send their best 10 backups to the Scuffle.  They didn't even enter a 157 and their backup 157 (Facundo) is pretty good and probably a top 10 guy.  Still they finished level with Oklahoma (#19 in Internet's Dual Rankings) and 6 points behind Army (#24 in IM DR).  How good are PSU's backups?  Are they top 25?  Top 20?  Top 15?  Top 10?

For the purposes of this discussion lets have PSU's team 2 as following

125 Kurt McHenry (#39 Wrestlestat, 5th at the Scuffle) 

133 Aaron Nago (#12 WS, 5th NCAA's 2023, R12 2024, 0-0 this season, not at Scuffle)

141 Cael Nasedo (#59 WS, 5-3 this season, won the Edinboro Open over the weekend, not at Scuffle)

149 David Evans (#22 WS, 12-3 last season, has not wrestled this season, not at Scuffle)

157 Alex Facundo (#25 WS, NQ 165 in 2023, 5-1 this season, not at Scuffle)

165 Aurelius Dunbar (#122 WS, 3-2 this season, 3-2 DNP at Scuffle)

174 Matt Lee (#48 WS, 2-0 this season, not at Scuffle)

184 Zack Ryder (#11 WS, 8-0 this season, won Scuffle)

197 Connor Mirasola (#31 WS, 8-1 this season, won Scuffle)

285 Cole Mirasola (#23 WS, 8-0 this season, won Scuffle)

With this lineup they likely win the Scuffle.  Nagao wasn't at the Scuffle and he probable outscores PSU's entry (Steen) who went 2-2.  Nasedo wasn't there either and instead won the Edinobo Open last weekend.  He probably would have been a points improvement over Levin.  Evan's wasn't at the Scuffle, but PSU sent Pierce (#36 WS) who made the finals. Facundo likely would have placed at 157. At 174 PSU sent Kelly, but Lee would have been a better option.  Lee beat the Army starter earlier this season and that guy was 5th at the Scuffle.  I'd say PSU's optimal lineup of backups is a better team than either Oklahoma or Army and would have won the Scuffle against this year's field.

I also did some dual simulations with this lineup on Wrestlestat. 

PSU T2 over #25 (Intermat Dual Ranking) Purdue 17-16

PSU T2 over #20 (IM DR) ASU 20-19

PSU T2 over #15 (IM DR) Little Rock 19-13

#10 (IM DR) Illinois over PSU T2  20-12 

#5 (IM DR) Ohio State over PSU T2 25-9 (note - inserting Lucas Cochran at 197 makes this 22-12.)

Nagao is apparently unable to wrestle at the moment, so he should prob be removed.

[ionel]

9 minutes ago, fishbane said:

#10 (IM DR) Illinois over PSU T2  20-12 

When all the PSU starters are on the IR the Illini will win their last dual of the year going undefeated followed by a B10 and NCAA championship.  If you dont believe me just ask IWB and check the next addition of SMC. 

[1032004]

11 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Nagao is apparently unable to wrestle at the moment, so he should prob be removed.

Both he and Facundo may be “injured”

[nhs67]

David Evans would be the 157lb #2, with Facundo being hurt.

He weighed in at 156.8 at the National Duals:

 

[Truzzcat]

with the guys you listed above I think they would qualify 7 for nationals. Potentially 4 AA's although I would probably only predict Ryder and Facundo to with low confidence. Still for it being a second unit absolutely insane.

[fishbane]

These are valid points.  I wasn't sure of including Evans and Nagao since they haven't wrestled this season.

Nagao's injury wasn't reported as season ending.  I think Sanderson said he wasn't healthy to start the season, and I suspect that if he doesn't return angling for an injury year may be involved.  If PSU needed him he'd be back for conferences.

If Evan's weighed in for a dual then he likely ready to go.  I have him at 149, but maybe he's a 157.  I'll keep him where he's at.  He might weigh in at 157 more because with Facundo sidelined PSU doesn't have another 157 whereas at 149 they have a couple of backup options.  

Facundo's injury did not sound serious.  Sanderson said he "tweaked something" and have a timeline of a few to several weeks to return.  Though if this dual took place today he likely wouldn't feature.

Overall I think the lineup is pretty fair.  I think all of these guys will compete at these weights at least once this year.  If someone was out for the season I wouldn't include them, but I don't think that's the case with Nagao, Evans, or Funcundo.    It might be skewed slightly in PSU's favour if they aren't all healthy at the same time, but if this team were entered at big Tens I'd bet they'd be available.  If we were to try and make the best possible dual lineup for the second team, it might be Pierce at 149, Evans at 157 and Facundo up at 165, but that may be hard to simulate and Evans and Facundo may prefer to be down.

When Askren returned for an episode of FRL a few weeks ago he said PSU has "a second team that's likely a top 10 NCAA tournament team."  I thought that was an overstatement.  OSU was 10th last year and they had 3AAs with 2 finalists.  I'm not sure I see that coming from this group, but Askren may.  Two of the backups are AWA guys he likely has them as high AAs if not national champs in his mind.

[Spencerlee]

Honestly, not as stacked as I would’ve thought.

[feet2back]

Yes that's Great but look at all the talent that Will Never be or even compete to be a College All-American because they can't beat the #1 guy at PSU

Edited Monday at 07:58 PM by feet2back

[1032004]

22 minutes ago, fishbane said:

These are valid points.  I wasn't sure of including Evans and Nagao since they haven't wrestled this season.

Nagao's injury wasn't reported as season ending.  I think Sanderson said he wasn't healthy to start the season, and I suspect that if he doesn't return angling for an injury year may be involved.  If PSU needed him he'd be back for conferences.

If Evan's weighed in for a dual then he likely ready to go.  I have him at 149, but maybe he's a 157.  I'll keep him where he's at.  He might weigh in at 157 more because with Facundo sidelined PSU doesn't have another 157 whereas at 149 they have a couple of backup options.  

Facundo's injury did not sound serious.  Sanderson said he "tweaked something" and have a timeline of a few to several weeks to return.  Though if this dual took place today he likely wouldn't feature.

Overall I think the lineup is pretty fair.  I think all of these guys will compete at these weights at least once this year.  If someone was out for the season I wouldn't include them, but I don't think that's the case with Nagao, Evans, or Funcundo.    It might be skewed slightly in PSU's favour if they aren't all healthy at the same time, but if this team were entered at big Tens I'd bet they'd be available.  If we were to try and make the best possible dual lineup for the second team, it might be Pierce at 149, Evans at 157 and Facundo up at 165, but that may be hard to simulate and Evans and Facundo may prefer to be down.

When Askren returned for an episode of FRL a few weeks ago he said PSU has "a second team that's likely a top 10 NCAA tournament team."  I thought that was an overstatement.  OSU was 10th last year and they had 3AAs with 2 finalists.  I'm not sure I see that coming from this group, but Askren may.  Two of the backups are AWA guys he likely has them as high AAs if not national champs in his mind.

I’d be surprised if Nagao or Facundo wrestle again this season, especially Nagao.  I think they are both angling for a medical year.

[1032004]

15 minutes ago, Spencerlee said:

Honestly, not as stacked as I would’ve thought.

They also have Cochran at 197.  

[Threadkilla]

Joe Sealey at 165, sounds like he;s ready to compete.  Cael said he is as advertised.  

[ionel]

Are all these "injuries" due to the grind of their pre-conference schedule or dodgeball related?  

[fishbane]

10 minutes ago, Threadkilla said:

Joe Sealey at 165, sounds like he;s ready to compete.  Cael said he is as advertised.  

Yeah I forgot about him.  Hasn't wrestled this season.  Their best team 2 is likely 

149 Evans

157 Facundo

165 Sealey

[WrestlingRash]

where would their backups finish as a team at NCAAs?

Wrestling should allow 2 per weight per school. Track and field, swimming and gymnastics do. Why not us?

[fishbane]

Including Sealey doesn't improve the Wrestlestat dual predictions for the second tier Nittany Lions.  Wrestlestat doesn't have any data for Sealey.  He's ranked #236 and 0-0.  It actually makes them worse.  Subbing Sealey for Dunbar makes the Purdue match 17-17 and ASU is also a tie at 20-20.  Little Rock and Illinois remain unchanged.  Ohio State gains a team point, but the dual result isn't impacted.

[1032004]

53 minutes ago, Threadkilla said:

Joe Sealey at 165, sounds like he;s ready to compete.  Cael said he is as advertised.  

He better be if he wants to see the lineup.  I guess they could still do the Haines redshirt next year 

[Truzzcat]

3 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

He better be if he wants to see the lineup.  I guess they could still do the Haines redshirt next year 

Thats assuming MM bumps, Pj duke does not go, he can beat facundo and barr does not drop down to 184 and force Ryder down to 174...

[Threadkilla]

14 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Including Sealey doesn't improve the Wrestlestat dual predictions for the second tier Nittany Lions.  Wrestlestat doesn't have any data for Sealey.  He's ranked #236 and 0-0.  It actually makes them worse.  Subbing Sealey for Dunbar makes the Purdue match 17-17 and ASU is also a tie at 20-20.  Little Rock and Illinois remain unchanged.  Ohio State gains a team point, but the dual result isn't impacted.

Sealey is a blue chip recruit.  I'm thinking he's a big improvement over Dunbar,  It sounds like he is ready to go according to Cael. 

I don't need Pyles blathering or WS about who is going to be good.  I listen when Cael and some of the established guys drop  hints about how good guys are going to be.    I remember when Cael was talking about Cassar when he was coming back from Injury and Cael said  Cassar is good, Real Good.  and Starocci and Brooks talking about Barr last year.  they both said  that kid is going to be the next Multi time champ.    

[Truzzcat]

Sealey went to UTB with Ferrari almost exactly a year ago at the same weight he is projected to wrestle, and people are discussing ferrari as the better option over Gabe Arnold. Taking room environments into account I think it's a fairly safe bet that Joe sealey will be and is pretty good.

[Threadkilla]

9 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

He better be if he wants to see the lineup.  I guess they could still do the Haines redshirt next year 

I thought this thread was about backups this year.    Next year is a whole differnt story with Duke and Blaze likely title threats out of the gate.  The talent this year is amazing,  next year is just rude.  

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, Truzzcat said:

Sealey went to UTB with Ferrari almost exactly a year ago at the same weight he is projected to wrestle, and people are discussing ferrari as the better option over Gabe Arnold. Taking room environments into account I think it's a fairly safe bet that Joe sealey will be and is pretty good.

Didn't Ferrari beat Sealey decisively at some high school event? I recall Flo elevating Ferrari to the #1 P4P recruit after this.    In any event a lot seems to changed from high school for these two.  They look to be two weight classes apart at the moment.  

[BruceyB]

43 minutes ago, WrestlingRash said:

where would their backups finish as a team at NCAAs?

Wrestling should allow 2 per weight per school. Track and field, swimming and gymnastics do. Why not us?

Yes, that's what wrestling needs.. most talent accumulating at fewer schools..

[Threadkilla]

31 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Didn't Ferrari beat Sealey decisively at some high school event? I recall Flo elevating Ferrari to the #1 P4P recruit after this.    In any event a lot seems to changed from high school for these two.  They look to be two weight classes apart at the moment.  

Yes,  He majored Sealey at the Ironman.  They Sealey was #1 at 160 and Ferrari was #1 at 170.  He gave up alot of size.

[Truzzcat]

34 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Didn't Ferrari beat Sealey decisively at some high school event? I recall Flo elevating Ferrari to the #1 P4P recruit after this.    In any event a lot seems to changed from high school for these two.  They look to be two weight classes apart at the moment.  

Yes their who's 1 match was maybe a major? the ironman match was a few months after Sealey seemed to figure out how to avoid getting leg passed which I believe resulted in two takedowns in the first match. Sealey also beat Messenbrink at super 32 which is kind of crazy to think about.