Why Isn't Mendez ranked #1?

[silver-medal]

Curious if others agree, disagree and why?

[Wrestleknownothing]

16 minutes ago, silver-medal said:

Curious if others agree, disagree and why?

He is on wrestlestat. And wrestlestat also has Alirez three behind Bartlett. Clearly the algo values current results, so skipping a year penalizes Alirez.

Flo says it is because Mendez suffered two loses last year while Mendez was undefeated the prior season. That strikes me as the weakest of reasons, such that it feels more like justification for what they wanted to do. I call bullshat (once again) on their performative claims of a rankers oath.

But as for Intermat? Ya got me. @InterMat Staff, any thoughts here?

[bnwtwg]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

He is on wrestlestat. And wrestlestat also has Alirez three behind Bartlett. Clearly the algo values current results, so skipping a year penalizes Alirez.

Flo says it is because Mendez suffered two loses last year while Mendez was undefeated the prior season. That strikes me as the weakest of reasons, such that it feels more like justification for what they wanted to do. I call bullshat (once again) on their performative claims of a rankers oath.

But as for Intermat? Ya got me. @InterMat Staff, any thoughts here?

Real Woods was a 50/50 upper body exchange from an absolutely dominant undefeated season when Alirez won and look what happened to him last year against Mendez and 4 other people. No reason the same won't happen in 24-25 - it's why they wrestle the matches.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

He is on wrestlestat. And wrestlestat also has Alirez three behind Bartlett. Clearly the algo values current results, so skipping a year penalizes Alirez.

Flo says it is because Mendez suffered two loses last year while Mendez was undefeated the prior season. That strikes me as the weakest of reasons, such that it feels more like justification for what they wanted to do. I call bullshat (once again) on their performative claims of a rankers oath.

But as for Intermat? Ya got me. @InterMat Staff, any thoughts here?

Rather than edit to correct I thought I would do the thing I hate, the self-quote, in order to preserve my prior wrong statement.

Alirez's ELO did not go down at all during his redshirt 2024 season. It was just frozen in amber.

Meanwhile, Mendez's ELO took big jumps at the end of the 2024 season with Big10 (dual and tournament) and NCAA results. So really what the algos said was Mendez had a more impressive season in 2024 than Alirez had in 2023.

[Truzzcat]

I think it boils down to Jesse was 29-2 against the field that Alirez went 27-0 against. I would rank Jesse 1 personally and I think he wins it all this year but when you take into account Alirez being 1-0 against Bartlett and not having the cole matthews loss I see how they got there.

[1032004]

9 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

He is on wrestlestat. And wrestlestat also has Alirez three behind Bartlett. Clearly the algo values current results, so skipping a year penalizes Alirez.

Flo says it is because Mendez suffered two loses last year while Mendez was undefeated the prior season. That strikes me as the weakest of reasons, such that it feels more like justification for what they wanted to do. I call bullshat (once again) on their performative claims of a rankers oath.

 

This seems like good enough reason to me.  Especially since Alirez beat one of those two losses (Bartlett) in his only try, although I know Mendez also beat him at B10’s and NCAA’s.  What argument does Mendez have over Alirez unless maybe you start going back to 2022?

[1032004]

You could argue this ranking is inconsistent with ranking O’Toole above Haines, but I disagree.  That’s probably the Cole Matthews factor

[Wrestleknownothing]

22 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

This seems like good enough reason to me.  Especially since Alirez beat one of those two losses (Bartlett) in his only try, although I know Mendez also beat him at B10’s and NCAA’s.  What argument does Mendez have over Alirez unless maybe you start going back to 2022?

Mendez wrestled a tougher schedule in 2024 than Alirez did in 2023.

• For example, while they had identical bonus percentages against D1 opponents who did not forfeit (66.67%) Alirez did it against wrestlers ranked 62 on average while Mendez did it against wrestlers ranked 47 on average. 
• Mendez wrestled a tougher slate of opponents in the regular season, at the conference tournament, at at the NCAA tournament (though the average seed Alirez beat was higher than Mendez at NCAAs).
• 
• Mendez scored more bonus points than Alirez at NCAA's. And Alirez's only bonus (the elusive pinfall) came against a wrestler with a losing record.

Mendez did it more recently than Alirez.

[Wrestleknownothing]

36 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I think it boils down to Jesse was 29-2 against the field that Alirez went 27-0 against. I would rank Jesse 1 personally and I think he wins it all this year but when you take into account Alirez being 1-0 against Bartlett and not having the cole matthews loss I see how they got there.

They were definitely not the same field. See above.

[1032004]

6 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Mendez wrestled a tougher schedule in 2024 than Alirez did in 2023.

• For example, while they had identical bonus percentages against D1 opponents who did not forfeit (66.67%) Alirez did it against wrestlers ranked 62 on average while Mendez did it against wrestlers ranked 47 on average. 
• Mendez wrestled a tougher slate of opponents in the regular season, at the conference tournament, at at the NCAA tournament (though the average seed Alirez beat was higher than Mendez at NCAAs).
• 
• Mendez scored more bonus points than Alirez at NCAA's. And Alirez's only bonus (the elusive pinfall) came against a wrestler with a losing record.

Mendez did it more recently than Alirez.

Bonus isn’t really factored in rankings is it?

Yes Mendez had a tougher schedule overall by virtue of being in the B10, but Alirez still racked up a lot of good wins (as did Mendez of course).  I wouldn’t complain if Mendez was #1, but I think the reasoning to have Alirez #1 makes sense

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

Bonus isn’t really factored in rankings is it?

Yes Mendez had a tougher schedule overall by virtue of being in the B10, but Alirez still racked up a lot of good wins (as did Mendez of course).  I wouldn’t complain if Mendez was #1, but I think the reasoning to have Alirez #1 makes sense

Yeah, I'm not advocating one way or the other. Just responding to your question with a pro-Mendez argument.

[Wrestleknownothing]

If I had to guess I would say Intermat is also penalizing Mendez for the two losses last year.

[Truzzcat]

31 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

They were definitely not the same field. See above.

While I love the chart and info when you boil it down to NCAA's if you swap Mendez and Alirez you have 4 of the top 6 wrestlers are from the same field. Bonus has never been factored into rankings and while I agree strength of schedule is a good metric I am not a fan of dinging someone because he could not wrestle x guy especially when he went undefeated and won NCAA's which is a culmination of the entire country. I think if you had each guys resume without accounting for both wrestling at NCAA's Mendez could come out on top based off of those metrics.

[MPhillips]

30 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If I had to guess I would say

Last time you guessed you lost a bet didn't you?

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Last time you guessed you lost a bet didn't you?

There have been some many more guesses since then. That is just the last one you are aware of.

And, yes.

[Paul158]

From a coaching standpoint I would prefer to have my wrestlers to be under ranked. It gives most wrestlers a lot of motivation during the season. It generally makes your coaching job easier. The are both very good wrestlers but I will take Mendez in March. Mendez as most of you know never took a red shirt. 

[ionel]

6 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There have been some many more guesses since then. That is just the last one you are aware of.

And, yes.

Making use of the hide? 

[The_KC_Godfather]

10 hours ago, silver-medal said:

Curious if others agree, disagree and why?

Disagree. TBH, not sure how much Alirez has wrestled over the past 18 months, but missing time against D1 opponents matters, and Mendez always competing gives him a leg up, imo. That said, Alirez looked insanely good against Edmond of Mizzou (Mizzou fan here so only time I've watched Alirez this season)...it's going to be a fun match to watch.

Do Mendez and Alirez meet up before NCAA's? I don't think so, but could be wrong. If not, I hope it's on opposite sides of the bracket at NCAA's, with Beau on the Alirez side. Not to say Beau deserves that, but I view Alirez at #3 until he proves otherwise...

[Jon_Kozak]

Mendez lost to Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett last year. Alirez beat Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett while going undefeated two years ago. It's really that simple.

I know it might seem weird because Mendez is the returning NCAA champ and beat Alirez in freestyle.  However, we've never counted freestyle results for college rankings and nothing happened in that match - traded shot clock points and Mendez got a step out. 

[Ohio Elite]

6 hours ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Mendez lost to Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett last year. Alirez beat Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett while going undefeated two years ago. It's really that simple.

I know it might seem weird because Mendez is the returning NCAA champ and beat Alirez in freestyle.  However, we've never counted freestyle results for college rankings and nothing happened in that match - traded shot clock points and Mendez got a step out. 

Mendez got a takedown at the end of that match.

[1032004]

6 hours ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Mendez lost to Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett last year. Alirez beat Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett while going undefeated two years ago. It's really that simple.

I know it might seem weird because Mendez is the returning NCAA champ and beat Alirez in freestyle.  However, we've never counted freestyle results for college rankings and nothing happened in that match - traded shot clock points and Mendez got a step out. 

I agree with Alirez #1, but unless I missed it I’m not seeing that he’s ever wrestled Matthews 

edit: ah, looks like it was at a previous All-Star

Edited 1 hour ago by 1032004

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 hours ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Mendez lost to Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett last year. Alirez beat Cole Matthews and Beau Bartlett while going undefeated two years ago. It's really that simple.

I know it might seem weird because Mendez is the returning NCAA champ and beat Alirez in freestyle.  However, we've never counted freestyle results for college rankings and nothing happened in that match - traded shot clock points and Mendez got a step out. 

Is there a time limit to that? AJ Ferrari is 2-0 against Stephen Buchanan (2021), but you have Buchanan #1 and Ferrari#4. Ferrari also has a significantly better record against common opponents than #3 Rocky Elam, and #2 Jacob Cardenas.

[MPhillips]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Is there a time limit to that?

 

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

It's really that simple.

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

 

 

Edited 15 minutes ago by Wrestleknownothing

[Wrestleknownothing]

I just read the Flo justification for ranking Steveson above Starocci in the pound for pound rankings and it turned on loses occurring in 2019 for Steveson and 2021 for Starocci's along with bonus rates (@Truzzcat).

So there must not be a time limit.