At the Debate Tonight

[WrestlingRasta]

I guess I didn’t realize that Florida was not in this country; as well as not realizing the “president has a very direct impact on our well being” only counts if our well being is not so good.  
 

Interesting how that works.  You get boring very quickly. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

I can say that you can’t support your statement and feign confusion to no avail. 

Donald Trump spends half his time claiming he knows more about _________ than anyone. 

He spends the other half claiming he didn't know.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

From Polymarkets (a prediction market):

[Wrestleknownothing]

BTW there are all manner of election things you can bet on:

https://polymarket.com/elections

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

The market for the pre-debate handshake closed at 30% (buy a contract for $0.30 that pays $1 if handshake, and $0 if no handshake).

You heard it hear first. Harris bought a bunch of handshake futures under aliases and then made it happen. Market manipulation in its rawest form. This can not be allowed to happen. 

[jross]

1 hour ago, Offthemat said:

You must have missed the “brought about by the current administration.” and the “this country” parts. 

His house increased in value due to the current administration's impact—high inflation, low supply, and a surge of immigrants needing housing.

It’s a case of haves and have-nots: homeowners can sell at record prices but face the same when buying. Those without homes see ownership becoming a distant dream due to rising costs.

I have a personal home and rental home... and certainly like the value on paper for me while also understanding how frustrating it is for my young work colleagues.  I don't want to think about the costs for my children.

[Ohio Elite]

Great point @jross

Edited September 11 by Ohio Elite

[Offthemat]

So, adjusted for inflation, he’s at or below where he was in 2020?

[Lipdrag]

18 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I am mostly upset with Harris for failing to address the real issues. The cats and dogs of Springfield are facing an existential crisis and as Vice President she has done nothing about it.

I hear the Springfield families have invited Trump to a memorial with them in the pet cemetery.  No cameras allowed.

[WrestlingRasta]

1 hour ago, jross said:

Those without homes see ownership becoming a distant dream due to rising costs.

So….a 25k for first time home buyers, and 6k credit for children would be a good thing right?  Certainly incentive for starting family and buying a home, which is pretty important, right?  I wouldn’t benefit one smidge from such a plan, but I could certainly get behind it. 
 

 

Edited September 11 by WrestlingRasta

[WrestlingRasta]

1 hour ago, jross said:

His house increased in value due to the current administration's impact—high inflation, low supply, and a surge of immigrants needing housing.

Or….because I put about 50k into it knowing I’m going to get 80-100 out.  Again, my decisions and actions have a much greater impact on how I do than the president’s. I would think a so called self accountability man would be more in tune with that. I’m
 

And let me guarantee you something, the immigrants around here are busting their ass but they’re not buying real estate.  They’re renting. And they’re not renting vacation houses. 

Edited September 11 by WrestlingRasta

[WrestlingRasta]

I guess if your theory was accurate, we wouldn’t see this kind of drop in real estate pricing over the last two years.  Guess it must have more to do with individual decision instead…

[jross]

43 minutes ago, WrestlingRasta said:

So….a 25k for first time home buyers, and 6k credit for children would be a good thing right?  Certainly incentive for starting family and buying a home, which is pretty important, right?  I wouldn’t benefit one smidge from such a plan, but I could certainly get behind it. 

This benefits the current home owners, whose home values will increase by more than $25K.  

Sort of like how my used pinball machine values instantly increased $1K+ when the covid money was distributed.  

[jross]

44 minutes ago, WrestlingRasta said:

Or….because I put about 50k into it knowing I’m going to get 80-100 out.  Again, my decisions and actions have a much greater impact on how I do than the president’s. I would think a so called self accountability man would be more in tune with that. I’m

And let me guarantee you something, the immigrants around here are busting their ass but they’re not buying real estate.  They’re renting. And they’re not renting vacation houses. 

When 20M illegals need a place to live, what impact does that have on renting... including apartments and houses?  My 30 year old colleagues are complaining about increased rent prices and can't afford a home.

My home values have doubled without doing anything at all in recent years.  My Kansas neighbor sold his house for 90K more than asking last year.

Less than ten years ago, I remodeled and sold a house that I'd put $40K into improving and didn't get my full return out of it.  I did all the labor; overhauled bathrooms, kitchen, flooring, etc.  That house recently sold for nearly double what I sold it for.  The new owners didn't even repaint the interior or exterior when reselling.

Aside.  I'm sure your house looks a lot better based on your work... congrats!

[VakAttack]

5 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

From Polymarkets (a prediction market):

What do you know about them?  I've heard that it's a Peter Thiel-funded Nate Silver project, but admittedly haven't actually looked into that.   I'm skeptical of Thiel, but Silver has some big hits.  Any indication on the accuracy of their numbers? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

20 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

What do you know about them?  I've heard that it's a Peter Thiel-funded Nate Silver project, but admittedly haven't actually looked into that.   I'm skeptical of Thiel, but Silver has some big hits.  Any indication on the accuracy of their numbers? 

Don't think of them as accurate or inaccurate. Instead they reflect the balance of opinions of the subset of people willing to bet on the outcome. Given enough people they will bend toward accurate. There is something like $900 million bet on this outcome, so probably pretty accurate.

But you have to adjust that some for the potential for market manipulation. As a matter of fact, they believe someone attempted to manipulate this market to win a prediction market bet on the debate, but due to the size of this market, it was not sustainable.

The other market was a bet on who would "win" the debate. They defined win as whoever was leading in the election market during a four hour window a day after the debate. Harris was a big under dog in the debate market, so there was an obvious arbitrage/bet to take Harris to win the debate and then buy enough Harris election futures at the right time to move this market. It just didn't work because the market for the election is too big for one person to move.

Edited September 12 by Wrestleknownothing

[VakAttack]

6 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Don't think of them as accurate or inaccurate. Instead they reflect the balance of opinions of the subset of people willing to bet on the outcome. Given enough people they will bend toward accurate. There is something like $900 million bet on this outcome, so probably pretty accurate.

But you have to adjust that some for the potential for market manipulation. As a matter of fact, they believe someone attempted to manipulate this market to win a prediction market bet on the debate, but due to the size of this market, it was not sustainable.

The other market was a bet on who would "win" the debate. They defined win as whoever was leading in the election market during a four hour window a day after the debate. Harris was a big under dog in the debate market, so there was an obvious arbitrage/bet to take Harris to win the debate and then buy enough Harris election futures at the right time to move this market. It just didn't work because the market for the election is too big for one person to move.

So is it like DraftKings - Politics?

[Lipdrag]

10 hours ago, headshuck said:

Ask the 50 former intelligence officials.

And Donna Brazile.  Isn't it crazy when the Dems actual behavior is more reprehensible than even the conspiracy theorists can conjur?

[Wrestleknownothing]

21 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

So is it like DraftKings - Politics?

Pretty much. Other things beyond politics too. Everything is structured as a futures contract with a zero or one payout. So the prices can be thought of as roughly probability predictions, hence prediction market.

[Lipdrag]

10 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The quote was, "There is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it is born."

I write this as a legitimate question:  There are known actual cases of babies surviving an abortion attempt, being born, but not leaving the room alive.  Are there an equal number of people (actually 2 or 3 times the number of dead babies because at least 2 and maybe more people were in on the illegal death) in jail for it?  Of course, the actual reported number is probably very much lower than the actual occurrence due to the conspirators having every incentive not to report it.   Did that monster from Philadelphia several years ago (Gondell?) go to jail for killing babies after they were born?  Or for some other crime?

I did find this bit of data:  

"Importantly, even with only 10 states having ever required reporting, there are 277 known cases of infants born alive following an abortion."

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Lipdrag said:

I write this as a legitimate question:  There are known actual cases of babies surviving an abortion attempt, being born, but not leaving the room alive.  Are there an equal number of people (actually 2 or 3 times the number of dead babies because at least 2 and maybe more people were in on the illegal death) in jail for it?  Of course, the actual reported number is probably very much lower than the actual occurrence due to the conspirators having every incentive not to report it.   Did that monster from Philadelphia several years ago (Gondell?) go to jail for killing babies after they were born?  Or for some other crime?

I did find this bit of data:  

"Importantly, even with only 10 states having ever required reporting, there are 277 known cases of infants born alive following an abortion."

I do not know the answer to any of your questions. But they are not what Trump claimed, and not what he was corrected about. Trump claimed the former Governor of West Virginia said they would decide to execute babies. Never mind that he got the state wrong, but he so mis-characterized what the former Governor of Virginia said.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Trump saying an hour after the debate he saw 5 polls saying he won the debate with 90%, 60%, 72%, 71%, and 89%. Later he saw 3 more polls saying he won 80% to 20%, 90% , and 92% to 7%.

The dude is pathological.

[Offthemat]

Correction, Sept. 11

The original version of this story mischaracterized as false Donald Trump’s statement accusing Kamala Harris of supporting “transgender operations on illegal aliens in prison” As a presidential candidate in 2019, Harris filled out a questionnaire saying she supported taxpayer-funded gender transition treatment for detained immigrants.
 

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2024/09/11/nolte-time-issues-humiliating-correction-admitting-kamala-supports-taxpayer-funded-gender-surgery-for-illegals/

[ionel]

13 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The dude is pathological.

There is one very good reason to vote for Trump:  so he can't run in 2028 or 2032.  Think about it.

That said I'm working on a deal to buy a lettuce farm its gonna be HUUGE the next 4 years.   

[Wrestleknownothing]

6 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

 

Correction, Sept. 11

The original version of this story mischaracterized as false Donald Trump’s statement accusing Kamala Harris of supporting “transgender operations on illegal aliens in prison” As a presidential candidate in 2019, Harris filled out a questionnaire saying she supported taxpayer-funded gender transition treatment for detained immigrants.
 

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2024/09/11/nolte-time-issues-humiliating-correction-admitting-kamala-supports-taxpayer-funded-gender-surgery-for-illegals/

More importantly, did you know that kids are being sent to school in the morning as one gender and then coming home as a different gender?