MFS 57kg 2024 Olympics

[oldschool]

Great writeup by @Jon_Kozak https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/12590878-57-kg-2024-olympic-wrestling-preview-spencer-lee-headlines-deep-field

What's everyone's predictions here?

I'm just hoping we get to see how Spencer fares against the best of the field.

[Truzzcat]

I have been on record that Harutyunyan is my pick however, after seeing the ranking series entries and seeing that he went 61 I wonder about the weight cut which is the case for everyone at the weight aside from spencer in terms of the top guys. I am hopeful that gives him the slight edge I feel he needs.

[mspart]

I think S Lee is the bad draw and I think he feels so also.   I hope he wrestles that way. 

mspart

[CHROMEBIRD]

On 5/30/2024 at 5:18 AM, Truzzcat said:

I have been on record that Harutyunyan is my pick however, after seeing the ranking series entries and seeing that he went 61 I wonder about the weight cut which is the case for everyone at the weight aside from spencer in terms of the top guys. I am hopeful that gives him the slight edge I feel he needs.

I'm not sure if the cut is a problem. He's an actual tweener, isn't he?

[oldschool]

Will Micic be as much of a factor in a non-serbia-controlled weigh-in? 

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

1 hour ago, oldschool said:

Will Micic be as much of a factor in a non-serbia-controlled weigh-in? 

Did you just call Shenanigans? I think I heard somebody call Shenanigans.

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

This weight is by far the toughest in the world. And I was trying to figure out how the Olympics could be a little bit better short of removing the two Continental Qualifiers from Africa and Oceania, and the only thing that I came up with was having Thomas Gilman and Zane Richards gain dual citizenship with Australia and the Solomon Islands. 

There are 10 wrestlers who wouldn't shock me if they won. My favorite is Spencer, but the winner is going to have to go through an absolutely amazing gauntlet.

One consideration that I think will play a huge part is this: There are only 16 wrestlers in the bracket, which means straight off, you are almost assured of getting a tough out in the first round, and there will be no byes (right?), which additionally means that the wrestlers have to make the cut, wrestle right off the bat, get little time to recover, and then wrestle again. 

This will be tough for the really big guys, the ones who'd benefit from a 61 kg weight.  

 

[CHROMEBIRD]

34 minutes ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

This weight is by far the toughest in the world. And I was trying to figure out how the Olympics could be a little bit better short of removing the two Continental Qualifiers from Africa and Oceania, and the only thing that I came up with was having Thomas Gilman and Zane Richards gain dual citizenship with Australia and the Solomon Islands. 

I kind of wouldn't mind seeing Olympic wrestling was held as a dual-style team event, like the World Cup, with Worlds happening every year for individual titles*. That way, countries could have rosters with multiple wrestlers competing at a weight or at multiple weights, and it might restore ten weight classes to the Olympics since it would be faster(?) with fewer medals overall. Dunno if it would help expand the sport globally, though. 

 

* or maybe flip it so that worlds are team events every year and the Olympics are individual tournaments, idk

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

1 hour ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

I kind of wouldn't mind seeing Olympic wrestling was held as a dual-style team event, like the World Cup, with Worlds happening every year for individual titles*. That way, countries could have rosters with multiple wrestlers competing at a weight or at multiple weights, and it might restore ten weight classes to the Olympics since it would be faster(?) with fewer medals overall. Dunno if it would help expand the sport globally, though. 

 

* or maybe flip it so that worlds are team events every year and the Olympics are individual tournaments, idk

I think that is a fantastic idea. That would be so cool. 

[Truzzcat]

On 5/31/2024 at 5:05 PM, oldschool said:

Will Micic be as much of a factor in a non-serbia-controlled weigh-in? 

I watched one of his youtube videos when he wrestled in bulgaria and he was shedding a few lbs to make weight at what I assume was +2kg for 61kg so that boy is big.

[Doublehalf]

On 5/31/2024 at 7:25 PM, CHROMEBIRD said:

I kind of wouldn't mind seeing Olympic wrestling was held as a dual-style team event, like the World Cup, with Worlds happening every year for individual titles*. That way, countries could have rosters with multiple wrestlers competing at a weight or at multiple weights, and it might restore ten weight classes to the Olympics since it would be faster(?) with fewer medals overall. Dunno if it would help expand the sport globally, though. 

 

* or maybe flip it so that worlds are team events every year and the Olympics are individual tournaments, idk

This is probably one of the coolest ideas I've heard in a longggg time. This would be absolutely amazing and be so fun to watch and cheer for... 

[Truzzcat]

4 hours ago, Doublehalf said:

This is probably one of the coolest ideas I've heard in a longggg time. This would be absolutely amazing and be so fun to watch and cheer for... 

my only qualm would be how much more infuriating the transfer system would be than it already is.

[CHROMEBIRD]

1 hour ago, Truzzcat said:

my only qualm would be how much more infuriating the transfer system would be than it already is.

Right. A federation could get stacked with transfer talent, but if Worlds was held every year for individual titles (with 1 rep per country) that would limit the # of switches. The current rules also only allow athletes to switch nationalities once at the Senior level, and I believe they cannot change allegiances if they've competed for their home country within the last 3 years.

[juniorvarsity]

Stevan Micic put out a video of him training at Cornell. Posted sometime in the past week. Micic looks bigger than Vito. Both guys are like 5'6"/5'7". 

 

[Truzzcat]

1 hour ago, juniorvarsity said:

Stevan Micic put out a video of him training at Cornell. Posted sometime in the past week. Micic looks bigger than Vito. Both guys are like 5'6"/5'7". 

 

I think he walks around at 145-150 he did a ranking series event late winter early spring that was +2kg and in the video he mentioned he was not really cutting he just had to shed a few kilos.

[Doublehalf]

On 6/10/2024 at 1:03 PM, juniorvarsity said:

Stevan Micic put out a video of him training at Cornell. Posted sometime in the past week. Micic looks bigger than Vito. Both guys are like 5'6"/5'7". 

 

Was watching this without sound so just focusing on motion and the movement and it's wild how precise, quick and  intentional guys are at this level with their technique... 

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

On 6/12/2024 at 12:11 AM, Doublehalf said:

Was watching this without sound so just focusing on motion and the movement and it's wild how precise, quick and  intentional guys are at this level with their technique... 

 

After an amazing match, Zane Richards told the interviewer that he made a few mistakes. Maybe a hand was a couple of inches lower on the leg than he wanted, or perhaps his thumb was straight and not curled around the muscle. It really is a game of perfect technique. These folks, especially the wee ones, remind me of MLB shortstops taking batting practice. They glide into their positions effortlessly, then use perfect form to complete the task, looking like a pro the whole time. 

On another note, I have decided to go all in on Spencer Lee. It is not a secret that I hate Iowa. If Iowa was drowning in a pond, I would shoot it, is what I always say. However, I saw a basketball thread on Twitter where people were using Spencer's mother as a meme, and it disgusted me. 

I should've known not to read basketball Twitter....

That was my mistake. What I felt was simpatico with her. She is me. I am her. We are both fans, and I get crushed in almost the same way when an ILLINI loses in the consolation bracket of the MSU Open. So, as the Olympics draws closer, I'll be on social media putting into the minds of Spencer's opponents that they have already lost. 

Which I think is true, by the way. 

Finally, Spencer's mother reminded of a meme that I did years ago on a totally different and completely antipodal subject—Charles Dickens movies—when I think of dyed-in-the-wool wrestling fans like us. This is it:

 

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

OPERATION PSYCH-OUT ON THE FOURTH OF JULY:

 

 

[nhs67]

18 hours ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

OPERATION PSYCH-OUT ON THE FOURTH OF JULY:

 

 

Awww went to repost that and couldn't find it.

[Takuto_Otoguro]

Spencer has no shot at gold. Grow up guys. 

[Truzzcat]

6 hours ago, Takuto_Otoguro said:

Spencer has no shot at gold. Grow up guys. 

I don't think Spencer has great odds but to say he has no shot is a bit insane to me. I would have probably said Stevan had no shot after seeing his draw last year, and now the field is weaker without Russia. Abakarov seems like a very bad matchup for Spencer but he could very well beat anyone in the field after all he beat Gillman two in a row.

[Spladle08]

8 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

I don't think Spencer has great odds but to say he has no shot is a bit insane to me. I would have probably said Stevan had no shot after seeing his draw last year, and now the field is weaker without Russia. Abakarov seems like a very bad matchup for Spencer but he could very well beat anyone in the field after all he beat Gillman two in a row.

Spicy Lee has as good a shot as many  
He isn't the favorite but even the favorite isn't the favorite. Just whoever is feeling it that day, and whoever comes out on the right end of a 3-3 decision somewhere along the way.  Similar to 65kg, not the exact same but similar. Both Champs are going to have matches where you go "If not for this questionable moment, he's hoping to be pulled back in for Bronze". 

Spicy has a chance just like the Pain Train known as Zain has a chance.  I'm not picking either to medal, gun to my head, but if you told me either made the finals I would be 0% shocked. I'm beyond excited to see how these play out. 

Also I wanna see Tsabalov vs Dake (nobody asked) but while Dake is a clearer favorite than can be found at the 2 lower weights, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a predicament against a cagey vet. 

Cheers to you all and congrats in advance to whoever gets to say, "I told you so" because they called "heads" instead of "tails" 

[4xJVchamp]

One thing I believe Spencer has going for him is him finally being able to compete on the senior circuit after not touching freestyle for a while. I believe he will make the necessary adjustments.  Just like how he lost his freshman year then went on a tear. Not saying he’s gonna dominate to the extent he did in college but he will be a force. Also not to mention that he’s as healthy as he’s been in years. 

[Spladle08]

23 minutes ago, 4xJVchamp said:

One thing I believe Spencer has going for him is him finally being able to compete on the senior circuit after not touching freestyle for a while. I believe he will make the necessary adjustments.  Just like how he lost his freshman year then went on a tear. Not saying he’s gonna dominate to the extent he did in college but he will be a force. Also not to mention that he’s as healthy as he’s been in years. 

Yes Spencer can finally compete, he just hasn't very much.....
I'm not sure what "necessary adjustments" there are to be made. This isn't Freshman vs Upperclassman during college season.
This is often injured, questionable from neutral but.... elite turner vs guys who have been consistently doing it for years, explosive little athletes, 1 match elimination (essentially)

Spicy Lee is such a  danger on the mat, him beating anyone won't surprise me. Him making the team is  proof enough that he is going to be competitive, but him struggling so hard with Zou is also proof enough that feeling those top guys a few times might have been advantageous for our rep.

Hope he wins, but think he might take a quick L
 

[nhs67]

7 hours ago, Spladle08 said:

Yes Spencer can finally compete, he just hasn't very much.....
I'm not sure what "necessary adjustments" there are to be made. This isn't Freshman vs Upperclassman during college season.
This is often injured, questionable from neutral but.... elite turner vs guys who have been consistently doing it for years, explosive little athletes, 1 match elimination (essentially)

Spicy Lee is such a  danger on the mat, him beating anyone won't surprise me. Him making the team is  proof enough that he is going to be competitive, but him struggling so hard with Zou is also proof enough that feeling those top guys a few times might have been advantageous for our rep.

Hope he wins, but think he might take a quick L
 

I think the only danger to Lee is if he runs in to a big 57 KG guy that he can't turn early.  I know saying Abakarov is a copout because he is a shit matchup for anyone, really, but that is honestly the only tough match I see him having.  I don't think there is another 57 KG that can stop his early turn.  His tank is his only question right now and hopefully before the Oly Games injury doesn't rear it's head again.