No ID required. License to steal.

[Lipdrag]

W'Rasta - your points are interesting.  However, I see things slightly differently.  Trump has never enjoyed the full weight of the Republican party.  The Never Trumpers on the right in 2016 and 2020 were loud and proud.  If conservative voters are aware enough to even know of nearly invisible bureaucrats about presidential fitness I think they are more likely to stay home or write in Mickey Mouse than vote for the most leftist candidate in history.  I think the number of stay-at-homes / 3rd party voters on the right will be quite a bit fewer than the following who will move to Trump:

• marginal rates of BIPOCs moving to Trump
• marginal rates of single women who resent men in their bathroom
• marginal rates of soccer moms who now have to buy generic Mac'n'Cheese rather than Kraft Deluxe
• marginal rates of young single men (historically a very low voter turnout) who are sick of being told about all their privilege

I know we are talking about popular vote over/under prognostications so, without doing actual population growth models and forecasts (I leave that to our esteemed colleague and noted swimming expert, WrestleKnowNothing) I stand by my seat of the pants call:  Trump - 80 million votes:  Harris - loses if 86 million and wins if 87 million.

However, to veer a bit to an electoral college analysis:  Many of these individuals live in urban/suburban areas so they have an exaggerated effect in swing states.  If they simply lower the margin of victory of Harris in 5 or 6 counties (those containing Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc).  Just like last time:  It all comes down to when the polling station counts are suspended on election night, what the Trump lead is, and if the reserve ballots can be counted to get her over the top in these cities.

Now, what is your call for the number of votes Harris needs to win?

[Danny Deck]

Among other things states could do to increase faith in the vote, updating their laws regarding when they can start counting mail in votes would help a lot. I have a strong preference for all states adopting Florida's rules. Processing and counting begins up to 25 days before election day.

PA and Wisconsin cannot begin processing until 7 am election day, so we will be waiting a long time again for both to certify their results. You would think the legislatures would want to fix this, but I guess not.

 

[mspart]

I think WA starts counting that night.   All mail in vote.   So it takes awhile but don't anyone get their boxers in a bunch, WA is solidly D for national politics.   We have some initiatives here that may swing the governors race to R for the first time in 40-50 years.   We've had Governor Doofus (Inslee) for 4 terms and now Doofus Jr (Bob Ferguson) want his chance and he is worse than his daddy.   That debate happens tonight and I want to see the R wipe the mat with this guy.  

mspart

[Danny Deck]

I think the processing part is the biggest thing that needs to be moved forward. Once you have them all ready to feed into the counting machine, it can't take that long. Washington does allow them to process them upon reciept, but not count until election day. 

Washington only requires mail in ballots to be post marked by election day, which would way slow down the count. I think that's for sure a thing that would be good to tighten up too, should really be what's in hand on election day.

[WrestlingRasta]

4 hours ago, Lipdrag said:

W'Rasta - your points are interesting.  However, I see things slightly differently.  Trump has never enjoyed the full weight of the Republican party.  The Never Trumpers on the right in 2016 and 2020 were loud and proud.  If conservative voters are aware enough to even know of nearly invisible bureaucrats about presidential fitness I think they are more likely to stay home or write in Mickey Mouse than vote for the most leftist candidate in history.  I think the number of stay-at-homes / 3rd party voters on the right will be quite a bit fewer than the following who will move to Trump:

• marginal rates of BIPOCs moving to Trump
• marginal rates of single women who resent men in their bathroom
• marginal rates of soccer moms who now have to buy generic Mac'n'Cheese rather than Kraft Deluxe
• marginal rates of young single men (historically a very low voter turnout) who are sick of being told about all their privilege

I know we are talking about popular vote over/under prognostications so, without doing actual population growth models and forecasts (I leave that to our esteemed colleague and noted swimming expert, WrestleKnowNothing) I stand by my seat of the pants call:  Trump - 80 million votes:  Harris - loses if 86 million and wins if 87 million.

However, to veer a bit to an electoral college analysis:  Many of these individuals live in urban/suburban areas so they have an exaggerated effect in swing states.  If they simply lower the margin of victory of Harris in 5 or 6 counties (those containing Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc).  Just like last time:  It all comes down to when the polling station counts are suspended on election night, what the Trump lead is, and if the reserve ballots can be counted to get her over the top in these cities.

Now, what is your call for the number of votes Harris needs to win?

Granted, “full weight” is an exaggeration, fair is fair.  But I think it goes without saying that he has significantly less support from within the party than he did the first two times, particularly in 2020. I’d venture to say he has less support…from within his own party than any presidential candidate before, or maybe more fair to say has more from within the party endorsing and voting for the other party. 
 

As for what count she needs to get to to win….no idea. But I am fairly confident it’s not going to be as close as many believe. I don’t think he’s going to hit the number he did last time by a long shot. I believe there are a number of conservatives/republicans who are just simply not going to vote that line. They can’t bring themselves to vote for the democrat…but they’re tired and want to move past the Trump era. 

[Scouts Honor]

 

[Scouts Honor]

 

[Scouts Honor]

 

[mspart]

Nope, nothing to see here folks. 

mspart

[Scouts Honor]

 

[wrestlingguy]

1 hour ago, Scouts Honor said:

 

Never!!! This must be Russian disinformation. Don't threaten democracy with the truth.

[Lipdrag]

1 hour ago, wrestlingguy said:

Never!!! This must be Russian disinformation. Don't threaten democracy with the truth.

BASELESS.  NO EVIDENCE.  51 intelligence officials are about to issue a letter.

[Scouts Honor]

 

[ionel]

59 minutes ago, Scouts Honor said:

 

Surely 450,000 can't make a difference in a big state like Oklahoma?  Dead people have been voting in Illinois for a half century plus, where in the Constitution does it say they can't vote?  I see a Supreme Court case on the horizon.  

[Lipdrag]

It is BASELESS and there is NO EVIDENCE those people are dead.  No court has ruled they are dead.  This is voter suppression and certainly racist.  Now give the DNC those ballots so they can fill them out properly for all those dead, felonious, and no longer here people.

[Paul158]

4 hours ago, Lipdrag said:

It is BASELESS and there is NO EVIDENCE those people are dead.  No court has ruled they are dead.  This is voter suppression and certainly racist.  Now give the DNC those ballots so they can fill them out properly for all those dead, felonious, and no longer here people.

They just need to update their new address to The Wellington Memorial Cemetary. 

[Saylors_Tiny_Willie]

Oklahoma has been under republican control since forever.

How did it accumulate 450,000 incorrect voter registrations in the first place?

It sounds to me like the GOP can't govern.


P.S. Being registered doesn't mean any of these people actually cast a vote in any recent elections.
P.P.S. Voter fraud is vanishingly rare, despite what the fear mongers would have you believe.
https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Briefing_Memo_Debunking_Voter_Fraud_Myth.pdf

Edited September 20 by Saylors_Tiny_Willie

[Offthemat]

Trans-Republicans.  

[Scouts Honor]

there is a ballot

people are mailed ballots all the time.

gma passed away... a ballot was sent to her for years after

[Saylors_Tiny_Willie]

Poor GOP, governing is HARD!

[Scouts Honor]

 

[Saylors_Tiny_Willie]

Low energy. Sad.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-political-action-committees-voter-canvassing-musk-0c1c095a6516b7bcbc80bf94fe0fe45a

[Lipdrag]

9 hours ago, Scouts Honor said:

 

BASELESS and NO EVIDENCE of exactly the election fraud your eyes see.  

[Scouts Honor]

it's not happening

 

[braves121]

56 minutes ago, Scouts Honor said:

it's not happening

 

The same thing happened with AZ, but they found 100,000 possible non citizen voters but the conservative state Supreme Court ruled all these non citizens can cast full ballots this election since they discovered a majority of these non citizens were registered republicans. So i guess thing isn’t that it’s not happening, but that republicans are ok with it when it benefits them