#1 seed confidence rankings

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Rank the #1 seeds by your confidence they will win NCAAs.

My take:

1. KOT - 99% (beaten Carr over and over again and is familiar with Mesenbrink)
2. Keck - 95% (shown to be the class of the weight)
3. Brooks - 90% (10% chance is solely due to Hidlay)
4. Kerk - 80% (Yonger is on fire. Feldman took Kerk down)
5. Haines - 75% (Saldate/Lewan will give him a close match; Shapiro or Andonian could take him out)
6. Lovett - 60% (Gomez could catch him)
7. Fix - 50% (Crookham or Father Time could catch the almost 30 year old college senior)
8. Mendez - 40% (Woods, Bartlett)
9. Lewis - 30% (Assuming Stallroci is healthy)
10. Davis - 10% (Crazy weight where I think some lower seeded 125ers have better odds of willing it all, like Ayala)

Edited March 14 by Jimmy Cinnabon

[Ragu]

1. Keck - 99%

2. Kerk - 70% (Bastida could give issues)

3. Brooks - 60% (Hidlay is that dude)

4. Mendez - 50%

5. Haines - 45%

6. Lovett - 45%

7. KOT - 40%

8. Fix - 26%

9. Davis - 20%

10. Lewis - 15% 

[Wrestleknownothing]

1. Brooks - 80%

2. Keckeisen - 75%

3. Kervliet - 65%

4. Haines  - 65%

5. Lovett - 55%

6. Mendez - 50%

7. O'Toole - 42%

8. Fix - 30%

9. Davis - 25%

10. Lewis - 15%

[Elevator]

last year Spencer Lee would have polled in the high 90's and probably been #1.

I do not think anyone is above 80% as the competition is fierce, style matchups can be quirky, ther can be an element of luck, and there is always injury risk.

[BloodRound]

1. Brooks - 95%

2. Keckeisen - 85%

3. O'Toole - 80%

4. Kerklivet - 70%

5. Haines - 69%

6. Mendez - 50%

7. Lovett - 45%

8. Lewis - 10%

9. Davis - 5%

10. Fix - 2%

 

I just feel like Fix is destined to not have an NCAA title at this point.

Edited March 14 by BloodRound

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, Elevator said:

last year Spencer Lee would have polled in the high 90's and probably been #1.

I do not think anyone is above 80% as the competition is fierce, style matchups can be quirky, ther can be an element of luck, and there is always injury risk.

we have a bingo

[Tigerfan]

20 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

1. Brooks - 80%

2. Keckeisen - 75%

3. Kervliet - 65%

4. Haines  - 65%

5. Lovett - 55%

6. Mendez - 50%

7. O'Toole - 42%

8. Fix - 30%

9. Davis - 25%

10. Lewis - 15%

I feel like you’re cheating, or have access to super secret data that informs your choices. Hardly a level playing field. 
 

On a more personal note, your relative lack of confidence in KOT is a trigger. Please provide a warning prior to posting any similar hate speech. If you’d like to reply, I’ll be in my safe space. 

[Elevator]

50 minutes ago, Elevator said:

last year Spencer Lee would have polled in the high 90's and probably been #1.

I do not think anyone is above 80% as the competition is fierce, style matchups can be quirky, ther can be an element of luck, and there is always injury risk.

I should add that the officiating - even with video review - can be unpredictable as people are people.  Not meant as a knock on these underpaid dedicated souls that are so important to the sport.

[Elevator]

50 minutes ago, BloodRound said:

1. Brooks - 95%

2. Keckeisen - 85%

3. O'Toole - 80%

4. Kerklivet - 70%

5. Haines - 69%

6. Mendez - 50%

7. Lovett - 45%

8. Lewis - 10%

9. Davis - 5%

10. Fix - 2%

 

I just feel like Fix is destined to not have an NCAA title at this point.

Lewis went from about 25% to 10% when the seeds came out.  THe #9 seed to Starocci may be "fair" to him in some sense - but it is not fair to Lewis relative to seeds 2 - 5.

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

52 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

we have a bingo

You don’t know nothin 

[Wrestleknownothing]

23 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

I feel like you’re cheating, or have access to super secret data that informs your choices. Hardly a level playing field. 
 

On a more personal note, your relative lack of confidence in KOT is a trigger. Please provide a warning prior to posting any similar hate speech. If you’d like to reply, I’ll be in my safe space. 

Believe me, I hated myself for typing that. But even at 42% (ouch), I think that makes him the clear favorite at 165. I would put Carr around 30%, Mesenbrink in the 25% range, and the field around 3%

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

You don’t know nothin 

I have been tryin' to tell that to you people...

[Show_Me]

 

1. Keckeisen - 80% 

2. Kerkvliet - 75%

3. Brooks - 70%

4. Haines  - 60%

5. Lovett - 55%

6. Mendez - 50%

7. O'Toole - 40%

8. Fix - 30%

9. Davis - 20%

10. Lewis - 15%

[Nittany]

#1 seeds take 1st about 52% of the time but AA almost 97% of the time (across weights and years going back to 1999).  9+ seeds DNP almost 94% of the time.

[MidwestMan]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Believe me, I hated myself for typing that. But even at 42% (ouch), I think that makes him the clear favorite at 165. I would put Carr around 30%, Mesenbrink in the 25% range, and the field around 3%

"Well, if you put it that way!"

[1032004]

3 hours ago, Elevator said:

Lewis went from about 25% to 10% when the seeds came out.  THe #9 seed to Starocci may be "fair" to him in some sense - but it is not fair to Lewis relative to seeds 2 - 5.

This doesn’t make any sense, if we’re talking odds to win Lewis still would have had to beat him.  Before Starocci’s injury I would’ve had him at 99%, afterwards maybe 95% with Lewis getting 4% of the remaining 5%.

So, I’ll go:

Brooks 95%

Kerk 80%

Keckeisen 75%

Haines 50%

Lovett 45%

O’Toole 40%

Fix 25%

Mendez 25%

Davis 8%

Lewis 4%

[KCMO2]

5 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Rank the #1 seeds by your confidence they will win NCAAs.

My take:

1. KOT - 99% (beaten Carr over and over again and is familiar with Mesenbrink)
 

KOT and Carr are 2-2 over the last 14 months vs each other.  I think KOT will win 165, but 99% confidence with Carr, MM, and Hamiti there is just slightly dumb..

Edited March 14 by KCMO2

[Wrestleknownothing]

6 minutes ago, KCMO2 said:

KOT and Carr are 2-2 over the last 14 months vs each other.  I think KOT will win 165, but 99% confidence with Carr, MM, and Hamiti there is just slightly dumb..

Now you are getting Jimmy

[The_KC_Godfather]

Had I not seen what Vito did in the finals last year to RBY, I would say Brooks is unbeatable. But, clearly, never say never…

[jross]

1 hour ago, KCMO2 said:

KOT and Carr are 2-2 over the last 14 months vs each other.  I think KOT will win 165, but 99% confidence with Carr, MM, and Hamiti there is just slightly dumb..

What about the Hall match Friday morning?

[billyhoyle]

3 hours ago, The_KC_Godfather said:

Had I not seen what Vito did in the finals last year to RBY, I would say Brooks is unbeatable. But, clearly, never say never…

Given your handle, I understand why you would have immeasurable respect for Vito.  I just don't think he has any chance of beating Brooks though.  

[KCMO2]

12 hours ago, jross said:

What about the Hall match Friday morning?

Definitely a tough one.   That was his closest match of the year,  but also his worst.  After a very uninspiring 1-6 first period,  KOT outscored Hall 7-1 the rest of the way, which I think is probably more indicative of how close the two are.  That match almost guarantees though that KOT will not look past him next week. 

Edited March 15 by KCMO2

[Elevator]

13 hours ago, The_KC_Godfather said:

Had I not seen what Vito did in the finals last year to RBY, I would say Brooks is unbeatable. But, clearly, never say never…

Good point - also semis w Spencer Lee.    Back in the day it seemed TJ Williams was unbeatable and he too went down in the semis w a flat performance.  Happens.