Who is making the biggest moves?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Which teams have made the biggest moves in the first few weeks of the season?

Below is the difference between the expected AA's per team based on Intermat's pre-season rankings and the current expectation based on their 11/22 rankings.

Iowa State, Michigan and Va Tech are making the biggest moves on the plus side. Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn, and Ohio State are moving in the wrong direction early in the season.

[Ban Basketball]

Given the fact that the rasslin season doesn't really begin until January, my best advice would be to tune in later.  

[Husker_Du]

if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up.

[Ban Basketball]

  On 11/26/2022 at 6:11 AM, Husker_Du said:

if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up.

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Now THERE'S a deep thought, eh, friends?!

[Husker_Du]

imagine being so enlightened that you come on a wrestling message board and suggest you not worry about talking wrestling for a few months.

genius. 

[GreatWhiteNorth]

  On 11/26/2022 at 6:11 AM, Husker_Du said:

if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up.

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Easy there, king brain. He's right, no "big moves" are being made until after the holidays.

If you are talking gambling? I think you made a specific forum for that. Good place to go for such talk.

Golden rule always applies - "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you"

It is the holiday season, let's all try to be nice.

[Husker_Du]

perhaps we should just shut down the boards until january.

here i was under the impression we wanted to talk wrestling.

apparently knownothing was too. silly us. 

[Theo Brixton]

LOL, what's the over/under on how long it will be before Ban starts posting exclusively with NJD?

[Crablegs]

  On 11/26/2022 at 1:29 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Which teams have made the biggest moves in the first few weeks of the season?

Below is the difference between the expected AA's per team based on Intermat's pre-season rankings and the current expectation based on their 11/22 rankings.

Iowa State, Michigan and Va Tech are making the biggest moves on the plus side. Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn, and Ohio State are moving in the wrong direction early in the season.

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How do you get this number?  What is 0.1 expected AA? Just curious your method.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 11/26/2022 at 12:16 PM, Crablegs said:

How do you get this number?  What is 0.1 expected AA? Just curious your method.  

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Good question. I calculated the probability any one seed ends as an AA based on results from 2010 - 2022. This is what that looks like:

 

If you just count the wrestlers ranked 8 or higher, it ignores the fact, for example, that of the last 120 wrestlers seeded 8, only 60 finished in the top 8. Even a 1 seed is not a guarantee to finish as an AA, historically.

So, I sum the probabilities associated with each team's current rankings (thereby equating ranking to seed). In that way you get expected AA. So a change of 0.1 can be thought of as a team increasing the probability that one of their wrestlers will AA by 10%. This is roughly the same as having a wrestler move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed.

Thanks for asking @Crablegs, sometimes I rush to the final thought without posting all the ones that came before.

 

[Crablegs]

  On 11/26/2022 at 1:51 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Good question. I calculated the probability any one seed ends as an AA based on results from 2010 - 2022. This is what that looks like:

 

If you just count the wrestlers ranked 8 or higher, it ignores the fact, for example, that of the last 120 wrestlers seeded 8, only 60 finished in the top 8. Even a 1 seed is not a guarantee to finish as an AA, historically.

So, I sum the probabilities associated with each team's current rankings (thereby equating ranking to seed). In that way you get expected AA. So a change of 0.1 can be thought of as a team increasing the probability that one of their wrestlers will AA by 10%. This is roughly the same as having a wrestler move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed.

Thanks for asking @Crablegs, sometimes I rush to the final thought without posting all the ones that came before.

 

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Awesome stuff!  Thanks for explaining.  
 

Very interesting and I think a good way of looking at things. Can you also show the total expected AA in addition to the change?  I’m an ISU fan for example and am curious if that change in one more AA moves them from 3 to 4 or 4 to 5 in your calculations.

[Idaho]

Interesting…. Being an OSUw fan I would have thought we would have a positive number with Belton and Olguin improving their ranking 

looking forward to the first shake up in Vegas! 

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 11/26/2022 at 2:21 PM, Crablegs said:

Awesome stuff!  Thanks for explaining.  
 

Very interesting and I think a good way of looking at things. Can you also show the total expected AA in addition to the change?  I’m an ISU fan for example and am curious if that change in one more AA moves them from 3 to 4 or 4 to 5 in your calculations.

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[Wrestleknownothing]

ISU by the numbers @Crablegs

two notes: I do not have the 11/15 intermat rankings and I updated the probabilities in early November so you see a slight change in 197 that has nothing to do with a rank change.

[GreatWhiteNorth]

  On 11/26/2022 at 9:20 AM, Husker_Du said:

perhaps we should just shut down the boards until january.

here i was under the impression we wanted to talk wrestling.

apparently knownothing was too. silly us. 

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Some of us are fans, others of us are super fans.

Analyzing every inch of what is happening right now is legit. Waiting for things to start to shake themselves out before getting too fired up is also legit.

Thankfully, we don't all have to look at everything the same way.

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 11/26/2022 at 2:45 PM, Idaho said:

Interesting…. Being an OSUw fan I would have thought we would have a positive number with Belton and Olguin improving their ranking 

looking forward to the first shake up in Vegas! 

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OSUw breakdown:

[ionel]

  On 11/27/2022 at 9:14 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

OSUw breakdown:

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but in two weeks ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Idaho]

  On 11/27/2022 at 9:14 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

OSUw breakdown:

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Interesting... Thanks for the work on this! 

 

[BerniePragle]

Amazing.  WKN not only gives us a peek behind the curtain, he also gives us acting lessons while he's at it.  As always, Thanks for the effort, the insight, and the explanation.  It will be interesting to see how things shake out.

[Ban Basketball]

  On 11/26/2022 at 8:56 AM, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Easy there, king brain. He's right, no "big moves" are being made until after the holidays.

 

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Exactly.  A lot of people don't really start rasslin much until January, getting their weight under control and "beginning" the season with the dual season.

[nhs67]

  On 11/26/2022 at 9:20 AM, Husker_Du said:

here i was under the impression we wanted to talk wrestling.

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Fake news, obvi.

[nhs67]

  On 11/27/2022 at 9:16 PM, ionel said:

but in two weeks ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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You mean five, correct?  We are just in dev mode because wrestling hasn't actually started yet.