Seriously, Michigan?

[mspart]

Crime is up because the police have been defunded and prosecutors don't prosecute and city councils are not concerned, and there is a no bail thing going on.   So we are not getting these folks off the street.   If they are arrested, they are let go quickly after.  Hence they re-offend and crime rates go up accordingly.   There is no reason not to for these folks.  JMHO. 

mspart

[Ban Basketball]

Be careful whom you're listening to, friends, when it comes to these issues.  AM radyo and Tattletale "News" is only interested in making people fearful and angry so that you will vote against the people that they fear.  HUD McVeigh Hannity is the chief culprit.  I shall provide some professional insight.

1.  Contrary to current popular mythology, crime in the U.S. has essentially been in freefall since 1991, including today.  Yes, there has been a temporary uptick in the homicide rate in the past two years, but crime, on the whole has been falling.  The homicide rate is also expected to begin its freefall again, as it was before.  

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/31/violent-crime-is-a-key-midterm-voting-issue-but-what-does-the-data-say/

2.  There has not been widespread defunding of the police.  

https://abcnews.go.com/US/defunding-claims-police-funding-increased-us-cities/story?id=91511971

3.  Only two States and D.C. have either eliminated cash bail (Illinois), or greatly reduced it (New Jersey).

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/22/970378490/illinois-becomes-first-state-to-eliminate-cash-bail

They've been making fantasy reality and reality fantasy since I was banned on these very rasslin' forums.  Remember me using that slogan then, friends?

Open Borders!

Edited November 17, 2022 by Ban Basketball

[uncle bernard]

21 hours ago, Nailbender said:

"crime is not a serious problem in this country and we should let a lot of people out of jail."

You might be on to something. You think crime will still be down if we let "a lot" of them out? If so, which ones? 

to start, non-violent drug offenders. war on drugs is a failure and destroys families and communities, which in turn perpetuates more crime. that's nearly half a million people currently.

[uncle bernard]

20 hours ago, mspart said:

Crime is up because the police have been defunded and prosecutors don't prosecute and city councils are not concerned, and there is a no bail thing going on.   So we are not getting these folks off the street.   If they are arrested, they are let go quickly after.  Hence they re-offend and crime rates go up accordingly.   There is no reason not to for these folks.  JMHO. 

mspart

none of this is based in reality. get off the internet.

[Nailbender]

3 hours ago, uncle bernard said:

to start, non-violent drug offenders. war on drugs is a failure and destroys families and communities, which in turn perpetuates more crime. that's nearly half a million people currently.

Define non-violent. Sellers, makers, users? All of them? Does beating your wife on meth count? How about neglecting your kids?

[mspart]

6 hours ago, uncle bernard said:

none of this is based in reality. get off the internet.

The guy that ran over police cadets in CA is out of holding now.   That's reality.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-11-17/investigation-into-whittier-crash-continues

Driver is released after arrest in deputy recruit crash that sheriff called ‘deliberate act’

This is repeated over and over.  

 

Cutting funding for police.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/08/13/at-least-13-cities-are-defunding-their-police-departments/?sh=487f6d6b29e3

Crime not increasing?  It is here in Seattle. 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-continues-to-go-backward-on-crime-as-much-as-30-years-back/

Maybe you are not reading the news carefully.  This is the reality of the current situation. 

Violent crime is rising.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131825858/us-crime-data-midterm-elections

Why did SF fire their prosecutor?  Because he was not prosecuting.    That's the reality whether you like to see it or not.  

I did not cite one source you folks figured I would.   It is so apparent the main stream media is even reporting it. 

mspart

[Ban Basketball]

Hunter Biden!

Open Borders!

Inflation Nation!

[Nailbender]

9 hours ago, Ban Basketball said:

Hunter Biden!

Open Borders!

Inflation Nation!

Black lives matter!

My body my choice!

Living wage!

 

I don't understand what we're doing.

 

It's also the last time I'll be addressing someone who randomly shouts current events. If these topics interest you, start a thread. I'm sure you'll find a taker. If not, stop it, it's creepy.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Nailbender

[Ban Basketball]

3 hours ago, Nailbender said:

Black lives matter!

My body my choice!

Living wage!

 

I don't understand what we're doing.

 

It's also the last time I'll be addressing someone who randomly shouts current events. If these topics interest you, start a thread. I'm sure you'll find a taker. If not, stop it, it's creepy.

Nice try at a "comeback," but, unfortunately, you clearly don't get the pernt of my "current events" posts.  LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is a tall order on a rasslin forum, but is there a deciphering eye in the house that can notice the substantive difference between the "current events" post above and the ones that I routinely use?

Edited November 19, 2022 by Ban Basketball

[Ban Basketball]

18 hours ago, mspart said:

The guy that ran over police cadets in CA is out of holding now.   That's reality.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-11-17/investigation-into-whittier-crash-continues

Driver is released after arrest in deputy recruit crash that sheriff called ‘deliberate act’

This is repeated over and over.  

 

Cutting funding for police.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/08/13/at-least-13-cities-are-defunding-their-police-departments/?sh=487f6d6b29e3

Crime not increasing?  It is here in Seattle. 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-continues-to-go-backward-on-crime-as-much-as-30-years-back/

Maybe you are not reading the news carefully.  This is the reality of the current situation. 

Violent crime is rising.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131825858/us-crime-data-midterm-elections

Why did SF fire their prosecutor?  Because he was not prosecuting.    That's the reality whether you like to see it or not.  

I did not cite one source you folks figured I would.   It is so apparent the main stream media is even reporting it. 

mspart

As I suspecked, anecdotes.  Unfortunately, anecdotes aren't much use to us in da bidness of social science.  So, no, your work that you tried to do for me won't be of use to me.

HOWEVER, I do like the NPR link, as it negates your very own pernt where you tried to claim that crime is rising.  The article says exactly the opposite.  LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On the bright side, though, that information IS of use to me for my job.  Thanks for your work for me!

[Crotalus]

and there is a no bail thing going on.

[mspart]

https://westseattleblog.com/2022/10/crime-watch-followup-arson-suspect-arrested-hours-after-judge-released-him-in-another-case/

Never happens. 

https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/1/9/22875181/bail-reform-release-program-participants-rearrested

In all,  four out of every 10 individuals placed in the supervised release program from Jan. 1, 2020 through June 2021 were rearrested after being freed.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/150-killed-bonds-texas-victims

Criminal suspects released on multiple felony bonds in Texas' most populous county have killed 156 people since 2018, according to victim advocates, who have criticized bail reform efforts that have seen some people charged with violent crimes and released back onto the streets only to violently re-offend.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-county-saw-70-criminal-suspects-released-0-bail-commit-new-crimes-da

"When over 70% of the people released under mandated $0 bail policies go on to commit additional crime(s), including violent offenses such as robbery and murder, there is simply no rational public safety-related basis to continue such a practice post-pandemic, especially in light of the increasing violent crime rates across California," Yolo County District Attorney Jeff Reisig said in a Monday statement.

https://www.crimeinamerica.net/is-bail-reform-dying-43-percent-of-murder-suspects-bailed-or-out/

Darrell E. Brooks, the man who police say was driving the SUV that plowed into a recent holiday parade, killing five and injuring at least 48 people, had been out on $1,000 cash bail after intentionally running over a woman he knew earlier in November, 2021, reports the New York Times.

On the day that Brooks drove into the parade, police were already looking for him after receiving a report of a domestic dispute involving a knife. Brooks has racked up arrests in the Milwaukee area for resisting or obstructing an officer, bail jumping, recklessly endangering safety, disorderly conduct and battery, among other charges. Per CNN, he was a registered sex offender in Nevada and had an active arrest warrant in that state, court records show. The numbers of dead and injured keep rising with later media reports.

The anecdotes continue to pour in.   One might say that it becomes a situation where it is no longer just anecdotal.  We have had a fair number of folks that were arrested here in the Seattle area and let go and they almost immediately do a more heinous crime.   It has been in the local news reports. 

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/man-accused-stabbing-couple-death-seattles-georgetown-appears-court/WMMY2TXVKRF6TBRAKSLPOQARPA/

Williams is well-known among Seattle police officers. He was released from jail just two days before allegedly killing the pair in Georgetown.

The Northwest Community Bail Fund posted Williams’ $3,000 bail a few months earlier for a different violent outburst. Williams is also currently under investigation for an attempted rape.

Court records also show that John Williams was previously arrested 65 times in California.

It is a pattern that is becoming more mainstream.   You may poo poo it all you like, but it is happening and I hope it doesn't happen to any of us. 

mspart

[mspart]

https://www.king5.com/article/news/community/stand-for-truth/king-county-offenders-on-electronic-home-detention-get-a-pass-on-nights-and-weekends/281-56f373c7-415a-4d7b-b353-b393bb0091e1

During the time of COVID, in an effort to create more room in county jails, many judges are assigning more offenders than ever to electronic home monitoring (EHM). 

In this system, a person convicted of crimes like DUI or awaiting trial for charges such as assault, is fitted with an electronic ankle bracelet. In King County, if the offender goes somewhere not allowed, or at a time not allowed, or cuts the device off altogether, employees at the Department of Adult and Juvenile Detention (DAJD) receive an alert.

But the KING 5 Investigators have found DAJD employees aren’t seeing violation alerts on nights and weekends. That office is currently staffed from 7 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., Monday through Friday.

Outside of business hours, if there’s a violation, King County DAJD caseworkers hear about it the next business day. That means if someone offends late on a Friday afternoon, DAJD will find out on Monday morning.

This happened in at least one serious case, KING 5 has found.

In February, a man from Tacoma was charged with domestic violence felony assault for allegedly strangling his pregnant girlfriend in late 2019.  While awaiting trial for that charge, a judge released him from the King County Jail and sentenced him to electronic home monitoring.

On May 15, according to police reports, the man, whose name we are withholding to protect the victim, allegedly strangled the woman again and committed several other crimes in a Federal Way apartment.  

Sorry that this is just an anecdote.   But does it seem unreasonable to monitor these guys 24/7?  Isn't that why they have the ankle bracelet on?

https://komonews.com/news/local/2-teen-fugitive-suspects-in-pawn-shop-robbery-now-prime-suspects-in-tacoma-pot-shop-murder

The Tacoma Police Department said Thursday that is searching for two teen fugitives who cut off their electronic monitoring devices from a previous armed robbery and are now suspects in the murder of a pot shop employee last weekend.

Just a weird thing that is very isolated.   Yeah right.

mspart

 

 

[Ban Basketball]

As I said before,  these are unusual,  anecdotal cases that do not represent what the overall trends and/or data shows us nationally. 

As an Iowan, I could easily say that corn and soybean harvests are through the roof, but may not be so in other grain producing States. That would be an anecdotal case that is not relevant to the rest of the country. 

The inability to decipher between anecdotes and trends is what Tattletale "News" lives off of. As I say,  keeping angry people stupid and uninformed.   It should be criminal,  in my view. 

[mspart]

If you read carefully, I have listed items from all over the country.  Not just my neck of the woods. 

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131825858/us-crime-data-midterm-elections

The FBI's annual crime report for 2021, released earlier this month, says violent crime decreased by 1% from the previous year. But the report is also incomplete, as only 63% of the country's police departments submitted data — and New York City and Los Angeles were not among them.

Is it reasonable to conclude that that stats would rise or fall if NY and LA were included?

In 2015, the FBI announced that it would be switching from its previous system to only using NIBRS beginning in 2021, meaning that as of this year, departments had to submit data via NIBRS or not at all.

As it turns out, many chose the latter. The 63% of law enforcement agencies that submitted data for 2021 marks the lowest level of participation the FBI has reported in decades, and only 52% of them submitted a full 12 months of data.

It takes more effort to log crimes on this new system so NY and LA decided to not participate.   Gee if crime was down, it shouldn't be too onerous don't you think?

There are a lot of crimes that are not being reported because police cannot do much about it.  In Seattle, crime is not much reported.   Starbucks is closing one of it's iconic stores in Seattle.  They is closing a lot of stores due to crime and safety issues.   https://nypost.com/2022/07/12/starbucks-to-close-16-us-stores-over-crime-rampant-drug-use/

Target lost 400 million due to theft and expects to lose 600 million next year.   My son worked there.   The store does nothing to stop shop lifters, so the next most logical thought is that they will get more of them.   That is an easy cause and effect thought process.  https://www.businessinsider.in/retail/news/target-said-its-lost-400-million-this-year-due-to-inventory-shrink-and-organized-retail-crime-is-mostly-to-blame/articleshow/95588831.cms

It's not just anecdotal, it is happening all over the place. 

mspart

 

[Mike Parrish]

You presume to know what missing data will show.
This smacks of confirmation bias.

[jross]

In KC.  I sent my young boy alone to grab the cooler from my truck during a rec baseball game this past July.  Some criminal was under the truck stealing my gas.  It cost me $800 to tow, repair, etc.  I am thankful the dude was leaving just before my son got there, as there was no chance for violence toward my son.  Within two weeks, two local friends had their Catalytic Converters stolen.  In the same month, my buddy's car was broken into in California.

Crime is up, in my experience!

[jross]

It cracks me up when people talk about violent crime being down while excluding the worse type of violence, murder.

[Mike Parrish]

13 minutes ago, jross said:

In KC.  I sent my young boy alone to grab the cooler from my truck during a rec baseball game this past July.  Some criminal was under the truck stealing my gas.  It cost me $800 to tow, repair, etc.  I am thankful the dude was leaving just before my son got there, as there was no chance for violence toward my son.  Within two weeks, two local friends had their Catalytic Converters stolen.  In the same month, my buddy's car was broken into in California.

Crime is up, in my experience!

The plural of anecdote is not data.

[jross]

It is hard to argue with the lifetime of one's personal experience.  Two months later, my FIL went to the Ozarks and found his boat had been drained of 200 gallons of gas.  None of us five victims had experienced this before in our 40+ years of life.  Suddenly we all do within a couple of months of each other.  How weird.  Not all of us reported it to the police because we've observed that nothing would happen anyway.

[Crotalus]

2 minutes ago, jross said:

It is hard to argue with the lifetime of one's personal experience.  Two months later, my FIL went to the Ozarks and found his boat had been drained of 200 gallons of gas.  None of us five victims had experienced this before in our 40+ years of life.  Suddenly we all do within a couple of months of each other.  How weird.  Not all of us reported it to the police because we've observed that nothing would happen anyway.

I live less than a half an hour from Baltimore and I've had no crimes committed against me (unless you count god awful driving). So clearly crime is down. 

[jross]

The year isn't even over... KC

Edited November 23, 2022 by jross

[jross]

1 minute ago, Crotalus said:

I live less than a half an hour from Baltimore and I've had no crimes committed against me (unless you count god awful driving). So clearly crime is down. 

Let's say you are on a sports team with 14 people, and 3 of the 14 experience a vehicle theft-type crime within a few months of each other, at different locations, for the first and only time in their life.  Coincidence?

[Crotalus]

3 minutes ago, jross said:

Let's say you are on a sports team with 14 people, and 3 of the 14 experience a vehicle theft-type crime within a few months of each other, at different locations, for the first and only time in their life.  Coincidence?

Probably. 

[Mike Parrish]

I live an hour south of San Francisco.

I have suffered no crime here.

Therefore San Francisco is totally without crime, right?